.a_wrap {font-size:14px; font-family:Nanum Gothic, Sans-serif, Arial; line-height:20px;}     Introduction In the first episode of [Global Inter-NK-View], (Part 2: Four major frameworks and Global North Korea), Dr. Young-Sun Ha (Chairman of the Board of Trustees at EAI; Professor Emeritus at Seoul National University) explains about the website called Global North Korea, managed by East Asia Institute, and discusses the four major frameworks and the proper method of analyzing North Korean documents. As part of the Global North Korea project, EAI has been conducting the ‘Global Inter-NK-View: Expert Views on North Korea’ to provide timely analysis on the North Korean issue through interviews with experts. The content of this interview reflects the interviewee’s opinions and not those of the East Asia Institute. Please make sure to use proper references when citing Global NK.  

.a_wrap {font-size:14px; font-family:Nanum Gothic, Sans-serif, Arial; line-height:20px;}     Introduction In the first episode of [Global Inter-NK-View], (Part 1: Current Status and Future of the North Korean Issue), Dr. Young-Sun Ha (Chairman of the Board of Trustees at EAI; Professor Emeritus at Seoul National University) discusses the different calculations and definitions of denuclearization of the U.S. and North Korea, as well as the possibility of an agreement between the two countries.  As part of the Global North Korea project, EAI has been conducting the ‘Global Inter-NK-View: Expert Views on North Korea’ to provide timely analysis on the North Korean issue through interviews with experts. The content of this interview reflects the interviewee’s opinions and not those of the East Asia Institute. Please make sure to use proper references when citing Global NK.  

Stephan M. Haggard is the Lawrence and Sallye Krause Professor of Korea-Pacific Studies at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) Graduate School of International Relations and is the director of Korea-Pacific Program (KPP). He is the editor of the Journal of East Asian Studies and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Professor Haggard has written extensively on the political economy of North Korea with Marcus Noland, including Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid, and Reform (2007), Witness to Transformation: Refugee Insights into North Korea (2011), and "Hard Target: Sanctions., Inducements and the Case of North Korea" (2017). Haggard maintains the "North Korea: Witness to Transformation" blog and has a regular column with the Joongang Daily.     Summary Stephan Haggard, editor of the EAI Journal of East Asian Studies and professor at UC San Diego, provides his thoughts on the June 12th US-North Korea Summit and the implications for the East Asian region. He argues that the signed document from the summit was weak; it lacked specific timelines and objectives on denuclearization. More alarming, however, was President Trump’s decision to halt US-ROK military exercises suggesting that they were “provocative” and akin to “war games.” Additionally, Professor Haggard along with other North Korea watchers is concerned that there are competing interpretations on what actually compelled Kim Jong Un to negotiate. President Trump claims that he induced Kim to the bargaining table, yet before that, Kim was the one who started the Olympic charm offensive. Professor Haggard is concerned that reducing pressure now may extend the length of the negotiation process. He also discusses economic issues including sanctions relief, the various models that North Korea may pursue, and the challenges it faces in attracting foreign direct investment due to the country’s weak protection of property rights. Professor Haggard closes with predictions over what future US-North Korea negotiations might look like. Through our Smart Q&A series, the East Asia Institute (EAI) seeks to offer timely and in-depth analysis on current issues by conducting video interviews with domestic and international experts. EAI takes no institutional position on what is said in the interviews and they are solely the position of the interviewees. This interview was prepared by Natalie Grant and the summary was prepared by David Myung.   [Smart Q&A: Stephan Haggard] The Impact and Implication of Economic Sanctions on North Korea Foreign Policy of the New U.S. Administration, East Asia and the Korean PeninsulaⅠ [Smart Q&A: Stephan Haggard] The Impact and Implication of Economic Sanctions on North Korea    

NISHINO Junya Professor, Keio University (Japan)

CHUN Chae Sung Professor, Seoul National University (Republic of Korea)

Kenneth GAUSE Director, International Affairs Group at Center for Naval Analyses (United States)

Georgy TOLORAYA Director, Asian Strategy Center at the Russian Academy of Sciences (Russia)

  Stephan M. Haggard is the Lawrence and Sallye Krause Professor of Korea-Pacific Studies at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) Graduate School of International Relations and is the director of Korea-Pacific Program (KPP). He is the editor of the Journal of East Asian Studies and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Professor Haggard has written extensively on the political economy of North Korea with Marcus Noland, including Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid, and Reform (2007) and Witness to Transformation: Refugee Insights into North Korea (2011). Haggard and Noland are co-author of the "North Korea: Witness to Transformation" blog at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.   Summary   How successful have the recent series of economic sanctions on North Korea, imposed by the UNSC, the US and the EU respectively, been in achieving their original goals? What implications will they have in the future? Stephan Haggard, Distinguished Professor at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies (IR/PS) at UC San Diego (UCSD), argues that even though the current sanctions regime stipulate measures obviously stronger than what was implemented by the sanctions in the past, whether the measures will have actual impact will be determined largely by China's cooperation in the enforcement and observance of the measures. Pointing out that China's usually participation in the UNSC resolution 2270 was in no small part motivated by the recent drive for industrial reform and economic development in the Northeast region as well as China's interest in preventing the escalation of the North Korean nuclear crisis, he advises that South Korea and the US should convince China that the ultimate goal of the sanctions will not destabilize the Korean peninsula as a consequence of inducing regime change or collapse. In addition, he suggests that a strict enforcement of the current sanctions might drive the North Korean economy, which has opened up rapidly in recent years, towards a sudden financial crisis, and concludes with a cautious prediction that economy collapse may precede regime collapse.   With Smart Q&A, East Asia Institute (EAI) seeks to offer timely and in-depth analysis on current issues by conducting video interviews with domestic and international experts. EAI takes no institutional position on what is said in the interviews and they are solely the position of the interviewees. This interview and the summary were prepared by Jiwon Ra.