The North Korean nuclear problem and the future of the Korean Peninsula has become one of the most significant issues deciding the security and stability of the Korean people and the East Asian region. Differences of strategies and debates have contributed to the dynamic search for a solution to the North Korean nuclear problem and the right course for North Korea’s future. Both incentives and disincentives will help the North Korean leadership choose the right path for the North Korean people and the whole Peninsula.

 

The proper combination of essential alternatives such as sanctions, deterrence, engagement and assisting North Korea in undergoing internal transformation will be important. International society shares the wish for North Korea to become a normal state with a proper global status. This website aims to provide articles and video on North Korea produced by governments, policy institutes, media, and think tanks to track the evolution of these strategies and their impact.

 

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Commentary Issue Briefing
[Global NK Commentary] The Trend of Strengthened UNC and its Role After the Transition of Wartime Operational Control

.a_wrap {font-size:14px; font-family:Nanum Gothic, Sans-serif, Arial; line-height:20px;} ■ You can visit our Global North Korea site to view the original text or download the pdf.   Editor's Note A recent series of incidents, including the termination of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) and the increased sharing of defense costs, have raised concerns about the South Korea-US relationship and the role of the UNC over the transfer of wartime operational control between the two countries. Adjunct professor Kyung-young Chung of Hanyang University states that “The issue with the UNC is not limited to its role following the transition of wartime OPCON. There is a need to comprehensively approach the role of the UNC within the armistice structure and in the future under a peace treaty.” He suggests that the role and function of the UNC in the future should be established in a win-win manner for Korea and the UNC. Professor Chung argues that by making the DMZ a peace zone and reorganizing the five permanent members of the UNSC, the two Koreas, the member states of the UNC, when the reorganized UNC performs its function of overseeing the peace treaty there will be no bloodshed and it will guide the way to reunification.     In the latter half of 2019, a combined command post exercise was held between the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC) as part of the assessment of the initial operation capability for the transition of wartime Operational Control Authority (OPCON). During this time, a report emerged on the controversy between the ROK and U.S. over the role of the UN Command (UNC) following the transition of wartime OPCON, and since then, such controversy has been amplified. The issue with the UNC is not limited to its role following the transition of wartime OPCON. There is a need to comprehensively approach the role of the UNC within the armistice structure and in the future under a peace treaty. This article aims at a historical review of the UNC and reinforcement of its capabilities and the meaning and background of the pursuit to transition wartime OPCON following the implied drawdown, and discusses the role and command relations between the UNC and the future CFC during the armistice and wartime after the transition. It then explores the role of the UNC in implementing inter-Korean comprehensive military agreement and  driving future arms control as well as signing a peace treaty, followed by policy recommendations.   The Strengthening of UNC Capabilities and its Implications When North Korea invaded the south on June 25, 1950, the UN Security Council (UNSC) called for an immediate cessation of hostilities on June 26 and adopted a resolution to demand that all forces be moved north of the 38th parallel. The North Korean regime did not cease its attack and on June 27, the UNSC adopted UNSCR No. 83, requiring its member states to offer assistance in restoring international peace and security. In response to this, on July 6, a unified command was established under the United States and its commander was appointed by the U.S. government. UNSCR 84 was passed requiring periodic reports be made to the UNSC on the status of operations. The Truman administration appointed General Douglas MacArthur, commander of the United States Army Forces in the Far East, as the UNC Commander. On July 14, 1950, President Syngman Rhee sent an official letter to General MacArthur stating that “I am happy to assign to you command authority over all land, sea, and air forces of the Republic of Korea during the period of the continuation of the present state of hostilities,” and on October 7, 1950, the UN General Assembly recommended the “establishment of a unified independent, and democratic government of Korea” and the resolution (A/RES/376(V)) was passed. On July 27, 1953 when the armistice agreement was signed, the member states of UNC made a declaration that in the event of outbreak of war again on the Peninsula, the nations who had joined the UNC would once again fight, in an announcement titled “Declaration of the sixteen nations participating in the Korean War.” On February 19, 1954, the UNC and the Japanese government signed the SOFA agreement, and it was made so that the UNC forces use United States Navy and Air Force Base in Japan. On November 17, 1954, in accordance with the Agreed Minutes which stated “The UNC continues to exercise operational control over the ROK forces as far as the UN forces remain to defend the Republic of Korea.” On July 1, 1957, the UNC moved from Tokyo to Seoul, and the UNC commander doubled as the USFK commander. On November 7, 1978, in accordance with Strategic Directive No. 1, the ROK-U.S. CFC was established and the operational control over the ROK forces, which had prior to this date been conducted by the UNC, was transferred over to the CFC while the UNC capacity to enforce the armistice continued under the direction of the UNSC and the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. The CFC should carry out its mission by the strategic directive and operational guidance of the Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) and Military Committee Meeting (MCM) to deter war, and should this deterrence fail, to win the war. On December 1, 1994, in accordance with Strategic Directive No. 2, peacetime operational control was transferred from the CFC to the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff, while the CFC retained responsibility for Combined Delegated Authority (CODA) such as crisis management, intelligence surveillance, wartime operational plan development and combined exercises, and interoperability during peacetime. With regard to the capacity strengthening of UN forces, in 1983 the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff maintained a separate legal and military system from the UNC in the case of war breaking out again on the Korean Peninsula and the UNC issued Terms of Reference (TOR) regarding the use of forces, which was later issued as General Order No. 1 by U.S. JCS in 1998. Further, in January of 2003 Donald Rumsfeld, then-US Secretary of Defense, instructed Leon J. Laporte, UNC Commander, to include additional force providers in addition to the UNC member states. Accordingly, in 2008 the UNC organized a Multinational Coordination Center (MNCC) for UN forces as a reference of the U.S. Central Command Multinational Coordination Center, In 2009, UNC MNCC members including Australia, France, and others participated in the combined military exercise Ulgii Freedom Guardian. In 2014, UNC Commander Curtis M. Scaparrotti instituted a revitalization program and pushed to expand the role of the UNC. Vincent K. Brooks, who assumed command of the UNC in 2016, appointed the first non-American Lieutenant General Wayne D. Eyre (a Canadian) deputy commander of the UNC. The UNC carried out measures to reduce the concurrent staff appointment of the UNC and CFC for the operation of the UNC independent from the USFK and ROK-US CFC while pursuing dialogue with North Korea and carrying out the armistice intelligence operations, expanding the appointment to third country UN officers. They also asked South Korea for UNC staff personnel, but they have not yet sent anyone. Further, in line with the trend of the increasingly independent role of the UNC, these forces have increased their participation in ROK-US combined exercises and the UNC Commander has hosted monthly meeting from the ambassador corps of member states of the UNC. Australia, France, and eight other countries have sent staff personnel each to serve at the UNC, increasing its total staff by two to three times and thereby reinforcing and expanding its capacity. In particular, when tensions on the Korean Peninsula were at their height on January 16, 2018, a foreign ministerial meeting in Vancouver supporting talks between the two Koreas had participants from 20 countries, including the U.S. and foreign ministers from the sixteen member states of the UNC. During the meeting, participants also devised additional countermeasures to contingencies on the Korean Peninsula. During the 50th SCM in 2018, the ROK Minister of Defense and the US Secretary of Defense agreed on a new command structure for the future CFC along with the transition of wartime OPCON with a four-star general from the ROK forces as the commander and a four-star general from the U.S. as the deputy commander. It was also reconfirmed that following the transition of wartime OPCON, the UNC and USFK would remain. On July 27, 2019, Australian Vice Admiral Stuart Mayer was appointed as the second deputy commander as non-U.S. General of the UNC Strengthening the capacity of the UNC in these ways takes into consideration the lessons learned from the Iraq War, where decisive action was taken without a UNSC resolution and limited alliance forces entered into a difficult battle. Wartime on the Korean Peninsula already has an established UNSC resolution, with multinational coalition forces led by the current UNC likely to be more effective than the ROK-U.S. CFC. There is a current push to expand the role of the UNC as well. The role of strengthened UNC is clear within the Korean Peninsula under the current armistice, and would be one of deterrence in the event of a war. Were a peace treaty to be signed, the UNC would likely develop their capacity to supervise a peace treaty and act as peacekeeping forces, containing China and other such tasks as part of the Indo-Pacific strategy of a Northeast Asian version of NATO, and therefore could not be eliminated.  What was the background and motivation behind the U.S. agreement to make the deputy commander of the future ROK-U.S. CFC a four-star American general? Together with a forward-thinking assessment of the ability of ROK forces to conduct theater operations on the Korean Peninsula, as deputy commander of the CFC, the USFK commander can smoothly demand reinforced deployment off the Peninsula. If a three-star general performs the duties of the deputy commander of the CFC, the UNC commander or, and USFK commander has authority to give guidance to and demand troublesome reports from the USFK commander as well as authority gap between commanding and deputy commanding officers due to the nature of the structure of the military. If it is organized such that the rank command structure is flat rather than hierarchical, these limitations can be overcome. The UNC commander will be part of the future CFC command structure and will be capable of enacting deterrence through combined exercises under the armistice. If a war occurs, the UNC’s authority for occupying North Korea also cannot be excluded. If this assessment becomes reality, we also cannot eliminate the possibility that either the CFC will conduct operations in the event of a war in parallel with the UNC or that wartime operational control will be retransferred from the CFC to the UNC so that they can engage in war under a unified command system. Should this occur, it will be nothing but a justification for the transition of war operational control and the entire architecture of the ROK military will be challenged.   The Background and Meaning of Transition of Wartime Operational Control Here, it is necessary to conduct a critical examination of why there is a pursuit for the transition of wartime operational control and what the objectives and meaning of such a transition would be. The pursuit for the transition of operational control in the early 1970s was part of a drive for self-reliant national defense and evolved into a symbol of the Koreanization of South Korean defense. After the transition of peacetime operational control in 1994, as the 21st century approached, the ROK military grew to world-class, with overwhelming national power surpassing that of North Korea, an enhanced international status as well as high degree of national pride such that it became able to lead the ROK-U.S. combined defense system. Meanwhile, the US pursued a realignment of its overseas military bases in accordance with the Global Posture Review (GPR) to cope with terrorism and the latent threat posed by China. The push for the new CFC system led by South Korea with American support varies in accordance with the strategic flexibility of the USFK to handle the North Korea threat and others in the Indo-Pacific region simultaneously, and this is realized through the transition of wartime operational control. In June 2017, the Moon Jae-in administration agreed through the ROK-U.S. summit that “cooperation between the allies must continue to ensure that the condition-based transition of wartime operational control proceeds as early as possible.” One of the items on the list of the 100 policy tasks announced by the Moon administration on July 9, 2017 was the pursuit to “take the earlier step to transition wartime operational control on the steadfast basis of the ROK-US alliance.” Further, at a memorial event on Armed Forces Day on October 1, 2018, President Moon emphasized “Our military must first and foremost protect the lives and safety of our people no matter what risks they face, and we must prepare ourselves to take the lead in the operational control of our land, our skies, and our seas.” If the transition of wartime operational control is a symbol of an independent country, then naturally it is a goal that must be attained. It is the determination to lessen the dependence of the owners of this land of South Korea on the alliance and lead the souls and spirit of the Korean people, their home soil and democracy, through their own will, capacity, and strategy. The exercise of wartime operational control by the ROK military means the restoration of the country’s national defense identity and the autonomy of military power employment authority. When we face the reality that North Korea’s nuclear arsenal might be a measure taken for the purpose of forcible reunification, the transition of wartime operational control establishes a country that can defend itself in the event of war and deter against the calamity of a nuclear war. In addition, the transition of wartime operational control would be an opportunity to boost the spirits of the ROK military and raise the self-esteem of the nation, and it would also restore the trust of the nation in the military. There is a need to pursue the exercise of wartime operational control as a unification strategy in both war and peacetime, and when the transition occurs it can perform the function of a peace making role. Further, in the event of a war on the Korean Peninsula, ROK-led wartime operational control will block the entry justification of China and can achieve reunification. The transition of wartime operational control refers to the historical meaning behind the phrase, “Koreanization of Korean defense,” which has been emphasized since the end of the Cold War. In addition, OPCON transition to ROK is something that the North Korean military fears. The North Korean military cannot but recognize that in war and peacetime, under a unified system of command, the ROK military will have the authority to enact retaliation, and because it is clear that ROK forces will be able to respond immediately to North Korean military provocations, they will not dare to make such challenges. It is because the ROK military will conduct immediate and resolute retaliation against the origin of such provocations, which may even mean retaliation North Korea’s command and support forces. Further, with the transition of wartime operational control, South Korea, which is indebted to the ROK-US alliance for its 11th largest economic power and political democratization, will be praised as a model alliance once it achieves the Koreanization of its defense. The transition will also grant diplomatic autonomy, allowing South Korea the opportunity to expand its horizons on the international stage. It will also spur development of a doctrine that is unique to the Korean Peninsula’s area of operations and military strategy, and naturally contribute a great deal to the promotion of the national interest through developing weapons to fight and win; advance the defense industry and create numerous jobs; and stimulate the export of defense weapons.   The Role of UNC After the Transition of Wartime Operational Control Let us now turn to the relationship between the UNC, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the future CFC following the transition of wartime OPCON, both under the armistice and in wartime. Even after the transition, the UNC will continue to play the key role in managing the armistice structure in accordance with the armistice rules of engagement. This will be done so that the UNC commander can fulfill his responsibility to abide by the armistice agreement in accordance with Article 17 of the agreement, which states that “Responsibility for compliance with and enforcement of the terms and provisions of this Armistice Agreement is that of the signatories hereto and their successors in command.” The Joint Chiefs of Staff argue that they should also maintain the authority to respond to local provocations during peacetime even after the transition of wartime operational control has been completed. The UNC has decisively contributed to deterrence on the Korean Peninsula, but they have failed in their efforts to deter local provocations. South Korea’s rights to manage its military power have been restricted, and it has not had the freedom to criticize the fact that the ROK military has been unable to fulfill its natural role of protecting its national sovereignty, territory, and the lives of the Korean people. During this time, one reason that the South Korean military has failed to deter provocations from the North Korean military is that under the armistice rules of engagement for UNC, the ROK army must get approval from upward headquarters to respond against weapons that have a high fatality rate under the proportion principle. As a result, they have missed the opportunity to fire back, and North Korea, sensing this vulnerability, has engaged in tremendous provocations and terrorism since the armistice agreement was signed in 1953. Robert M. Gates, the former US Secretary of Defense, wrote in his autobiography Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War “We had to deal with a very dangerous crisis beginning on November 23, 2010 when the North Koreans unleashed an artillery barrage at the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong. South Korea’s original plans for retaliation were, we thought, disproportionately aggressive, involving both aircraft and artillery. We were worried the exchanges could escalate dangerously. The president, Clinton, Mullen, and I were all on the phone often with our South Korean counterparts over a period of days, and ultimately South Korea simply returned artillery fire on the location of the North Koreans’ batteries that had started the whole affair.” Although he said this was done in consideration of the potential for conflict to spill over into a war, the North Korean military should have been drastically punished for its attack and invasion on South Korean territory made in broad daylight, and we should have stood resolute in the face of battle. In March of 2013, it was announced that General Chung Seung-jo, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and General James D. Thurman, UNC commander, had signed a Joint Counter-local provocations plan. It stated that in the event of local provocations from the North Korean military, the ROK army naturally has the right of self-defense to conduct immediate and resolute retaliation against the origin of such provocations, and the UNC needed to devise measures to prevent escalation such as allowing supplemental forces to be rapidly deployed from the U.S. side. As discussed above, in the event of another war on the Korean Peninsula, the UNC and CFC maintain a separate legal and military system, and including supplemental forces from the US, in accordance with the agreement and the UNC general order for the UNC under the UNC commander, when the high command is appointed to lead UNC combat operations, a conflict will arise with the position of the ROK that naturally the future CFC should become the singular wartime command for the Korean Peninsula’s theater of operations. In the rare event that this baseless fear comes to pass, warfare execution will not be sufficient and the results will be a mess. During the Korean War, the lessons learned from the dual command structure of land operations were severe. During the counteroffensive operations, land operations were transferred over to the Eighth U.S. Army, which had been in charge of the Western zone. At this stage, the main body of 10th U.S. Corps, which had landed in Incheon, moved toward Wonsan by sea. It was also a separate command system from the land troops in the eastern zone. Both 8th Army and 10th Corps were under the direct command of General MacArthur. When the Chinese army entered the war by breaching the boundary held by the two U.S. troops, they did not engage in joint, coordinated operations, and the resulting military operation was such a disaster that the dual command system has never been repeated. Accordingly, in the event of a war on the Korean Peninsula, the future CFC will have to be a single Korean Peninsula theater HQs, and the UNC will play the role of providing forces. The CFC will achieve a unity of command by hand-over of UNC fighting units in the manner of tactical control. Further, if a natural disaster such as the eruption of Mt. Baekdu occurs and a UNSC resolution is passed or North Korea requests assistance, the future CFC should conduct humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR). North Korea is not a foreign country, and HA/DR or peace enforcement operations should be conducted through a singular command structure of the future CFC in consideration of the principle of national self-determination, the special relationship between the two Koreas under the Basic Agreement as two Koreas working towards reunification, Article 3 of the Constitution, which states “The territory of the Republic of Korea shall consist of the Korean Peninsula and its adjacent islands.” New CFC commander will also have deep understanding of the North Korean military, the operational area, language, and so on.   The Role of the UN under an Inter-Korean Peace Accord The September 19 comprehensive military agreement between the two Koreas was reached under the close consultation of the UNC, and maintained the spirit of the armistice agreement touching on subjects such as the demilitarization of the DMZ. In particular, as it is managed by a three-party consultative body consisting of the two Koreas and the UNC, the role of the UNC is meaningful in implementing demilitarization by reaching an agreement to carry out the demilitarization of Panmunjom. The UNC, along with recovered Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission, personnel from Poland and the Czech Republic with Switzerland and Sweden, will be able to play the role of overseeing the implementation of inter-Korean comprehensive military agreement. In the future, the UNC can closely cooperate with this body to push for an inter-Korean arms control agreement and the UNC will be able to perform oversight on arms control. The role of UNC in inter-Korean cooperation has been ongoing as they maintain jurisdiction authority in accordance with the agreement signed on October 3, 2010 with the ROK Ministry of Defense, entitled “Memorandum of Understanding between the ROK Ministry of Defense and UNC regarding a railway passage through the DMZ connecting North and South Korea.” In accordance with the agreement, the ROK military retains administrative authority and by providing military support to inter-Korean military cooperation, can contribute to the settlement of peace on the Korean Peninsula. Let us now turn to the role of the UNC in signing a peace treaty. The future of the UNC could be controversial. Because North Korea would no longer be considered a hostile nation with a peace treaty in place, the threat would disappear and there will be no reason for the UNC’s existence. In the meantime, the UNC was established in accordance with UNSCR 83 and 84. Transformation of the armistice agreement into a peace treaty would have no particular impact on its existence. The UN General Assembly’s resolution would still be effective in “the establishment of an independent, unified, democratic Korean government on October 7, 1950.” These two positions are in conflict with one another. When we look at the opinions of the future of the UNC held by countries which have a stake in the matter, we see that the US believes that the UNC should continue to exist in order to manage peace on the Korean Peninsula and maintain order in Northeast Asia; the North Korean perception that the UNC is nothing but a stumbling block on the path to unification in their manner and must be dissolved when a peace agreement has been achieved; China’s argument that the UNC is the main force of Western containment against it and their siege mentality that it must be dissolved; and Japan’s position that the UNC should continue to exist, and in the event that the South Korean government decides otherwise, the UNC should return to Tokyo to strengthen Japan’s security. The anticipated problems of the dissolution of the UNC upon the signing of a peace treaty include the fact that its authority to operate a rear command will cease to exist, and also implies that the resolution adopted by the countries that fought during the Korean War to fight again should another war break out on the Korean Peninsula will also vanish, and further, the veto power of China and Russia means that it is highly unlikely that a UNSC resolution for sending combat troops from member states of the UN would be able to pass. In addition, there are no organizations with any binding power which exist to oversee the implementation of the peace treaty. Finally, when it comes to efforts, the roles and missions of the ROK-U.S. Alliance, UNC and USFK should be agreed on by our two allies, prior to peace talks. An important part of this conversation is to pay close attention to the lessons learned from the Paris Peace Accord at the end of the Vietnam War. First, all parties should have be equal in status. However, the U.S and North Vietnam were the primary parties: South Vietnam and the National Liberation Front were supplementary parties. Second, legislative ratification should have taken place. However, the U.S. Congress did not ratify the Paris Peace Accord. Third, the various parties should have established a binding mechanism in the event of violation. However, that didn’t happen as all foreign troops were withdrawn.   Conclusions and Policy Recommendations The recent strengthening of the capacity of the UNC may be increasingly effective in the armistice system, but also has the potential to prepare for the signing of a peace treaty and to play a peacekeeping role. Further, in the event of a war on the Korean Peninsula, we cannot disregard the possibility that the UNC will take on the role of war-fighting HQs and sub-regional collective security arrangement for the purpose of containing the revisionist power of China and others as part of the Indo-Pacific strategy, or develop into a Northeast Asian NATO-type alliance. No matter what happens, South Korean and the UNC need to establish the role and capacity of the UNC in a win-win manner. As a change to the fundamental frame of national security, the transition of wartime operational control must maintain respect for the role of the UNC during the peacetime as the overseer of the armistice agreement. Further, the UNC must supplement the armistice rules of engagement to restore the right of the ROK military to manage its own military strength and exercise self-defense and retaliate immediately against any North Korean provocations. The future command structure between the CFC and the UNC should be coordination and support relations, not subordinate relations, but one wherein the UNC play force provider for the future CFC which will exercise singular wartime command in the theater of operations of the Korean Peninsula in the event of a war. The combat troops of the UNC should transfer tactical control to the future CFC and unify the command structure. Prior to signing a peace treaty on the Korean Peninsula, it will demand in-depth negotiations between the ROK and the US on the future of the UNC. As the oversight organization of the peace agreement, they may consider different measures such as an inter-Korean joint military committee, the UNC, a reorganized UNC, a Peace Maintenance Organization, and others. When comprehensively analyzing international support, the likelihood of adoption, the real capacity of oversight, national interest, and other such factors, making the DMZ a peace zone and the five permanent members of the UNSC, the two Koreas, the member states of the UNC are reorganized and when the reorganized UNC performs its function of overseeing the peace treaty there will be no bleeding and it will perform the role of guiding the path towards reunification.     ■ Dr. Kyung-young Chung is an adjunct professor at the Graduate School of International Studies at Hanyang University. He graduated from the Korea Military Academy and obtained his Ph.D. in International Politics from the University of Maryland. He was a policy practitioner at the JCS and the CFC along with troop commander of the DMZ and was a policy advisor for the NSC. Dr. Chung taught national security at Korea National Defense University and the Catholic University. His main research and teaching areas are the ROK-U.S. military relations, the North Korean military, security cooperation, international relations in Northeast Asia, and international political economy. He is the author of Future Security Challenges and Determination towards a unified Korea, Territorial Dispute and International Cooperation in East Asia (ed.), and the co-author of North Korea and Security Cooperation in Northeast Asia(London: Ashgate).   ■ Typeset by Jinkyung Baek, Research Associate/Project Manager             For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 209) I [email protected]

Kyung-young Chung 2020-06-08Views : 28038
Commentary Issue Briefing
[Global NK Commentary] The Trump Risk and US-North Korea Nuclear Talks

.a_wrap {font-size:14px; font-family:Nanum Gothic, Sans-serif, Arial; line-height:20px;} ■ You can visit our Global North Korea site to view the original text or download the pdf.   Editor's Note In the past few days, there has been various media coverage on the House Democrats’ formal impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump. This impeachment inquiry also raises questions about the future of US-North Korea denuclearization talks. Professor Myung-Koo Kang of Baruch College at City University of New York discusses three different scenarios: big-deal, interim deal, and no-deal. In evaluating the three scenarios, he suggests that an interim deal is more realistic than a big-deal, which "appears to already be dead." Yet "from the perspective of US domestic politics, no deal appears to be the most likely outcome by the end of this year". Hence, Professor Kang proposes that we need to be better prepared for a no deal scenario as well as for "North Korea’s resumption of nuclear and ICBM and SLBM tests in the coming year."     President Trump is in trouble. He is now officially under an impeachment inquiry from the Democrat-led House. We cannot yet predict the final verdict of these impeachment proceedings.  However, we can reasonably anticipate that the political situation in the US will become more volatile, polarized, and uncertain in the coming year. What impact then will domestic politics in the US have upon the ongoing US-North Korea nuclear talks? We can imagine various scenarios—such as a “big deal,” an interim deal, and a “no deal.” The political future of Trump will influence these different scenarios, as he has been the main driver of US government engagement with North Korea. If he were not such an "unconventional" president, those summit meetings with Kim Jong Un lacking any working-level agreements might not have happened at all. He has often boasted of his good relationship with Kim Jong Un until quite recently. Nevertheless, his personalized diplomacy has fundamental weaknesses when it comes to resolving the complex issues endemic to the North Korean nuclear and missile crisis. If his presidency plunges into deeper political challenges, the prospect of making a deal with North Korea will also dim. Moreover, a sustainable agreement with North Korea may not happen at all in the coming year due to the growing political polarization in the US.   Deepening Political Polarization One of the most important reasons for this negative outlook lies in the fact that political polarization will worsen in domestic US politics. Political polarization in the US is at an all-time high. According to a Gallup poll, the approval rating of Trump’s job performance among Republicans has been somewhat on the rise recently, exceeding 90 percent. In contrast, his approval rating among Democrats has continued to decline, reaching below five percent. Indeed, over the past two decades, Republicans have shifted toward the right, and Democrats to the left. As a result, the middle ground has shrunk within both parties while antipathy toward the opposing party has grown. With this rise in partisan antipathy and ideological consistency, the political environment has become increasingly polarized. Trump was elected by appealing to the anger and frustration of white people while targeting the most socially and politically vulnerable group: illegal immigrants. His presidency has aggravated the already worsening politically polarizing social environment. As a result, American society has become further divided along racial and religious lines, and Trump has built a cult-like following among his Republican constituents. Political polarization has reached a dangerous level. Trump tweeted that if he were impeached, there might be a second civil war. Such a threat is not entirely dismissible, considering the strongly mounting support for him among Republicans after the announcement of the impeachment inquiry. This increasing political polarization has also made political compromise more difficult in Washington, which will be further aggravated by the impeachment proceedings and the coming presidential election campaigns. Republicans will rally around Trump, and Democrats will mobilize by rallying supporters around the anti-Trump flag. Until the presidential election ends in November 2020, politics in the US will remain in an anti-Trump vs. pro-Trump spiral. It is unlikely that Democrats will support any deals between Trump and Kim Jong Un considering the increasing tension in Congress. They will work to prevent Trump from taking credit for anything. Even those moderate Democrats who supported Trump's engagement policy with North Korea are likely to withdraw their support during the impeachment and the coming election campaign. In short, the chances of obtaining bipartisan support for any deals with North Korea, which is an essential part of making any big deal with North Korea sustainable, are meager.   Risk Avoidance Under Mounting Uncertainty In addition to the growing political polarization, we can reasonably anticipate that the political atmosphere in Washington will become more uncertain in the coming year. This ever-increasing uncertainty will in turn have huge impacts on the behavior of major political actors. We can expect that when political gain is uncertain, (1) actors are likely to avoid risk, and (2) better-organized actors will gain more than those who are unorganized. If this theoretical view is correct, we can expect that Trump will not risk his presidency by taking bold measures to compensate North Korea in return for a partial freezing of North Korea's nuclear facilities. Of course, he is an "unconventional" president, so he may take bold, unconventional measures to make a big deal with North Korea. But we should note that he is under an impeachment investigation because he attempted to manipulate a foreign government for his personal political gain in the upcoming presidential election. Any deals with rewards to North Korea may not be helpful to him in terms of escaping from his current political troubles. Rather, they would endanger his presidency further. Meanwhile, as Trump's political future becomes increasingly uncertain, security and intelligence agencies will take over the initiative in leading the nuclear talks with North Korea. Trump has been the main driving force behind the ongoing engagement policy with North Korea. If he cannot follow through in ongoing talks with North Korea, these security and intelligence agencies will push their own agenda more explicitly in negotiating with the regime. They may attempt to sabotage the ongoing talks if the aim of the dialogue is limited to a small deal—such as the "freeze for freeze" in which North Korea freezes only the Yongbyon nuclear facilities. Instead, they would prefer to maintain the status quo while going back to the nuclear deterrence strategy, which worked well during the Cold War against the Soviet Union.   A Big Deal Scenario One of the most unlikely outcomes of the ongoing nuclear talks is the so-called "big deal" or “grand bargain” scenario. This was attempted at the Hanoi Summit in February 2019. However, the Summit ended with no deal. In the big deal scenario, North Korea agrees to "complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement" (CVID) or "final, fully verified denuclearization" (FFVD) and in return, the US government provides comprehensive measures to guarantee the security of the North Korean system and regime. This is an all-or-nothing approach, primarily based on the chemistry between the two leaders. Trump has boasted about his good relationship with Kim Jong Un while claiming that a grand bargain is possible between the two. However, his emphasis on personal diplomacy is shaky. The concept of denuclearization is fuzzy and controversial in terms of whether it focuses more on the process or the end state. Without a long period of trust-building between the two governments, not only at the high level but also at the working level, agreement on a road map for denuclearization remains elusive and almost impossible to achieve. Moreover, in the US political context, without bipartisan support, no big deal can successfully go through Congress under the current "divided government" wherein the executive and the legislative branches are at odds with each other. Furthermore, North Korea's request for a security guarantee is very ambiguous. It is not clear at all what a security guarantee really means. North Korea has sent mixed messages on whether it means the full diplomatic normalization between the two countries or the "complete and irreversible withdrawal of the hostile policy" towards the regime. But it is also ambiguous with regard to what the phrase "hostile policy" really means, particularly on whether or not it includes the withdrawal of US forces stationed in South Korea. In fact, it appears that North Korea has emulated CVID by trying to use terms which are as ambiguous as possible as a negotiation tactic. By doing so, the regime can expand the scope of what it considers hostile policy, depending on the progress or regress of negotiations. Indeed, a real strategic interest of North Korea may lie in prolonging the talks with the United States while buying more time to complete its nuclear and missile programs. Currently, the big deal scenario appears to already be dead. Trump fired John Bolton ahead of the recent working-level nuclear talks in Stockholm on October 5, 2019. Bolton had advocated for applying the Libyan model of denuclearization to North Korea and reportedly mentioned it during the Hanoi Summit meeting. Bolton’s firing was interpreted as a signal from Trump to North Korea that he would not follow the Libyan model. According to news reports, during the Stockholm talks, the US government proposed lifting economic sanctions against North Korea's textile and coal exports for 36 months in exchange for the verifiable closure of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities and freezing of uranium enrichment. If these reports are correct, this proposal indicates the shift in the Trump administration’s approach to North Korea’s denuclearization from CVID to a synchronized, gradual, and staged approach. Considering that the Trump administration has repeatedly rejected the "freeze for freeze" proposals from China and North Korea, this shift marks a significant change. Trump may still be tempted to make a big deal as a way of escaping from his current political predicament. However, doing so may be a very risky choice as it will invite more political opposition from Democrats. We should note that the current impeachment inquiry and the investigation by special counsel Mueller began due to his attempt to use foreign influence for his personal gain in elections. It is possible that a similar charge might be applied to any attempts to make rush concessional deals with North Korea. Of course, as an "unconventional" president, Trump may take bold measures—such as agreeing to full diplomatic normalization, along with a peace treaty—to finalize a big deal with North Korea. But, such bold measures will invite more political resistance from Democrats and may further endanger his political future. Without bipartisan support in Congress, such a deal would not last long.   An Interim Deal Scenario A more realistic scenario is a small deal or an interim deal. Trump has boasted that he induced North Korea to stop its nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests in late 2017, claiming credit for the moratorium. Indeed, he has oversold this credit to his political supporters to distinguish himself from former President Obama and others. But if North Korea resumes testing, it will damage his political credit and may have a significant negative impact on his election campaign in the coming year. In this context, his primary concern may be preventing North Korea from resuming tests or making further provocations. The US government seems to have put forth a "freeze for freeze" proposal in the Stockholm talks. It is yet to be seen whether the talks will resume soon, but one of the critical remaining issues is to align the conditions of the "freeze for freeze."  This process is likely to invite strong resistance from the US military and intelligence communities. The US government has already confirmed the existence of nuclear development facilities such as Kangson and others in addition to Yongbyon. If there is no agreement on the road map for dismantling all of these facilities and the end state of denuclearization, security and intelligence agencies in the US may protest internally over concerns that a partial nuclear deal will only give North Korea more time to develop its nuclear and missile capabilities, including reentry technology for ICBMs as well as submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) capabilities. North Korea has also continued to operate its uranium enrichment program. More importantly, even if North Korea accepts the freeze of the Yongbyon facilities, it will take some time, probably at least a couple of years, to verify and destroy all of the nuclear facilities there. Of course, this estimate assumes that international inspectors would be granted full access to all of those facilities. From North Korea's point of view, a partial freeze can be a great source of enhancing its leverage in the ensuing negotiations while buying more time to improve its nuclear and missile capabilities. In fact, coordinating matching conditions for lifting sanctions will be a long process. Considering all of these problems, it is unlikely that the military and intelligence communities in the US would support a partial freeze in return for lifting some sanctions or substantial rewards for North Korea.   Conclusion It is always tricky to predict the future. There are lots of hidden factors and issues that need to be taken into account in predicting the prospects for the ongoing US-North Korea nuclear talks. We do not know how North Korea or China will (re)act in the coming months. However, from the perspective of US domestic politics, no deal appears to be the most likely outcome by the end of this year. At the very least, it is unlikely that any sustainable agreements can be reached between the US and North Korea. Of course, this is only one of many possible scenarios, but we should be better prepared for a no deal scenario. We may also need to be better prepared for North Korea’s resumption of nuclear and ICBM and SLBM tests in the coming year.     ■ Myung-Koo Kang is Associate Professor of Department of Political Science, Baruch College at City University of New York. He teaches political economy and Asian affairs. Before starting to teach at Baruch from 2012, he taught at Claremont McKenna College (2008-12) and held a post-doctoral fellowship at the Asia Pacific Center at Stanford University (2006-08), after receiving M.A and Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Berkeley. He was a visitor scholar to the Institute for Advanced Study (Princeton, New Jersey, 2010) and a visiting scholar to the Policy Research Institute of the Ministry of Finance of Japan (2003-04).   ■ Typeset by Jinkyung Baek, Research Associate/Project Manager             For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 209) I [email protected]

Myung-Koo Kang 2020-06-08Views : 40568
Commentary Issue Briefing
[Global NK Commentary] The New Policies of Abe’s Cabinet Towards the Korean Peninsula: Background and South Korea’s Position

.a_wrap {font-size:14px; font-family:Nanum Gothic, Sans-serif, Arial; line-height:20px;} ■ You can visit our Global North Korea site to view the original text or download the pdf.   Editor's Note South Korea-Japan relations continue to deteriorate due to a series of events including Japan’s export restrictions on three Korean semiconductor materials, South Korean Supreme Court ruling on forced labor victims, and bilateral trade disputes. Professor Park Jung-jin of Tsuda University contends that “while the economic impact of Korea’s removal from Japan’s trade whitelist is still undetermined, it is clear that it will cause changes to the security environment.” He argues that South Korea needs to heed to Japan’s new policy on the Korean Peninsula under the Abe administration, which advocates for a hard-line stance toward South Korea while pursuing dialogues with North Korea. Furthermore, he asserts that “progress in DPRK-Japan diplomatic relations is no longer contingent upon that of inter-Korean relations,” and that South Korea needs to devise a strategy that accounts for a new Korea-Japan relationship and inter-Korean peace regime.      A South Korea-Japan "Trade War"? The decline of relations between South Korea and Japan has been looming for a long while. While it is still too early to predict the future, there is a need for an interim assessment. First, let us examine South Korea’s response. On July 1, 2019, the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) issued the “Regulatory Action on the Export of Three Semiconductor Materials to South Korea.” The South Korean government understood this as a form of retaliation targeting its future industries in response to the South Korean High Court ruling in favor of the victims of forced labor during Japan’s colonial rule. The “trade war” triggered as a result of this regulatory action was interpreted as an effort by the Japanese government to escalate the conflict to the security level. Considering this interpretation, the South Korean government’s decision to terminate the General Security of Military Information Agreement(GSOMIA) seems to make sense as a reciprocal action. But did it? It is a clear fact that Japan’s strengthened export restrictions were implemented in retaliation over the historical issues. However, the interpretation of historical issues expanding to encompass trade and security issues is shaky. METI, who was the instigator of this fight, stated in the first line of their announcement that they would exclude South Korea from their trade whitelist. This means that from the beginning, this issue was not one that stemmed from trade or economic issues. The act of delisting a country from the whitelist redefines it as one to which national security policy applies. Despite the long-standing controversy enshrouded by the historical agenda, the ROK-Japan relationship has always been held up by security cooperation. This reconsideration of the interests surrounding national security is a fundamental resetting of this relationship. The Japanese government announced the start of this directly. When the Japanese government removed South Korea from its whitelist, they suggested they did so on the basis of suspicion over the movement of strategic materials to North Korea. South Korea countered that this “suspicion” was nothing more than a trick to justify their “regulation” passed on trade with the ROK. They also understood the essence of this retaliatory move as being “economic aggression,” or aggression based on trade relations. However, ROK-Japan trade relations are reciprocal. Although Japan has a positive trade balance with South Korea, it is not strong to the extent that they can use it as a weapon to sanction the ROK. The Japanese government is aware of this, and so the likelihood that they will strengthen the embargo while trying to minimize damage to their own corporations and industry is low. The true goal of the Japanese government was not “regulation,” but rather the “suspicion” itself. Further, this can be interpreted as partially aimed towards fostering a “Korea risk.” As this is an action that can damage Korea only, it is not reciprocal. This play of each country taking threatening actions to deteriorate the credibility of the other on the basis of their own domestic laws is reminiscent of the Banco Delta Asia incident relating to North Korea that occurred in 2005. If we look at how North Korea responded to the doubts raised by the US about North Korea’s security on the basis of the Patriot Act at that time, the process itself gave rise to controversy and as it spread, the risk also increased disproportionately to the actual facts. This is because the nature of doubts about the security of a nation is such that they cannot be completely put to rest. In the BDA incident, the doubts manifested themselves as a total freeze on North Korea’s foreign currency holdings. Of course, there is no need to go overboard and say that the impact on South Korea will be anything near what North Korea suffered. “Korea risk” is not a term that the Japanese government invented. However, among Japan’s conservative opinion leaders, “Korea risk” is not a new expression. They have also raised the possibility that the economic damage dealt to the Korean government, if the situation is prolonged, could go so far as to spark a foreign reserve and financial crisis. The logic is to draw the attention of global investors not to the authenticity of the doubts, but rather to the place from which the risk emerges.   The Resetting of ROK-Japan Relations While the economic impact of Korea’s removal from Japan’s trade whitelist is still undetermined, it is clear that it will cause changes to the security environment. The unprecedented encroachment of the Chinese and Russian militaries on South Korean territory is not unrelated. However, such changes in the security environment are not matters that Abe’s Cabinet can implement on their own. While from the outside the issue appears to be a trade war, this is because the role of the US as a deciding factor has not yet been established in these early stages. Numerous past instances of US intervention in or mediation of ROK-Japan relations have all stemmed from the need for traditional security cooperation between the ROK and Japan. From a traditional security standpoint, the US should have already intervened or mediated between the two before the initial announcement of Korea’s removal from Japan’s trade whitelist. While South Korean media was splashing their speculations on whether or not the US would become involved across newspaper headlines, it was already too late. On the other hand, Japanese media predicted that the US would not intervene from the outset. In reality, the US did nothing meaningful in response to this unprecedented standoff between the ROK and Japan. Abe’s Cabinet is certain that it has the agreement or at least support of the Trump administration. This is because they believe that their interests and counterstrategy in response to the new international order are perfectly aligned with those of the US. Japan has begun to use the expression “Second Cold War,” and believe that the likelihood is strong that we are already in it rather than merely approaching it. Since the Trump administration, US response to China’s rise and Belt-and-Road Initiative (BRI) has taken the form of a containment policy which has been further structuralized by its Indo-Pacific strategy. The South Korean government made its intentions not to participate clear when this strategy was still in the planning stages in November 2017. This is because it fears provoking China. On the other hand, Japan has been making diplomatic efforts to play a key role in the new line of defense that links India and Australia, positioning itself as the ‘cornerstone’ of the Indo-Pacific strategy. Accordingly, in line with its anticipated expansion of its military status, Japan’s diplomacy seems to indicate that it feels the “uniqueness” which arises from the traditional method of security cooperation between the US, ROK, and Japan is no longer necessary. The majority of Japanese citizens are throwing their support behind Abe’s unfamiliar approach to ROK-Japan relations. Japan’s social conservatism cannot fully account for this support. Abe’s Cabinet complains that “South Korea is an untrustworthy country,” raising suspicions about the movement of strategic materials to North Korea and doubts over its policy towards the North as the foundation for this assertion. Japanese administrations have borrowed the official terms of the South Korean government such as the Sunshine Policy, engagement policy, and peace and reconciliation policy. After the Six-Party Talks were initiated during the Roh Moo-hyun administration, Japan began to use the expression “yuhwa seisaku(宥和政策)”, which can be translated as “appeasement policy.” Japan continuously dismisses South Korea’s efforts to endorse its North Korea policy as a policy of engagement. Further, currently all of Japan’s media, without exception, refers to the South Korean policy towards North Korea as a “yuhwa seisaku(融和政策) .” With the preconditions for a misunderstanding of South Korean policy towards North Korea already in place, the evolution of “yuhwa seisaku(宥和政策)” to “yuhwa seisaku(融和政策)” feels natural. However, “yuhwa(融和)” is not a diplomatic term but rather one that is commonly used in daily life as its pronunciation is identical in Japanese to the word “appeasement(宥和)” However, the dictionary further defines “yuhwa(融和)” as having the meaning of “melting and integration.” Thus, Japanese society currently misunderstands South Korea’s policy towards North Korea as one of consolidation or in other words “reunification”. The flip side of Japanese society’s “natural misunderstanding” of South Korean policy towards the North as having the goal of “unification” is that it automatically places South Korea within the political frame of being “anti-Japan.” As a result, the understanding of South Korean-led North-South reconciliation as expanding “Korean Peninsular nationalism” rather than building peace on the Korean Peninsula through denuclearization is becoming more widespread. This understanding also includes the absurd logic that North Korea’s nuclear weapons would immediately become South Korea’s to promote the independence of a unified Korea in the event that reunification were to take place. This rapid change in Japanese public opinion on Korean unification also correlates with the surrounding revisionist trends in international politics. At certain times, these trends include the potential for sudden crises or changes in the status quo to occur on the Korean Peninsula. The likelihood for such event to occur is also closely tied to “China’s rise” which supports Abe’s rationale for demanding constitutional reform.   DPRK-Japan Relations and the South Korean Dilemma The misunderstanding of South Korea’s policy towards North Korea that is now prevalent in Japanese society is a result of Abe’s Cabinet’s “international misperception.” It also runs parallel to their own approach to North Korea. When the Panmunjom Declaration was made at the Inter-Korean Summit in March of 2018, the Abe administration decided to appeal for a unified response from the Trump administration rather than join a South Korea-led denuclearization process. Meanwhile, the Abe administration simultaneously arranged back-to-back summits with President Putin and General Secretary Xi Jinping. At the time, Japan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs referred to this approach to North Korea as “big power diplomacy.” This announcement was made right before the third Inter-Korean summit because of the Liberal Democratic Party leadership elections that were to be held immediately after. This full-blown change in policy towards North Korea was visibly linked to Abe’s plan for long-term one-man rule. One noteworthy reappointment in the cabinet reshuffle which followed the Liberal Democratic Party elections was that of Suga Yoshihide. Suga was declared “minister in charge of North Korean abductions.” Giving a Chief Cabinet Secretary a special designation like this is an unprecedented move. This is a vague indication that the Prime Minister’s Office (Kantei) intends to go over the Cabinet and take charge of North Korea policy directly. This move by the Kantei to lead North Korea policy was anticipated previously. On July 1, 2018, following the US-DPRK Summit, the Asia Pacific Northeast Division was reorganized and expanded into two divisions, the first and the second. The second division was established for the purpose of taking charge of North Korea. This move was not a response by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs itself, but rather a top-down order from the Kantei. At the center of this was Imai Takaya, Executive Secretary to the Prime Minister. He was surrounded by former Prime Minister Koizumi’s Executive Secretary, Ijima Isao and Shigeru Kitamura, who led the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications and participated directly in talks between the DPRK and Japan. Further, in August of 2019, Kitamura was promoted to the head of the National Security Commission (NSC). His predecessor, Shotaro Yachi, was responsible for the previous ROK-Japan comfort women agreement. In contrast, Kitamura, who is an expert on North Korea, does not have any close ties to the ROK. We can say that this appointment is symbolic of the direction of Abe’s Cabinet’s security policy and policy towards the Korean Peninsula. Toshimitsu Motegi, who took over immediately after in September as head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has thus far taken a tough stance on South Korea, and has declared his intention to hold future talks with North Korea, including summits, numerous times. In tandem with these changes, Japanese economic organizations and politicians have recently been visiting North Korea in rapid succession. The resetting of ROK-Japan relations is unfolding simultaneously with a form of outreach in search of a DPRK-Japan relationship. This outreach is not being done via South Korea, and rather means that Japan intends to face the threat of North Korea directly. These moves by Abe’s Cabinet targeting the whole of the Korean Peninsula cannot but reflect Japan’s new approach and changes to the general theory of security policy. Whether or not it succeeds, South Korea’s government must pay attention to these changes. Throughout its pursuit of denuclearization talks with North Korea, South Korea was noted for playing down the Japan factor, leading the Korean media to reiterate the phrase, “Japan passing,” It seems this judgement was made on the basis of past experiences. The assumption has always been that if inter-Korean relations improve, then DPRK-Japan relations will automatically accompany this change. However, DPRK-Japan relations must improve as a necessary part of the North Korean denuclearization process, and may even be a driving factor. Further, after the Pyongyang Declaration in 2002, DPRK-Japan relations unfolded independently of inter-Korean relations. Symbolic of this was the bilateral agenda of the abduction issue. North Korea and Japan took the opportunity presented by the abduction issue to hold a variety of talks on topics well beyond the scope of the abductions. As seen through these dialogues, progress in DPRK-Japan diplomatic relations is no longer contingent upon that of inter-Korean relations. Abe’s Cabinet will continue to actively approach North Korea, and if the current trend continues, this will be accompanied by conflicts in the ROK-Japan relationship. Of course, the sudden nullification of security cooperation between the ROK and Japan or the abrupt normalization of DPRK-Japan relations will not occur. This is because the US would not tolerate it. As always, it is difficult to predict what North Korea will do. However, the possibility has opened up that DPRK-Japan relations will rapidly grow closer through summits or otherwise. While South Korea will have to express support if such a change occurs, the damage to its role as a leader in North Korea’s denuclearization will be significant. This is a dilemma. If a rift occurs between South and North Korea under such circumstances, the dilemma will grow more severe. Will South Korea be able to respond adequately? President Moon Jae-in has proposed building a peace economy between the two Koreas as a solution to Japan’s “economic aggression,” and referenced his vision for Korean unification in his Liberation Day speech on August 15. Japan did not react in the slightest to this, while North Korea responded by launching a series of missiles. If necessary, we must talk about “anti-Japan” and “reunification.” But This discussion must be saturated with a strategy for new ROK-Japan relations and a North-South Korean peace regime.   ■ Park Jung-jin is a professor of international relations at Tsuda University. He received his Ph.D. from Tokyo University in international relations and regional studies, and previously worked as a research professor at the Seoul National University Institute for Japan Studies. His main research interests include East Asian international politics, ROK-Japan relations, and DPRK-Japan relations. He is the author of the book The Birth of the Cold War between Japan and North Korea (日朝冷戦構造の誕生 1945-65), the compilation What was the Repatriation Movement of Koreans in Japan (帰国運動とは何だったのか), and the co-author of The Dismantling of Japan’s Empire in East Asia, The Korean Peninsula and East Asia (日本の安全保障6 朝鮮半島と東アジア), and The History of ROK-Japan Relations, 1965-2015.   ■ Typeset by Jinkyung Baek, Research Associate/Project Manager             For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 209) I [email protected]

