자칭궈 북경대 국제관계학원 교수는 미국이 대만에 대한 중국의 주권을 침해함으로써 미중 양국의 군사적 충돌 가능성을 높이고 있으며, 이에 따라 중국은 기존에 유지해 온 ‘최소억지(minimum deterrence)’와 ‘핵 선제 불사용(no first use)’ 등의 핵 전략을 재고할 수밖에 없다고 주장합니다. 아울러 자칭궈 교수는 바이든 정부와 의회가 중국에 대한 내정 간섭과 핵 비확산 원칙을 져버리는 행보를 멈추고 미중의 공동 이익 영역을 중심으로 협력 방안을 모색해야 한다고 강조합니다.
※︎ 본 인터뷰 내용은 “핵 경쟁과 동아시아 안보위기: 한미중 대북정책과 군사충돌 시나리오”를 주제로 한 Global NK 국제회의 첫번째 세션에서 발표되었습니다.
I. The term "strategic competition" is "untraditional, misleading, and U.S.-imposed."
• The term “strategic competition” is “imposed” on China by the U.S., and China has never accepted this term. China believes that this term does not adequately capture the complicated bilateral relationship. Outright “public” competition is untraditional for Chinese—instead, Chinese tend to compete under the table.
II. U.S. attempts to revise the commitments established during China-U.S. normalization.
• United States’ determination to engage in a “strategic competition” has resulted in a distinct pattern of behavior that makes the relationship more difficult and confrontational. Trump and Biden have both been pursuing high-tech decoupling, supply chain redirection, and military preparation in places of China’s interest.
• Of all U.S. actions, China is most concerned about U.S. challenge against the territorial sovereignty and integrity over Taiwan. Under this circumstance, China is rethinking its national strategy.
• Since Biden came into office, U.S. policy toward China has become less volatile and outright provocative. Yet Congress poses the problem—it has become increasingly proactive over Taiwan, passing bills and resolutions unfavorable to China.
• While U.S. “containment” policy against China aims to take away China’s stake in the international order, China must be stronger and more capable to “wreck the [U.S.-led] order” if it finds interest in doing so.
III. If U.S. continues pressuring China on Taiwan problem, China must reconsider.
• China’s nuclear policy has been based on three pillars: (1) minimum in number, (2) no first use, and (3) nonproliferation. With growing U.S. threat, there is growing voices in China calling for a stronger stance.
• In short, U.S. should stop meddling with Taiwan and engage with China. It is never too late to stop confrontation and seek cooperation. ■
※ Please cite accordingly when referencing this source.
■ JIA, Qingguo is a Professor of the School of International Studies at Peking University.
■ 담당 및 편집: 박지수, EAI 연구원
문의: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr
