Despite a long history of economic, social and cultural exchange, numerous disputes and conflicts between Korea and Japan remain unresolved. At the foundation of these disputes are perception gaps and rising nationalistic sentiments amongst the Korean and Japanese publics which contribute to the exacerbation of strained relations between the two countries.

The Korea-Japan Future Dialogue addresses various issues of dispute between the two countries accompanied by larger discussions on the public perception gap. Since the first Dialogue was held in Tokyo in May 2013, EAI and The Genron NPO have cooperated to hold roundtables with the host alternating annually between Korea and Japan. The Dialogue offers a valuable venue for citizens to converse and share their perceptions of each other's countries as well as discuss the various factors that hinder bilateral relations from moving forward. In doing so, the Dialogue enables a constructive brainstorming process to take place within civil society by promoting discussions of possible methods that could be utilized to mitigate the existing perception gap. Participants include Korean and Japanese citizens from political, economic, academic and cultural spheres. The "Korea-Japan Future Dialogue" bases its discussions on the "Korea-Japan Public Opinion Survey," which is conducted annually by EAI and The Genron NPO to examine mutual public perceptions.

Working paper
[Korea-Japan Joint Work on the World 2050] ⑩ How can South Korea & Japan Overcome the Impending Population Risk Together?

I. Introduction   Throughout the 20th century, Japan and Korea maintained a complex and contradictory relationship in terms of politics and economics. While Japan, which initiated modernization earlier, had established a modern state and capitalist economy in Asia since the late 19th century, Korea joined the wave of modernization in the early to mid-20th century. The 20th century was a period for both countries to move towards a leading position in the global order. In the 21st century, the time gap between Japan and Korea’s socio-economic development has narrowed, while both countries face future challenges. Among the crises and challenges faced by both countries in the 21st century, population crisis coming from low birth rates and an aging population are particularly difficult issues. The population crisis is difficult to solve and its impact is widespread.   Sociologist Chang Kyung-seop argues that Korea fell into the trap of compressed modernity as it underwent rapid growth (Chang 2022). Both Korea and Japan exhibit characteristics of compressed modernity, and the population crisis for both countries is a product of compressed modernity. Compressed modernity emphasizes not only that modernization proceeded rapidly but also that the process of modernization was uneven and contradictory. The burdens of this unevenness and contradiction were borne by individuals and families, not by social systerns or governments. The sustained decline in fertility rates in Korea and Japan, although at different times, is attributed to this compressed modernity. Aging is not only a biological process but also a socio-economic process, especially a result of compressed modernity.   Responding to social problems involves both resolution and adaptation. Even in the case of the population crisis caused by low birth rates and an aging population, resolution and adaptation are needed simultaneously. In this article, we focus more on the aspect of adaptation to the population crisis rather than resolution. Raising the birth rate is important as a solution to the population crisis. However, even if the birth rate rises immediately, the effects of hitherto low birth rate will continue for quite some time, and adaptation to it is very important and necessary.   In this article, we focus on two aspects of overall social adaptation to the population crisis: pension systern issues and local extinction. We examine trends and responses to these issues in Korea and Japan so far, and discuss how Korea and Japan can respond together in the future.   II. Population Crisis and Problems in Korea and Japan   Demography explains demographic transition as part of modernization as follows (Kirk 1996). A traditional society with high birth and death rates maintains a stable population, but when the standard of living improves and medical technology develops, the death rate decreases while the birth rate remains constant, resulting in a rapid increase in population. This rapidly increasing population leads to a crisis of overpopulation as argued by Malthus. As modernization progresses, however, the birth rate decreases, and a balance between low birth and low death rates is achieved, resulting in a stable population again. Countries in Europe and North America have generally followed this pattern of demographic transition.   However, the countries that joined modernization later, such as East Asian countries including Japan and South Korea, did not follow this pattern of demographic transition (Zaidi and Morgan 2017; Atoh et al. 2004). In these countries, modernization started later than the West, and the process was accelerated. A good example is economic growth, and another is demographic transition. Life expectancy increased rapidly, as did the decline in birth rates. In addition, Korea, Japan, and East Asian countries experienced more dramatic change compared to the West. Both the decline in death rates and the decline in birth rate was extremely large. This extreme and rapid change has exacerbated demographic transition, the result of which is a crisis of rapid aging and population decline.   Korea and Japan currently belong to the group of countries with the longest life expectancy in the world. In 2022, Korea’s life expectancy was 83.5 years, and Japan’s was 84.7 years, significantly higher than the OECD average of 80.5 years. High life expectancy increases the proportion of older people living long lives, leading to an overall aging of the population. However, it is the fertility rate that has a more significant impact on the aging of the population. Sharp decline in the influx of new population through childbirth results in a decreasing proportion of young people and a rapidly increasing proportion of the elderly.   Korea and Japan not only have the highest life expectancy but also the lowest fertility rates (OECD 2023). The next graph shows the changing fertility rates in Korea and Japan. The fertility rate of Japan, which remained high due to the encouragement of childbirth during World War II and the postwar baby boom, dropped rapidly after the war. In contrast, South Korea’s total fertility rate was still high enough to exceed 6 until the beginning of modernization in 1960, but has since continued to decline. In Japan, birth control was introduced with concerns about an excess population during the economic difficulties after the war. In Korea, birth control was implemented semi-compulsively under the name of family planning projects with the advice of international organizations and government encouragement. Japan’s fertility rate fell below the replacement level of 2.2 in 1960, but has remained higher than 1.2 until 2020. On the other hand, Korea fell below the replacement level in 1983 and has consistently stayed around 1.2 in the 2000s, before dropping below 1.0 in 2018.   [Figure 1] Fertility rate of Japan and South Korea: trend and projection   The effect of low birth rates is temporarily offset by the extension of life expectancy, but ultimately, the population growth slows down and then declines. As shown in the next graph, Japanese population decline began in 2005 when deaths exceeded births, and the total population decline, including foreigners, started in 2010. In Korea, population decline started in 2020, 15 years later than Japan, but the total population, including foreigners, has recently increased, so population decline is not yet a serious problem.   [Figure 2] Population size of Japan and South Korea: trend and projection   According to population prediction, the total population of Japan in 2050 is expected to be 14.68 million and the total population of Korea is expected to be 4,234 million, 81.7% of each country’s population just before population decline. Considering Korea’s current ultra-low fertility rate, Korea’s population decline after 2050 is expected to proceed much faster than Japan’s.   However, by 2050, the core of the population crisis is not the size of the population but the composition or distribution of the population. Rapid decline in the influx of young people and the increasing lifespan of the elderly disrupt the balance of the population and send ripple effects on the economy and society as a whole. The figure below shows the trend of the elderly dependency ratio, the number of elderly people aged 65 or older that one hundred people of working age must support, for Japan and Korea. Around 1960, when Japan’s postwar revival was in full swing and Korea’s economic development began, the elderly dependency ratio was 8.9 in Japan and 5.3 in Korea. The low elderly dependency ratio provided favorable conditions for economic development, and Korea and Japan enjoyed the population premium in economic development. The elderly dependency ratio began to rise sharply in the 1990s for Japan and in the 2010s for South Korea. Currently, Japan’s elderly dependency ratio exceeds 50, and Korea’s exceeds 20. As Korea’s elderly dependency ratio increases rapidly, both Korea and Japan are expected to approach 80 by 2050.   [Figure 3] Old age dependency ratio of Japan and South Korea: trend and projection   Overall, the population crisis in Japan and Korea is characterized by an aging population and ultra-low fertility rates since the mid-20th century, accompanied by a sharp increase in the elderly dependency ratio and population decline. The economic impacts of this population crisis can be summarized as follows:   First, there will be a shortage of labor due to a population decline, particularly the working-age population. Responses to this problem include utilizing robots and AI, utilizing idle workforce, extending retirement ages, and increasing immigration from abroad.   Second, there will be a fiscal crisis caused by a rapid increase in social welfare costs on aging population. The increase in the elderly population not only increases medical costs but also threatens the pension systern for living after retirement. Responses to this problem include reforming the pension systern to enhance its sustainability and extending retirement ages and delaying the receipt of pensions.   Third, there is the issue of local extinction caused by the concentration of young people in metropolitan areas. As young people flock to big cities, the fertility rate in rural areas is significantly lower than in urban areas, and rural areas are at risk of extinction. Responses to this problem include maintaining the local population by increasing the influx of foreign workers, among others, and consolidating local administrative districts.   In this article, we focus on the second and third problems and explore Japan and Korea’s responses to them, seeking directions for cooperation between Korea and Japan to prepare for 2050.   III. Pension issues and responses in Korea and Japan   Though the Japanese pension systern began in the late 1930s, but a universal pension systern for all citizens was introduced after the enactment of the National Pension Act in 1959 (Nomura 2019). After the introduction of the Welfare Pension for employees, the National Pension for the general public, including self-employed individuals, emerged in 1961. Although the pension systern was divided between employees and the self-employed, Japan’s pension systern is characterized by a large government subsidy. Japanese government has continuously increased the share of national expenditure in pensions to appease public dissatisfaction several times to resolve financial crises in the pension systern throughout the latter half of the 20th century.   The pension systern for civil servants was introduced in 1960, followed by the systern for military personnel in 1963 and for private school teachers in 1974. Although the National Pension Act was enacted in 1973, the actual pension systern began with the amendment of the National Pension Act in 1986 and the introduction of the pension systern for employees in 1988 ( Yang 2023). In 1995, pension systern included farmers and fishermen, and in 1999, a pension for urban residents was introduced, covering the entire population. There has been little government subsidy to the national pension in Korea so far. This contrasts with the substantial government contributions to the pension systern in Europe and Japan.   Japan’s National Pension initially operated on a fully funded systern, but has since shifted to a pay-as-you-go systern. Korea’s National Pension is also fully funded in principle, but in reality, it is a partially funded systern that may shift to a pay-as-you-go systern in the future due to the pressure of ageing population.   The problem with all national pensions is that pension fund may deplete if the number of beneficiaries increases while the number of contributors decreases. This is inevitable, especially in countries like Japan and Korea where aging is rapidly progressing due to ultra-low birth rates. When the national pension systern shifts from a fully funded systern to a pay-as-you-go systern, the issue of intergenerational equity arises. This is because a large number of elderly people enjoy comfortable retirements through pensions, while a smaller number of younger generations bear a heavier pension burden and their future pension benefits are at risk (Klein and Mosler 2021).   To address these issues, the response is to delay the eligibility age for pensions and lower the income replacement rate, meaning less money is received and pension contributions increases. However, the problem is that the public is not willing to accept such proposals of increasing current pain to avoid future crises.   In Japan, during the high growth period of the late 20th century, pension payments were increased to match inflation and wage increases to ensure income security. However, since entering a period of low growth, Japan has made efforts to increase the sustainability of the pension systern. As a result, in 1994, a systern to gradually raise the pension eligibility age from 60 to 65 was introduced through amendments to the pension act, and this is still ongoing. However, this is still lower than in other developed countries, so such reforms were not very effective (Higo 2021). In 2022, a plan to further delay the pension eligibility age from 65 to 75 was announced. Additionally, in 2004, the Koizumi administration implemented reforms to increase the pension contribution-to-income ratio from 13.9% to 18.3% by 2017.   Despite these efforts, Japan’s pension systern still faces many risks. Most importantly, although the contribution rate to the national pension has been raised, the government’s burden is still heavy. Furthermore, when we look at the overall social security systern, the real problem lies in that the share of expenditures in social security costs related to the elderly is high, making it inevitable that the fiscal burden will continue to increase (Jung 2021). Japan’s social security costs increased from 5.8% of GDP in 1970 to 13.7% in 1990 and then to 32.8% in 2021. This ratio is expected to exceed 40% by 2050, accounting for the largest part of Japan’s fiscal burden.   The rapid increase in Japan’s social security costs is driven by the fact that two-thirds of social security costs are related to the elderly (Jung 2021). In addition to pensions, medical care costs, and other welfare services costs are all increasing rapidly with population aging. The lack of an increase in the tax burden rate despite the continued increase in social security spending further contributes to the increase in fiscal problem. Despite the steady increase in social security spending, the tax burden rate has not actually increased since 1990. As a result, the scale of Japan’s long-term government bonds has rapidly increased, reaching 225% of GDP by 2020. Moreover, the tax revenue has not increased since 1990 due to low growth, while government spending has continued to increase. The largest portion of current government spending is social security spending, accounting for more than half of it, and two-thirds of it is related to the elderly (OECD 2023).   In Korea, there are similarities and differences compared to Japan. All employees and self-employed individuals are included in the same national pension systern in Korea, unlike Japan’s separate pension systerns for employees and the self-employed. When the Korean National Pension systern was launched in 1988, it was designed unrealistically with a high income replacement rate of 70% and a very low contribution rate of 3%. Since then, several revisions have been made, and the current income replacement rate has been lowered to 40%, and the contribution rate has been increased to 9% (Yang 2023). However, it still falls short of half of Japan’s 18.3%. This pension systern is sustainable only under the assumption that the population continues to grow.   [Figure 4] Korea’s National Pension Plan Contribution & Replacement Rates Source: (Lee and Shin 2024).   However, this systern becomes not sustainable if the population declines and the proportion of elderly people increases rapidly (Lee and Shin 2024). South Korea’s pension eligibility age has been 60 since its inception, and it will gradually increase to 65 by 2033, starting in 2023. There are voices calling for a higher retirement age in South Korea, with one of the highest life expectancies alongside Japan. A pension systern is unsustainable if the expected rate of return is higher than 1, meaning there are more benefits from than contributions to the systern. Especially in a country like South Korea, with little subsidy from the government, relying solely on the pension fund can lead to fund depletion. The figure below shows a projection of when the fund will deplete if the current premium rate of 9% continues and if the premium rate increases to 18%, comparable to Japan. If the current premium rate is maintained, the pension fund will be depleted in 2055. If we do not reduce the income replacement rate, which is the basic purpose of pensions, we need to increase the premium rate, and if we increase the premium rate to 18%, the fund will be depleted around 2080.   [Figure 5] Projections for National Pension financial balance and reserve fund Source: (Lee and Shin 2024).   The South Korean government has been discussing and debating pension reform for some time, with various reform alternatives, but no reform bill has yet been passed by the National Assembly. South Korea, like Japan, is on the verge of a significant increase in government spending on healthcare and other social security for the elderly. South Korean government spending on social security is currently 15.5% of GDP, lower than Japan’s, but is expected to rise to 26.9% by 2065. Overall reforms are needed to make the social security systern, including pensions, more sustainable.   IV. Rural decline and responses in Korea and Japan   The impact of aging is also evident in the spatial distribution of the population. Globally, industrialization and urbanization have led to a concentration of population in cities. In countries that have experienced compressive modernization, such as South Korea and Japan, this process has been even more rapid.   In Japan, the high growth period since 1955 has led to a concentration of population in three major urban areas: Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya. As a result, only eight of Japan’s 47 metropolitan areas grew in population during the high-growth period: Tokyo, Osaka, Kanagawa, Aichi, Hyogo, Saitama, Chiba, and Fukuoka. After the high-growth period ended, migration from rural areas to metropolitan areas generally eased, but the Tokyo metropolitan area continued to attract people. Since most of the people who moved to the cities were young people, the rural areas that lost population were left with not only a shortage of people but also a high proportion of elderly people (Jung 2021).   The same is true in South Korea, where the process of modernization and high economic growth has led to a concentration of population in metropolitan areas. Prior to high growth, the Seoul metropolitan area centered on the Gyeongbu axis and the southeast region centered on Busan established themselves as large cities. During industrialization, Daegu grew into a metropolis, and as a result of high growth, Incheon and Suwon became metropolises in the metropolitan area and Ulsan in the southeast. As in Japan, the Seoul-centered metropolitan area is the only one with sustained population growth after the high-growth period (Yim 1994).   Both South Korea and Japan have made efforts to revitalize rural areas as the concentration of population in large cities during the high-growth process has led to the shrinkage of rural areas. However, there have been little success. Especially since the 2000s, the crisis in rural areas has intensified as the birthrate has remained extremely low and the population has aged rapidly. As flight of young people to Tokyo and Seoul continued, a growing number of local governments failed to maintain the minimum population size to function as autonomous units. The difference between the rural crisis of the high-growth period and the current rural crisis is that while the problem of the past was the atrophy of rural areas, the current problem is the disappearance of rural areas.   Japan’s municipalities have dwindled from nearly 70,000 to fewer than 1,720 in the 2000s, following major mergers during the Meiji, Showa, and Heisei periods. In 2014, a private organization called the Population Strategy Committee, led by Masuda Haroya, a former senior Japanese government official, calculated the percentage of basic municipalities at risk of disappearing by 2040. The risk of disappearance was calculated based on the percentage of women of childbearing age in the total population. In the figure above, the brown areas are those at risk of extinction as of 2014, totaling 896, or 52% of all basic municipalities. The figure below is based on the same 2024 data and shows that the number of at-risk areas in yellow is 744 (43% of the total), a decrease from 10 years ago (Suzuki 2024; Cho 2024). The main reason for the decrease is the migration of foreigners.   [Figure 6] Local municipalities at risk of extinction in Japan, 2040: Comparison of projection in 2014 (above) vs 2024 (below) Source: (Population Strategy Council 2014; 2024).   In South Korea, the situation is similar or worse than in Japan. The number of municipalities in South Korea has increased to 229 since 2010. South Korea’s National Audit Office calculated the proportion of basic municipalities at risk of disappearance due to future population decline, following the way Japan’s Population Strategy Commission calculated in 2021, and found that in 2017, there were 12, or 5.2% of the total, and that by 2047, 157 municipalities, or 68.6% of the total, will be at risk of disappearance if the current trend of rapid aging continues. Even more shocking is the result that after the mid-2060s, more than 90% of foundation municipalities will be at risk of disappearing (The Board of Audit and Inspection of Korea 2021).   [Figure 7] Projection of local municipalities at risk of extinction in Korea Source: (The Board of Audit and Inspection of Korea 2021).   In both Japan and South Korea, rural decline is an imminent risk by 2050. Many policy reports on the risk of rural decline recommended increasing the fertility rate of rural areas, minimizing the outflow of young people, or maintaining the population through migration from abroad. However, these efforts have been already made in the past with little success. Other responses include focusing on regional hubs and merging municipalities to form larger cities. However, these changes require the consent and support of many residents.   V. Future Prospects for Cooperation in Addressing the Population Crisis in Japan and South Korea   We looked at the population challenges faced together by Korea and Japan: the crisis surrounding pensions and social security, and rural decline. Neither of these issues is easy to solve or respond to.   In the case of pensions and social security, Japan needs to lower the social security spending on elderly people and keep the balance of contributions and benefits to make pensions more sustainable. Similarly, South Korea needs reforms to increase premium rates to maintain income replacement rates. However, in Korea and Japan, where the elderly people are becoming a larger and larger share of the electorate, these reforms are likely to be made to improve intergenerational equity. Furthermore, it is possible that they will reject reforms to pension and social security systerns altogether.   In a socio-political climate of increasing gerontocracy, attaining reforms to promote intergenerational equity requires efforts to make young people interested in and participate in politics to ensure their voices are heard. However, the increasingly isolated and passive social climate for young people is making these efforts more difficult. There is a need for exchanges between young people in Korea and Japan, especially those aimed at raising awareness of their rights and revitalizing their political participation. Such constructive and forward-looking exchanges could be the first step toward more proactive social security and pension reforms to promote intergenerational equity.   The cooperation and trust between the central government, local governments, and local residents is crucial to preventing the disappearance of municipalities and revitalizing them. While the major merger of Japan’s municipalities in the past has faced many difficulties and opposition, the future expansion of municipalities will need to overcome many objections and complaints. This will require the streamlining of local governments and the ability to increase access to administrative and welfare services over large areas. It will also require administrative and business capacity to overhaul abandoned houses and facilities in rural areas. It would be beneficial for Japan and South Korea to create joint organizations to collaborate on rural revitalization, create business opportunities, exchange best practices, and make efforts to engage and interact with residents. The high level of mutual interest in popular culture and daily lives of South Korea and Japan provides favorable conditions for such exchanges.   Finally, learning and cooperation through the exchange of information and experiences between Japan and South Korea can be very helpful in responding to aging, not only at the local but also at the central government level. Both Japan and South Korea are moving toward a future of declining birthrates and aging populations that is unprecedented globally. So far, Japan has experienced aging ahead of South Korea, but if aging continues at the current pace, South Korea will have a more severe aging problem than Japan after 2050. If Korea and Japan collaborate on discussions and responses to aging at the civil society level, including academia, rather than just at the administrative level of government, it will be more productive and have a greater societal impact than if each country tries to solve its own problems. ■   References   Atoh, Makoto, Vasantha Kandiah, and Serguey Ivanov. 2004. “The Second Demographic Transition in Asia? Comparative Analysis of the Low Fertility Situation in East and South-East Asian Countries.” The Japanese Journal of Population 2(1): 42-75.   Chang, Kyung-Sup. 2022. The Logic of Compressed Modernity. Cambridge: Polity.   Cho, Sungho. 2024. “Japan’s Policy Responses to Municipalities at Risk of Extinction.”   Global Social Security Review (31): 101-113.   Higo, Masa. 2021. “Making Sense of Japan’s Retirement Reform: An International Perspective.” Res. Bull. International Student Center, Kyushu University (29): 1-11   Jung, Hyun-Sook. 2021. Japan, Country with Population Crisis (In Korean). Seoul: Espisteme.   Kirk, Dudley. 1996. “Demographic Transition Theory.” Population Studies 50(3): 361-387.   Klein, Axel, and Hannes Mosler. 2021. “The Oldest Societies in Asia: The Politics of Ageing in South Korea and Japan.” In Global Political Demography: The Politics of Population Change, ed. Hannes Mosler and Axel Klein, 195-217. Cham: Springer International Publishing.   Lee, Kang-koo, and Seung-ryong Shin. 2024. “Korea’s National Pension: Structural Reform Measures.” KDI Focus, February 21.   Nomura, Akiko. 2019. “Japan’s Pension systern: Challenges and Implications.” Nomura Institute of Capital Markets Research.   Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). 2023. Pensions at a Glance 2023. http://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/population.html   Suzuki, Kohei. 2024. “Japan’s Local Governments and Governance Under Population Decline.” In Handbook on Subnational Governments and Governance, 193-207. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.   The Board of Audit and Inspection of Korea. 2021. Responses to Structural Changes in Population. Audit Report.   Yang, Jae-jin. 2023. “The Developmental State, Export-Oriented Industrialization, and South Korea’s Social Security systern.” In The Oxford Handbook of Governance and Public Management for Social Policy, 219. Oxford: Oxford University Press.   Yim, Seok-Hoi. 1994. “Problems of Administrative Area systern in Korea and Reforming Direction.” Journal of the Korean Geographical Society 29(1): 65-83.   Zaidi, Batool, and S. Philip Morgan. 2017. “The Second Demographic Transition Theory: A Review and Appraisal.” Annual Review of Sociology 43(1): 473-492.     ■ Joon Han is Chair of Innovative Future Research Center at the East Asia Institute and Professor of Sociology at Yonsei University.     ■ Typeset by Chaerin Kim, Research Assistant     For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | [email protected]  

Joon Han 2025-04-01Views : 6395
Working paper
[Korea-Japan Joint Work on the World 2050] ⑨ 2050 South Korea-Japan Cooperation in Energy and Climate Change-related Areas: Beyond Energy Security