Park Jung-jin 2020-06-08Views : 10976
Commentary Issue Briefing
[Global NK Commentary] No Way Out?: US-North Korea Denuclearization Negotiations

.a_wrap {font-size:14px; font-family:Nanum Gothic, Sans-serif, Arial; line-height:20px;} ■ You can visit our Global North Korea site to view the original text or download the pdf.   Editor's Note After the Panmunjom meeting between President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un, there has been a downturn in the North Korea-US talks on denuclearization. North Korea resumed military provocations, denouncing the ROK-US joint military drill. Instead of progress in North Korea-US peace talks, there have been continued refusals to engage, and an atmosphere of blame has arisen between the two. Professor Won Gon Park of Handong Global University’s School of International Studies argues, "If the US does not change its policy by the end of this year, North Korea will take a new way." As the negotiations have several variables, there is also a potential for President Trump to use South Korean security matters as corresponding denuclearization measures. Thus, the author adds, "the South Korean government should be aware of this and exercise caution so as not to place the country in a fragile security situation."     Since the surprise meeting between President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un in Panmunjom on June 30, US-DPRK talks have halted. Immediately after the meeting, President Trump proudly stated that working-level talks between the US and DPRK would take place "within two to three weeks." However, North Korea has chosen not to engage in further talks, and instead has resumed military provocations by launching ballistic missiles and rockets. North Korea denounced the ROK-US joint military drill in August and used it as an excuse to continue testing new weapons. President Trump, meanwhile, continues to insist that those tests by the North are "not a violation of promises" and showed off a letter from Chairman Kim that included a "small apology" for the testing and a promise to re-open talks after the ROK-US joint military exercise is finished. However, as of early September, North Korea has refused to hold any kind of talks with the US. Using state media, North Korea keeps blaming the US for this refusal. On August 31, North Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui railed against US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo’s remark that Pyongyang was guilty of "rogue behavior" as "just improper language, which the US administration will surely regret." She also warned that "hopes for talks with Washington are fading and the US should not put (North Korea’s) patience to the test any longer." A week before Choe made this statement, DPRK Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho released a similar statement calling Secretary Pompeo a "diehard toxin" who only complicates denuclearization talks and insisting that the North is "ready for both dialogue and a standoff." It is also known that Ri will not attend the United Nations General Assembly in New York this September. If he were to attend, it could lead to a meeting with Pompeo. However, North Korea has deliberately refused any kind of meeting with the US so far. North Korea’s intentions for denuclearization talks are becoming clear— they do not want to have the promised working-level talks unless the US changes its "grand bargain" to a "total solution" and accepts North Korea’s synchronized and phased approach. It is a well-known fact that North Korea would prefer a summit over working-level talks. After the failed Hanoi summit, several American participants expressed frustration over the difficulties in proceeding in negotiations with their North Korean counterparts at the working level because, simply, they kept saying "they do not have any authority to negotiate about denuclearization issues. Only their supreme leader can decide." As the US has maintained a consistent policy since Hanoi, North Korea knows that it cannot get what it wants in working-level talks. North Korea has actually denied high-level dialogue as well. The aforementioned Ri and Choe are two possible counterparts for Pompeo, yet they are clearly showing that they have no intention of talking with him. This means that the only remaining option for the North vis-à-vis dialogue with the US is another summit. Because President Trump is an unconventional leader whose style is without precedent in the US, it seems that the North is betting on him alone. North Korea has not retreated from the position that it took in Hanoi. North Korea wants to have corresponding measures to accompany the dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities. There is just one difference that can be noticed after Hanoi in terms of compensation, which is an emphasis on security guarantees. Following Chairman Kim’s statement in his state address on April 12 that "we will no longer obsess over lifting sanctions imposed by the hostile forces," in his meetings with Russian and Chinese counterparts, he has continued to call for security guarantees in return for denuclearization. North Korea’s recent criticisms of the ROK-US joint exercises and deployment of strategic assets on and around the Korean Peninsula can be understood in light of its demands for security guarantees. So far, President Trump has delivered at least two failed messages to the world about the US dialogue with North Korea. He announced that the North would come to the working-level negotiation table after the Panmunjom meeting in June, and stated the same once more after the ROK-US joint military drill finished in August. President Trump also echoed Chairman Kim’s argument about the joint drill, saying that it’s "a total waste of money." The US Congress and diplomatic and security communities, as well as US media, have criticized Trump’s attitude and policy toward North Korea. The North may have expectations that if it continues to refuse talks with the US and conducts limited provocations, President Trump will change his policy and come up with a more flexible approach to denuclearization because of domestic pressures, which could have a negative impact on his re-election.  However, there are no signs that the US will change its policy on the denuclearization of North Korea. National Security Advisor John Bolton said on August 14, "what President Trump called the big deal...is to make that strategic decision to give up nuclear weapons, and then implement it and then all kinds of things are possible after that." The US still wants North Korea to make a strategic decision to give up nuclear weapons by agreeing to the US definition of denuclearization; freezing all nuclear and missile development; and agreeing to a roadmap including reporting, inspections, and dismantlement. The US also demands that the North dismantle not only the Yongbyon nuclear site, but also other facilities that produce highly enriched uranium. Sanction lifts will follow after North Korea has implemented meaningful denuclearization measures. Chairman Kim said on April 12, "if the United States proposed holding a third round of summit talks after finding out with a proper attitude a methodology that can be shared with us, we would be willing to try one more time." He also stated that "we will be patient and wait till the end of this year to see whether the United States makes a courageous decision or not." These statements imply that he "may be compelled to find a new way of defending the sovereignty of the country and the supreme interests of the state and for achieving peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula." The problem is that if the US does not change its policy by the end of this year, North Korea will take "a new way," yet there is no real alternative for the North. The North Korean economy has been deteriorating since 2016. The North had -3.5% economic growth in 2017, and -4.1% in 2018, according to the Bank of Korea. The current economic sanctions promise to deplete North Korea's foreign currency reserves in the not-so-distant future. Another challenge that the Pyongyang leadership faces is rising expectations. Because North Koreans have witnessed a series of summits, it is not unlikely that they may have higher expectations of getting out from under the economic sanctions and enjoying a better quality of life. The higher the expectations, the greater the frustration when such hopes are not fulfilled. If North Korea chooses to resume its nuclear and ICBM tests as its "new way," the Trump administration will once again return to the strategy of maximum pressure, including military options. China and Russia will not be able to actively protect and support North Korea if this occurs as both have their own issues with the US. On top of that, although President Trump will face serious criticisms if the North resumes its tests, it has been shown already in numerous cases that Trump does not mind blaming others and rapidly changing his policies. As a result, time is not on North Korea’s side. If the US continues to impose sanctions, North Korea’s new way could lead to meaningful denuclearization steps. Yet one important variable that we should be cautious about in this process is Trump’s tendency towards unilateral decision-making when it comes to security matters. As mentioned previously, North Korea wants the US to provide security guarantees in the form of the permanent suspension of ROK-US joint military exercises and the end to the deployment of strategic assets in South Korea. Trump has expressed very negative views on this issue several times. It is expected that the ROK and the US will have very tough negotiations on burden sharing in the coming months. The termination of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) by the South Korean government also has a negative impact on the ROK-US alliance. Under the circumstances, the possibility that Trump will use important security matters for South Korea as corresponding measures to denuclearize North Korea should not be excluded. The South Korean government should be aware of this and exercise caution so as not to place the country in a fragile security situation.      ■ Won Gon Park is a professor at the School of International Studies at Handong Global University. He is also a member of the Policy Advisory Board of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and National Unification for the Republic of Korea.   ■ Typeset by Jinkyung Baek, Research Associate/Project Manager             For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 209) I [email protected]

Won Gon Park 2020-06-08Views : 10865
Commentary Issue Briefing
[Global NK Commentary] The Impact of the Abrogation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty on the Strategic Situation in Northeast Asia

.a_wrap {font-size:14px; font-family:Nanum Gothic, Sans-serif, Arial; line-height:20px;} ■ You can visit our Global North Korea site to view the original text or download the pdf.   Editor's Note On August 2, the United States formally withdrew from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty), citing Russian violations of the agreement. Soo-hyung Lee, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy, says that “While the justification for the withdrawal was Russian actions, the true strategic intention of the US was to prevent China from expanding its influence in East Asia, and should be seen in the context of US-China strategic competition.” He also argues that the new INF dispute, which will play out in Northeast Asia, will lead to an arms race between the US and China, and will also have a negative impact on the denuclearization process and the US-North Korea relations. He emphasizes that “the expansion of the US-China conflict resulting from the INF dispute should not be allowed to interfere with the denuclearization process of the Korean Peninsula.”      The Korean Peninsula has embarked on a long journey towards a new era of peace. However, as Murphy’s law dictates, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. On August 2, 2019, the United States announced that it would formally withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (hereafter “INF Treaty”) that it signed together with Russia in 1987, citing Russian transgressions of the terms of the treaty. The announcement came exactly six months after US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo’s February 2, 2019 statement declaring the intention of the United States to withdraw from the treaty. Following the US withdrawal, the Russian government also withdrew from the treaty, saying “the INF Treaty, signed between the United States and the Soviet Union on December 8, 1987, has expired on this day due to the actions of the United States.”   Reasons the United States Withdrew from the INF Treaty There is no doubt that the withdrawal from the thirty-two-year old treaty will be recorded as a historic inflection point with enormous influence on the future of international security and international politics. In particular, unlike the past when the intermediate-range ballistic missile issue caused a stir in Europe, this time it seems as though it will also have a negative impact on peace in Northeast Asia and on the Korean Peninsula. The most worrisome concern is that the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty will not only accelerate strategic competition between the United States and China, but also intensify existing regional security dilemmas. While the justification for the withdrawal was Russian actions, the true strategic intention of the US was to prevent China from expanding its influence in East Asia, and should be seen in the context of US-China strategic competition. The United States has not bothered concealing this intention. In August of 2011, National Security Advisor John Bolton, then Senior Researcher at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), wrote in the Wall Street Journal that in order to prevent China’s strategic reinforcement of its intermediate range missiles, the INF Treaty must either be abrogated or China must be forced to become a member. Furthermore, in April of 2017, US Ambassador to the ROK Harry Harris, then-Commander of the United States Pacific Command, stated in a Congressional testimony that more than 90 percent of China’s ballistic and cruise missiles would have been in violation of the INF Treaty, had China been a signatory. In line with such American concerns, since 2010, China has strengthened its intermediate-range missile capability as part of its Anti-Access Area-Denial (A2AD) strategy to block US military access to the South China Sea. For example, China has a variety of ground-launched intermediate-range missiles, such as the DF-11 (600km), the DF-15 (800km), the DF-16 (1,500km), the DF-21 (1,700km), the DF-25 (4,000km), and cruise missiles like the CJ-10 (2,500km). China deployed its first anti-ship ballistic missile, the DF-21D, in 2013 to counter American aircraft carriers. The missile, dubbed “the carrier-killer,” has a range of 1,800 to 3,000 kilometers, and due to the difficulty in intercepting it, is the most threatening weapon China has against the United States.   The US wants to Deploy INF to its Asian Allies Because of the INF Treaty, the United States has been unable to test or deploy ground-launched missiles that can adequately counter China’s increase of its intermediate-range missile capability. The US withdrawal from the INF treaty will thus be played as a card to place strategic pressure on China to sign a new INF treaty. If that is not feasible, the United States will make use of its Asian allies to deploy intermediate-range ballistic and cruise missiles targeting China. A recent press release quoted former White House WMD policy coordinator Gary Samore, saying that “one of the reasons for the withdrawal of the United States from the INF Treaty was China’s absence as a signatory.” Furthermore, US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper has said that he wants to deploy new precision-guided intermediate-range missiles in allied Asian countries. He made clear that “the deployment sites should be discussed with the allied countries in question, but the missiles will be INF-range missiles.” Esper’s statement shows that the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty is not independent of China, but rather can also be interpreted as a way to indirectly examine the reaction of US allies. However, when the United States aims its missiles at China, the strategic implications of that missile deployment for Guam and other US allies in the region will be fundamentally different compared to the strategic implications of intermediate-range missile deployment in Europe in the 1980s. This is a serious issue.   The Difference between the European and the Northeast Asian INF Dispute It is well-known that the intermediate-range missile dispute in Cold War-era European security, which both amplified the danger of nuclear war but also brought about its end, occurred in the context of a strategic nuclear weapons equilibrium where both the United States and the Soviet Union maintained the ability to launch an attack on each other’s mainland. Thus, the United States and the Soviet Union could manage the risks of intermediate-range nuclear missiles, resulting in the December 1987 INF Treaty that brought about the end of the Cold War. However, with regard to the development of the intermediate-range nuclear missile dispute in East Asia after the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the capability of China to strike the US mainland is disproportionate to the US capability to strike China. The United States can deploy ground-launched intermediate-range nuclear missiles in allied countries, targeting the Chinese mainland. The United States and China will therefore understand and respond to the regional-level INF dispute in East Asia in different ways. Due to this difference, the effect of the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty — and the effect of the new intermediate-range missiles that the United States subsequently will test and deploy — on the situation in East Asia, cannot be compared with the previous situation in Europe. The strategic implications are multidimensional and multilayered.   China's Strategic Nuclear Buildup and the Possibility of a Sino-Russian Alliance China, which in absolute terms is inferior to the United States in terms of strategic nuclear weapons, will take two strategic responses to American intermediate-range missile deployment. First, China will increase its capability to strike the US mainland by increasing its arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons. Through this measure, China can attempt to even out the strategic imbalance between itself and the United States. Second, China may form a de facto security alliance with Russia, which likely has the same strategic nuclear capabilities as the United States. In this way, China can use strategic Russian assets to offset the strategic imbalance. Whichever response China chooses, the new regional INF dispute in East Asia will initiate an arms race and will be the first step in forcing a new type of arms race on major countries in the region.   The Eruption of a Periodic Alliance Dilemma due to Strategic Dissonance The second strategic implication of the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty is that it will create an alliance dilemma. In other words, there will be periodic security conflicts stemming from the “strategic dissonance” which arises due to an inability to reach a compromise between the United States and its Asian allies (Korea, Japan, and Australia) over the new deployment of INF. This is because intermediate-range missiles deployed in these countries have no other target than the Chinese mainland. US Secretary of Defense Esper’s remarks that “the deployment sites should be discussed with the allied countries in question” raised particular concerns about the deployment of missiles in Darwin, on the North Coast of US ally Australia, 5,000km away from Shanghai, China. Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs Marise Payne responded in a very general, yet careful way, stating that “We see China as an important partner of Australia…we will work with the United States, our strongest ally, and our core partner, China, to pursue stability, security and prosperity.” In other words, the United States will encounter some difficulties in coordinating this new strategic initiative with its allies to deploy intermediate-range missiles in their respective territories because it is aimed at mainland China. For America’s Asian allies, the deployment of intermediate-range missiles aimed at mainland China will not enhance cooperation or strengthen ties between them and the United States. However, it does have the potential to cause serious harm to their national security interests.   Negative Aftermath in US-DPRK Denuclearization Process The US withdrawal from the INF treaty is likely to negatively impact the denuclearization process on the Korean Peninsula. After the second US-DPRK summit in Hanoi in 2019, the denuclearization process has been on hold pending further negotiations, which will likely proceed after the conclusion of US-ROK military exercises. However, even if Chairman Kim and President Trump are able to establish a modicum of trust and hold a third summit which results in clear progress towards a denuclearization agreement, the introduction of INF in the region will alter the calculus of North Korean denuclearization and make it more difficult to persuade Kim Jong Un to give up his short and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Given the new regional INF dispute, it is likely that North Korea will either exempt short- and intermediate range missiles such as Scuds, Nodong, and Musudan (Hwasong-10) from the denuclearization process altogether or will simply take a very passive stance with regards to their disposal. In other words, even if North Korea agrees to cooperate with the United States and dispose of its Hwasong-15 and other intercontinental missiles as part of the denuclearization process, it is still be likely that the regime will oppose the removal of short- and intermediate range missiles that could threaten US allies in the region. This in turn can highlight the alliance dilemma between the United States and its allies in the denuclearization process, because even though North Korea’s short- and intermediate range missiles do not constitute a direct threat towards the United States, they do pose an existential threat to South Korea, Japan, and other US allies in the region. On the other hand, if the new regional INF dispute in Northeast Asia is mishandled, the possibility that the United States will use it to exert military pressure against North Korea to induce its denuclearization cannot be ruled out. If the future US-DPRK denuclearization process ends up in a win-win scenario for both the United States and North Korea, the INF dispute may not become an issue. However, if the denuclearization process faces another deadlock, or if the United States and North Korea have different opinions about the speed at which the process should be undertaken, the INF dispute may easily transform into a coercion strategy against North Korea and be used as a military sanction on top of economic sanctions. We must also consider the possibility that the US-DPRK denuclearization process becomes linked to the US presidential election process, in which case the Trump administration may use the INF issue to obtain visible denuclearization outcomes from North Korea. In addition, if North Korea conducts a medium-to-long-range missile test as a ploy to gain the upper hand in the denuclearization process, the United States could deploy INFs to its allies as a countermeasure. Of course, such a situation would be a departure from the ongoing dialogue-based denuclearization process of the Korean Peninsula and would signal a return to the traditional confrontational dynamic which has characterized US-DPRK relations thus far. The last few years of US and Russian security policies have ultimately led to the abolition of the INF Treaty, which raises concerns that the fate of the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) will also be compromised. The INF dispute in Northeast Asia comes at a time when US-China strategic competition is intensifying across East Asia, and it is expected to exacerbate the situation. Even so, the expansion of the US-China conflict resulting from the INF dispute should not be allowed to interfere with the Korean denuclearization process.     ■ Soo-hyung Lee is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS). He also serves as an adjunct professor at the University of North Korean Studies. Before joining INSS, he served as an administrator to the President for Security Strategy, Cheong Wa Dae (Office of the President) from 2005 to 2007. His main research interests include international politics and security, NATO and European security, ROK-US security relations, Inter-Korean security relations, alliance politics in Northeast Asia, and East Asian security issues.   ■ Typeset by Jinkyung Baek, Research Associate/Project Manager             For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 209) I [email protected]

Soohyung Lee 2020-06-08Views : 11005
Commentary Issue Briefing
[Global NK Commentary] North Korea’s Biological and Chemical Weapons and the Path to Denuclearization

.a_wrap {font-size:14px; font-family:Nanum Gothic, Sans-serif, Arial; line-height:20px;} ■ You can visit our Global North Korea site to view the original text or download the pdf.   Editor's Note Despite the meeting between Trump and Kim Jong Un which created great expectations for the progress of US-DPRK negotiations, North Korea has recently fired several short-range ballistic missiles and new long-range artillery, signaling a possible buildup of nuclear power. The military threat that has created a deadlock in the peace process on the Korean Peninsula consists not only of nuclear weapons, but also biological and chemical weapons. Ms. Jinkyung Baek, a research associate and a project manager at the East Asia Institute (EAI), and Dr. Chaesung Chun, a professor at Seoul National University and the Chair of EAI’s Center for National Security Studies, argue that biological and chemical weapons “cost less to produce than nukes and are second only to nuclear weapons in terms of the ability to pose an immediate military threat,” and therefore cannot be ignored. If biological and chemical weapons are not included in the North's denuclearization process, a major military threat will still remain even after the regime’s nuclear weapons have been dismantled. Thus, Ms. Baek and Dr. Chun emphasize that South Korea “must work to ensure that the final result is a comprehensive agreement” to build genuine peace on the Korean Peninsula.      Biological and chemical weapons are just as efficient and effective as nuclear weapons in wreaking mass destruction, and as they are much cheaper to produce, are sometimes referred to as “the poor man’s nuclear weapons.” North Korea’s possession of such weapons is one aspect in which it has asymmetric power over South Korea, and if attached to long-range artillery or short-range ballistic missiles, these weapons have the ability to inflict serious fatalities. As the peace process on the Korean Peninsula continues to move forward, all weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons, missiles, and of course biological and chemical weapons must be removed as part of verifiable disarmament. There is a great deal of controversy over whether biological and chemical weapons are being included within the negotiations between the US and North Korea, as well as what place such weapons occupy in the concept of “denuclearization” or in denuclearization’s final goal. While it is justifiable to include all weapons of mass destruction in dismantlement, the issue must be approached carefully for the sake of success in the negotiations. Following the Singapore Summit of June 12, 2018, the US clarified its intent to include biological and chemical weapons in the process of North Korea’s nuclear disarmament. National Security Advisor John Bolton established on July 1, 2018 that North Korean denuclearization should include nuclear weapons as well as biological and chemical weapons and ballistic missiles, a statement which immediately made waves. On July 25, 2018, at a hearing held by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in response to a question from Senator Edward Markey that the US and North Korea had discussed biological and chemical weapons and were on the same page (“We’ve talked about CBW. Their CBW program is being part of that denuclearization and as I said they have indicated that they fully understand the scope of what denuclearization entails”). Following the ruptured negotiations at the Hanoi Summit in late February of 2019, John Bolton reiterated in a number of interviews that the US demands to North Korea for denuclearization included biological and chemical weapons as well as nuclear weapons and missiles. On March 5, 2019, Senator Cory Gardener, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Policy stated in a closed briefing after receiving a report on the results of the Hanoi Summit from United States Special Representative on North Korea Stephan Biegun that the talks covered biological and chemical weapons as well as nuclear weapons (“So not only nuclear but we're talking weapons of mass destruction, chemical weapons as well. And there was discussion of human rights as well at the summit…”). Reviewing the past 18 months of negotiations between the US and North Korea, it is clear that there is a need for greater attention on whether biological and chemical weapons are included in the final goal of denuclearization, and if they are, deeper consideration of at what step of the process they should be dealt with. The international community has continued to speculate as to the current state of North Korea’s chemical and biological weapons, and the country is thought to be the world’s third-largest possessor of such weapons after the US and Russia. North Korea began producing chemical weapons in the 1980s, and is now in possession of between 2,500 and 5,000 tons. It is estimated that the regime holds a number of chemical warfare agents including adamsite (DM), chloroacetophenone (CN), chlorobenzalmalononitrile (CS), chlorine (CL), cyanogen chloride (CK), hydrogen cyanide (AC), sulfur mustard (H, HD, or HL), phosgene (CG and CX), sarin (GB), soman (GD), tabun (GA), and V-series (VM and VX) agents. It is also thought to be in possession of the majority of deadly biological agents including anthrax (anthracnose), clostridium botulinum (botulinum food poisoning), cholera bacteria (cholera), bunyaviridae (epidemic hemorrhagic fever), yersinia pestis (bubonic plague), smallpox virus (smallpox), salmonella typhimurium (typhoid), shigella (dysentery), brucella (brucellosis), staphylococcus (staphylococcal infection), rickettsia prowazekii (epidemic typhus), and alimentary toxic aleukia (yellow rain). Unlike the development of nuclear weapons and missiles and the location of launch vehicles, it is difficult to assess the precise location of chemical and biological weapons production facilities or even whether or not they are being produced. This is due to the production of toxic biological and chemical weapons in facilities disguised as chemical factories and fertilizer factories. Chemical and biological weapons can be produced at a relatively low cost inside fertilizer factories, pesticide factories, pharmaceutical plants, chemical plants, and so on. It is difficult to confirm whether or not such weapons are being produced, and the evidence of production can be easily destroyed. This is why it is impossible to get a solid grasp of the current status of chemical weapons in the country. In addition, as certain chemical and biological weapons like VX are made up of multiple components and are not deadly unless two or three components are combined, producers, who are not the developers of chemical formulas, may not be able to know whether or not they are producing the materials to create biological or chemical weapons. North Korea’s controversial and inhumane chemical weapons tests cannot be left out of this discussion. North Korean defectors have provided testimony with regard to the regime’s testing of chemical and biological weapons on North Korean citizens. Such tests have been targeted at political prisoners and disabled persons, and known tests include those conducted at Camp 22, Kim Il Sung University Medical College, Kim Man Yu Hospital, Bacteria Research Laboratories 201 and 501, and others. Experts have compiled these testimonies and published a report on such tests, using them as examples of North Korean human rights violations.  There are multiple examples of North Korea actually employing the use of chemical weapons to back the speculation regarding the regime’s program. The murder of Kim Jong Nam in the Malaysian airport in February of 2017 is the most well-known, with an examination of his corpse and personal effects revealing traces of the chemical nerve agent VX. His cause of death was ruled as rapid VX nerve poisoning. It was later revealed that four North Korean suspects left Malaysia shortly after Kim Jong Nam’s murder. As explained above, VX does not become deadly until two or three components are combined, making it exceedingly difficult to prevent this type of attack. North Korea has also exported chemical weapons, adding weight to the estimates of its stockpile. In February of last year, an internal report from the UN stated that North Korea has been supporting the Syrian production of chemical weapons and sending its own technicians to assist. In 2013 and 2017, Syrian forces deployed a massive amount of chemical weapons against targeted rebel forces, and it is considered highly likely that these chemical weapons were exported to Syria by North Korea. It is also possible that chemical weapons have been used against groups of defectors to render them powerless, or that chemical weapons may be used in tandem with other types of weapons. The reality of the situation described above is that unless North Korea voluntarily discloses and gives up its chemical and biological weapons, it will be challenging for the international community to precisely assess the situation through regulatory measures and impose sanctions accordingly, unlike with nuclear weapons. In fact, North Korea became a signatory to the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) three months ahead of South Korea in March of 1987. In the past, when President Trump expressed doubts over the development of North Korean biological weapons, the Head of Communications from the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs Institute for American Studies said in response that “as a signatory to the BWC, (North Korea) has consistently opposed the development, production, storage and retention of biological weapons.” However, despite the fact that the BWC includes a prohibition on the development, production, and stockpiling of biological weapons, the agreement does not contain an official mechanism through which to demonstrate compliance, and there is thus a limit on the possible methods through which Chairman Kim Jong Un’s compliance can be confirmed. BWC protocol consists of three main elements: mandatory declaration, periodic inspections of declared facilities, and surprise inspections conducted on short notice. Supposing that BWC verification protocols are carried out using the three mechanisms listed above, then the inspection of the facilities of open countries is not difficult. However, as declaration is voluntary, there are always doubts regarding North Korea’s compliance, and it is always challenging to inspect whether or not North Korea possesses offensive biological capabilities. Further, under the BWC inspection protocol, when activities have been exposed, North Korea has been able to use the explanation that its biological agents are dual-use. This is because the BWC allows for the manufacture of offensive biological agents to be disguised as the capability to produce biological agents for peaceful purposes by not restricting their manufacture in general. In the worst-case scenario, the protocol allows North Korea to withdraw from the agreement as it did from the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Chemical weapons are even more challenging than biological weapons, although ironically, the compliance measures to confirm whether or not a country possesses chemical weapons are more systematic than those which govern biological weapons. The international organization which governs chemical weapons is known as the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and offers numerous avenues for investigation, as it was created to play the role of assisting signatory countries to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) which already possessed chemical weapons in dismantling their stockpiles. The CWC, which South Korea became a signatory to in April of 1997, focuses on the complete dismantlement of all chemical weapons facilities within ten years of accession. However, North Korea is not a signatory to the agreement, and as a result it is difficult to verify whether the country possesses chemical weapons, and if so, to ensure the regime’s compliance in their destruction. The OPCW is not able to investigate all of the CWC non-signatory countries, and while theoretically a joint UN-OPCW task force could check North Korea’s compliance through inspections and sanctions, such a task force will encounter problems over the issue of sovereignty, making the chances of being able to check North Korea’s compliance in this manner rather slim. North Korea’s biological and chemical weapons have not received nearly the degree of sustained international attention that its nuclear program has. Regardless, such weapons cost less to produce than nukes and are second only to nuclear weapons in terms of the ability to pose an immediate military threat. As it is highly likely that North Korea still possesses the ability to produce biological and chemical weapons despite ongoing economic sanctions, the danger cannot be ignored. When combined with other weapons such as missiles, biological and chemical weapons have the potential to cause extreme levels of fatalities. This means that even if North Korea agrees to give up its nuclear weapons, the international community must still consider the possibility that the regime’s biological and chemical weapons can pose a threat. Although President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un’s meeting on June 30, 2019 has given rise to renewed optimism surrounding the US-DPRK negotiations, North Korea’s launches of short-range ballistic missiles and improved long-range artillery have darkened the aura surrounding the Korean Peninsula itself. Although North Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated these launches are a response to the US-ROK joint military exercises, they are also a clear indication of North Korea’s improving ability to target the South. Even if denuclearization negotiations are successful and North Korea dismantles its nuclear weapons, if they continue to possess biological and chemical weapons, the regime’s increasing ability to combine these weapons with traditional artillery means that they will continue to pose a military threat to South Korea. A recent report by the Congressional Research Service titled “North Korea: What 18 Months of Diplomacy Has and Has Not Achieved,” states that the inclusion of biological and chemical weapons in the discussions on denuclearization, and the pursuit of their elimination in any “big deal” must be considered. While South Korea wishes to avoid frontloading early denuclearization negotiations with demands, they must work to ensure that the final result is a comprehensive agreement to guarantee peaceful North-South relations on the Peninsula ahead.     Jinkyung Baek is a research associate and project manager at the East Asia Institute who works on North Korea and security as well as democracy in Asia. She received her Master’s degree in International Relations from the University of Warwick in the United Kingdom. Currently, she is in charge of a research project constructing and managing an archival website called “Global North Korea,” which compiles North Korean published documents in four major countries. She is also responsible for managing Asian Democracy research projects such as the “Asia Democracy Research Network.” Her main research interests include North Korea, international relations, and global security. ■ Chaesung Chun is the chair of the National Security Research Center at the East Asia Institute, and a professor of the department of political science and International relations at Seoul National University. Dr. Chun received his PhD in international relations at Northwestern University in the United States, and serves on the policy advisory committee to the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Unification. His main research interests include international political theory, the ROK-US alliance, and Korean Peninsular affairs. He is the co-author of The Korean War: Threat and Peace, and the author of a number of publications including Are Politics Moral and International Politics in East Asia: History and Theory.   ■ Typeset by Jinkyung Baek, Research Associate/Project Manager             For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 209) I [email protected]

Jinkyung Baek, Chaesung Chun 2020-06-08Views : 13157
Commentary Issue Briefing
[Global NK Commentary] Dear Prime Minister Abe, Help, Not Fight, President Moon to Help you on North Korea and the Olympics

.a_wrap {font-size:14px; font-family:Nanum Gothic, Sans-serif, Arial; line-height:20px;} ■ You can visit our Global North Korea site to view the original text or download the pdf.   Editor's Note The recent announcement that the Japanese government may impose export restrictions to South Korea has further soured bilateral relations, bringing them down to a record low. The news came as a surprise to South Korea, provided how Prime Minister Abe had reiterated the need for a “free and open economy” at the G20 Summit this past June. While Prime Minister Abe remains discontent about the latest developments in Japan-South Korean relations, he “needs to reconsider his trade war against South Korea.” According to Professor Seong-ho Sheen, it was President Moon who “sent his top envoy to Tokyo after the high profile Seoul-Pyongyang dialogue […] and the historic inter-Korean summit” and also “took a two-track approach […] to separate the history issue from other areas” unlike some of the past administrations. Professor Sheen suggests that the South Korean administration is still willing to work with Japan to improve bilateral relations, insofar as Prime Minister Abe reverses his decision.     Japan-ROK relations have reached their lowest point in years, if not decades, with the Japanese government’s announcement of possible export restriction of key materials used for Korea’s semiconductor and cell phone producers. The situation is so toxic that a new poll found that seventy four percent of Japanese does not trust South Korea. Meanwhile, the latest poll by Gallup Korea found that only twelve percent of South Koreans said they have a favorable view of Japan, the lowest figure since Japan-ROK relations polling began in 1991. The situation is getting worse as the Japanese government is reportedly planning to remove South Korea from its white country list for favorable export permission for over hundreds of items. Meanwhile, there is a widespread boycott on Japanese products and travel among the Korean public as a government official alluded to a possible withdrawal from the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) between Korea and Japan.  Previously Mr. Abe rejected the Korean government’s request for a bilateral meeting with President Moon during the Osaka G20 summit even though he met with nineteen other leaders. The Japanese government’s decision came as a surprise amidst deepening social and economic exchanges between the two countries. For the past year alone, over 7.5 million Koreans visited Japan, a very close second to 8 million Chinese tourists while 2.5 million record breaking Japanese tourists visited Korea. Young Japanese people are in love with K-pop, K beauty and Korean foods, creating a new Korean wave in Japanese society. What has happened then between Tokyo and Seoul? Obviously, Mr. Abe is not happy about the Moon government’s decision not to intervene in a Korean court ruling against Japanese companies over colonial era forced labor lawsuit brought by Korean citizens. The Japanese government strongly protested that the Korean government is not abiding by international law by ignoring the request for a third party mediation under the 1965 Korea-Japan normalization agreement which, they claim, resolved all the reparation issues once and for all. They suspect the Moon government is trying to overthrow the post-war settlement between Japan and South Korea. Last December, the Moon government dissolved a foundation established by the 2015 the comfort women settlement between President Park Geun-hye and Mr. Abe.    Yet, Mr. Abe needs to reconsider his trade war against South Korea. First of all, as many international media sources point out, Japan’s export restrictions contradict the principle of “a free and open economy.” Mr. Abe told leaders of the G20 nations in Osaka that Japan serves as “the foundation of global peace and prosperity.” Indeed, when asked about the rational for the sudden trade restrictions, the Japanese government contradicted itself, shifting back and forth between framing them as a history issue or a national security issue. Speaking of poor export controls system of South Korea, the Japanese officials had difficult time to provide concrete evidence. In fact, many outsiders worry that the Japanese measure could disrupt the global trading system which is already under serious strain by the protectionist trade war between US and China. Lately, a prominent group of America’s largest tech companies issued a joint statement stating, “non-transparent and unilateral changes in export control policies can cause supply chain disruptions, delays in shipments, and ultimately long-term harm” to the global economy. Furthermore, the Japanese trade restriction could cause serious damage not only to the South Korean economy but also to that of Japan as well. Since the 1965 normalization, Korea and Japan have built a very close and successful economic partnership to their mutual benefit. In particular, the trade balance has been largely in favor of Japan, as South Korea has never had a trade surplus with Japan over the past half century. In 2018 alone, Japan had over US$24 billion trade surplus with South Korea compared to Japan’s US$29.5 billion deficit with China. The cumulative trade surplus with Korea over those 54 years stands at US$604.6 billion. Experts point out that Tokyo will eventually shoot itself in the foot as Japanese producers worry about the risk of permanent loss in market share.   Some say the Japanese government is not happy about the way in which Seoul handles North Korea’s nuclear issues. They believe the Moon government is taking a mid-way approach between complete denuclearization and a nuclear freeze while trying to cement a peace treaty with North Korea with push for US-North Korea normalization. Security experts are worried that Mr. Trump will make a small deal with Kim Jong-un for a freeze of long range ballistic missile program while leaving Kim’s nuclear materials unaccounted for. It will leave Japan’s security interest in limbo as Pyongyang may retain a capability to attack Tokyo with medium range missiles tipped with nuclear warhead. Yet, that is exactly why Mr. Abe should work with, and not fight with, Moon who faces the same North Korean threat as Japan. Mr. Abe should not forget that it was President Moon who sent his top envoy to Tokyo immediately after the high profile Seoul-Pyongyang dialogue to give back-briefing in the aftermath of Pyongchang Winter Olympic last year. He did so again right after the historic inter-Korean summit at Panmunjom last April as well. Each time, Mr. Abe gladly met with them. Indeed, President Moon has made eleven phone calls and held four meetings with Abe in two years of his presidency, hoping for a mutual cooperation on various issues. The previous Park administration refused to meet Mr. Abe for three and half years due to the comfort women issue. From the beginning, Moon took a two-track approach of acknowledging difficult challenges of the history issues while emphasizing bilateral cooperation in other areas. It represented Moon’s desire to separate the history issue from other areas so that Korea-Japan could promote expanding cooperative partnership in the 21st century. Yet, the recent trade restriction takes exactly the opposite approach to intermingling history with all the other area of bilateral relations. With a victory in the Japanese mid-term election, Mr. Abe should focus on the next big national event, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. Even though Mr. Abe tends to advocate maximum pressure on Pyongyang for denuclearization, keeping a peace on the Korean Peninsula will be critical for Japan’s hosting of the world’s greatest sporting event. Another nuclear crisis from Pyongyang is the last thing Mr. Abe wants. Moon expressed support for Mr. Abe’s desire to engage with Pyongyang to resolve the abductee issue and pursue diplomatic normalization. Mr. Abe, please help, not fight, with President Moon, so he can help you on North Korea and the Olympics.     ■ Seong-ho Sheen is a professor at Graduate School of International Studies at Seoul National University. He is also a member of Policy Advisory Board of Ministry of Defense, Republic of Korea.   ■ Typeset by Jinkyung Baek, Research Associate/Project Manager             For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 209) I [email protected]

Seong-ho Sheen 2020-06-08Views : 14700
Commentary Issue Briefing
[Global NK Commentary] What Trump Should Know After the Panmunjom Summit

.a_wrap {font-size:14px; font-family:Nanum Gothic, Sans-serif, Arial; line-height:20px;} ■ You can visit our Global North Korea site to view the original text or download the pdf.   Editor's Note The Panmunjom summit this past June helped lay fresh ground for both North Korea and the US in terms of reinitiating the denuclearization negotiations between them. The official position of the US has always emphasized CVID (Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible Denuclearization) and FFVD (Final Verified Denuclearization) on the Korean Peninsula, which was the basis that they relied on for their negotiations with Kim in Hanoi. However, Jihwan Hwang, a professor at the University of Seoul, notes that North Korea believes in peace “preceding” denuclearization—a different approach than that of US. This is one of the reasons why Choi Sun Hee, vice minister of the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated that Kim “did not understand the US method of calculating the denuclearization.” Dr. Hwang remarks that if the dilemma between peace and denuclearization is not resolved, “the breakdown in Hanoi may be repeated in the future” and strongly argues for a “simultaneous approach that guarantees the regime with denuclearization procedures.”     The Panmunjom summit between President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un on June 30 came as a surprise. The reunion of the two leaders, which began with a tweet from President Trump, was not a short two minute meeting, but rather the third summit with a talk that lasted more than a fifty minutes. Above all, this sudden encounter was interesting in that it marked a new turning point after the failure of the Hanoi summit. In Hanoi, Trump made big demands for denuclearization while Chairman Kim focused on lifting economic sanctions and insisted on pursuing his preferred step-by-step approach to denuclearization, simultaneously and in parallel. After the failure of the Hanoi talks, a pessimistic outlook for the US-North Korean nuclear negotiations prevailed, but new expectations have begun to emerge following the Panmunjom summit. Trump and Kim agreed to resume negotiations between working-level officials. However, it is unclear whether a concrete agreement can be reached through working-level negotiations. The difference between the two is still large.   What the US Thinks The United States has remained suspicious of North Korea’s commitment to denuclearization, and stating that it aimed to completely dismantle all weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and ballistic missile programs, including the entirety of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities as well as all nuclear materials, facilities, and biochemical weapons which are located outside of Yongbyon. The United States believes that the complete denuclearization of North Korea will result in true peace on the Korean Peninsula. Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula for the US means dismantling North Korea’s nuclear program completely. The “complete denuclearization” that the US envisions means that all nuclear weapons, nuclear warheads, nuclear facilities, ballistic missiles, and weapons of mass destruction possessed by North Korea must be reported and verified from the start of implementation, even if the denuclearization is implemented in a step-by-step procedure. CVID (Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible Denuclearization) and FFVD (Final Verified Denuclearization), which the United States has emphasized, are both reflective of the US position.   What North Korea Thinks However, North Korea believes that the peace regime on the Korean Peninsula should precede denuclearization and that peace on the Korean Peninsula is what will lead to denuclearization. The sequence of agreements made in Singapore also reflects this understanding. North Korea has not recognized the nuclear issue as North Korea’s problem, instead recognizing it as a problem of the entire Korean Peninsula, inclusive of South Korea and the United States. In the past, Kim Il Sung argued that the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula did not originate from the North Korean nuclear program, but began with the introduction of nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula by the US during the Cold War period. That is why North Korea criticizes the expression “North Korean nuclear problem” and has stuck to the expression “nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula.” In addition, North Korea has argued that their nuclear weapons protect rather than threaten peace on the Peninsula. For North Korea, it is the United States that threatens the peace on the Peninsula, and the North Koreans believe that they has prevented the breakout of further war on the Korean Peninsula through nuclear deterrence. In the end, North Korea remains convinced that they can denuclearize only when the hostile relations between the US and North Korea fundamentally change and a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula has been achieved. Therefore, North Korea believes that complete guarantees of the North Korean regime should come before complete denuclearization. In the end, North Korea’s concept of denuclearization means that nuclear disarmament should be implemented not only by North Korea but also by other nuclear powers including the United States.   What Trump Should Know about North Korea Kim Jong Un rejected the proposed Hanoi Agreement because the United States set the frame of negotiations in the structure of security vs. economy and demanded complete denuclearization all at once. Even though Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision regarding denuclearization, his strategy is to negotiate denuclearization through a step-by-step approach, simultaneously and in parallel. The US demand for a big deal far exceeded North Korea’s expectations. After the Singapore summit in June 2018, North Korea believed that the US was in agreement with the North Korean approach. This was why Choi Sun Hee, vice minister of the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated that Kim Jong Un did not understand US method of calculating the denuclearization. Chairman Kim was embarrassed when President Trump demanded an agreement on the final status of denuclearization, including all North Korean nuclear programs, ballistic missiles, and biochemical weapons. Kim Jong Un expected at Hanoi that he could agree to the first step of a partial denuclearization measure and sought to obtain the lifting of economic sanctions in return for the promise to dismantle the regime’s nuclear facilities at Yongbyon. This can be seen from Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho’s statement in a press conference shortly after the talks that “it was the greatest measure that North Korean can take at the present state.” Kim Jong Un’s expectations were based on the step-by-step approach. For North Korea, it is impossible to completely denuclearize with only the lifting of economic sanctions. Because North Korea wants to secure a regime guarantee and a peace regime in return for the last stage of the denuclearization procedure, it prefers the step-by-step approach rather than a major, one-stop deal. Since North Korea’s security problems are focused on the abandonment of the US hostile policy toward the regime, North Korea will ultimately try to make a fundamental change in US policy toward the Korean Peninsula. North Korea’s security problems will not come to an end with the declaration of the end of the Korean War or the conclusion of a peace treaty. North Korea will implement the last stage of the denuclearization procedure only when the security environment around the Korean Peninsula fundamentally changes. It is unclear what types of measures can guarantee North Korea’s regime security, but it would be something like the Vietnamese case, wherein Vietnam now seeks security cooperation with the US despite the fact that the two were at war in the last century. In the end, it will not be easy for the regime to relinquish its nuclear weapons until North Korea’s external security environment changes fundamentally.   After the Panmunjom Summit The Singapore Joint Statement between the US and North Korea was not particularly satisfactory, but the summit nonetheless produced an agreement. Because the Singapore statement was quite comprehensive with regard to denuclearization and a peace regime, the working-level talks after the Panmunjom summit need to focus on the details of denuclearization and the peace regime. It will begin with at least a “small deal” in which the US and North Korea exchange several detailed agendas. At Hanoi, most people expected that Washington and Pyongyang would produce a small deal. However, both turned out to be more demanding than the other anticipated. After the Hanoi summit, expectations turned pessimistic and predicted that the nuclear negotiations would stall, leading to a new crisis like the one in 2017. However, the Panmunjom summit gave rise to a fresh wave of optimism. So where do we go from here? Although there is a consensus that the US should pursue a big deal with FFVD, big deals involve major challenges, and doing so may lead to a breakdown in negotiations once more. Summits do not normally start with a new negotiation at the table. A detailed and specific agreement must be made in advance of a summit. The US and North Korea must focus on narrowing the gap between them during the working-level talks. The negotiations will never be easy, but both sides need to make a greater effort during the working-level negotiations. The working-level talks need to figure out a way to exchange denuclearization and a regime guarantee which can satisfy both sides. When the US demands CVID or FFVD from North Korea, the North demands CVIG or FFVG (guarantee) from the US. Thus, it is important to resolve the dilemma between the two. Unless this dilemma is resolved between the US and North Korea, the breakdown in Hanoi may be repeated in the future even after the Panmunjom summit. Thus, it is necessary to think about how the peace regime on the Korean Peninsula and a North Korean regime guarantee can be implemented simultaneously and in parallel with the denuclearization procedure. Without this trade-off, North Korea will not agree to complete denuclearization. The concept of a peace regime reflects the new order on the Korean Peninsula.     ■ Jihwan Hwang is professor of international relations at the University of Seoul in South Korea. He was a year-long visiting scholar at the Catholic University of America and an instructor at George Washington University in 2017. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Colorado, Boulder.   ■ Typeset by Jinkyung Baek, Research Associate/Project Manager             For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 209) I [email protected]

Jihwan Hwang 2020-06-08Views : 10269