I. Response to Global Energy Transition   In 2025, South Korea and Japan celebrate the 60th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations. The two countries, or rather, two regions, have influenced and been influenced by each other for millennia, or even longer. The past 60 years is only a small part of the history of their relationship. As long as the two countries are still there, they will continue to have a significant impact on each other, for better or worse.   What does it mean for these two countries to think about 2050 together? While 2050 may seem like a long way off, if we look back at the relationship between South Korea and Japan 25 years ago, in 2000, 2050 may not seem so far away. The purpose of this paper is to envision the future of 2050 and suggest what South Korea and Japan might pursue in the energy and climate change sectors in that future.   The world is undergoing a profound transformation as it grapples with the dual imperatives of mitigating climate change and ensuring sustainable energy supply. By 2050, the energy landscape will be substantially reshaped, and countries like South Korea and Japan will be at the forefront of this shift. These nations, both technologically advanced and economically significant, face overlapping challenges but also share unique opportunities for collaboration.   The importance of South Korea and Japan’s cooperation extends beyond bilateral benefits. As leaders in innovation and renewable energy technologies, their joint efforts can serve as a model for the global community. This paper explores the key challenges and opportunities for South Korea and Japan in the energy and climate sectors, evaluates the prospects for bilateral cooperation, and provides strategies to deepen their partnership by 2050.   This paper is organized as follows. The next chapter analyzes what South Korea and Japan will look like in 2050 and the challenges they will face in common. Chapter 3 analyzes the benefits and limitations of the two countries working together to overcome the challenges they share. In Chapter 4, I will make policy recommendations centered on areas where the two countries can and should collaborate to achieve positive results. Finally, Chapter 5 summarizes the contents of this paper and concludes with recommendations for a new South Korea-Japan relationship in 2050.   II. Key Challenges for South Korea and Japan in 2050   As early as 2017, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), a global accounting and management consulting firm headquartered in London, made a forecast for 2050. According to their projections, China and India will surpass the United States in economic size by 2050, while emerging economies such as Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, and Mexico will also enter the top 10 in terms of economic size. By comparison, the countries currently categorized as the so-called Group of Seven (G7) will drop out of the top 10, with the exception of the U.S., Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany. PwC dubbed China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, and Türkiye the E7, meaning the seven emerging market countries, and by 2040, it predicted that the E7 would already be twice the size of the current G7 (PwC 2017, 3-4).   In the meantime, both South Korea and Japan are facing shrinking economies. According to PwC’s projections, Japan’s economy, which is ranked fourth in 2030, will drop to eighth by 2050, while South Korea’s economy, which is ranked 14th in 2030, will drop to 18th by 2050. Between South Korea and Japan in 2050 will be the traditional G7 countries of Germany, the UK, and France, but also the emerging economies of Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Egypt, and Pakistan, PwC estimated (Ibid. 7).   The relative decline in the economies of the two countries is deeply related to the changing demographics. At the time of the report, PwC projected that South Korea’s population would grow by 0% in real terms between 2016 and 2050, while Japan’s would shrink by 0.5% over the same period (Ibid. 33). As of December 2024, both countries are “super-aged societies” by the United Nations’ standards, [1] with South Korea’s 2024 birth rate estimated at 0.68 (Morse 2024) and Japan’s at 1.374 (Macrotrends n.d.).   One of the challenges that both societies face in common with demographic change is the gap between the center and the provinces. As of 2023, South Korea’s urbanization rate is 81.46% (Statista 2024b) and Japan’s is 90.04% (Statista 2024a), and in both countries, the disparity between metropolitan areas and rural areas is so severe that the term “local extinction (地方消滅: 지방소멸)” [2] has emerged, with population decline accelerating much faster in rural areas. This growing regional disparity is also related to the question of how balanced the use of land is. Even in 2050, urbanization rates and population concentration in South Korea and Japan are unlikely to improve dramatically. In fact, urbanization is likely to accelerate, especially when considering access to public services that are essential for the aging population, such as healthcare.   Climate change is another major challenge for both South Korea and Japan. According to the Climate Change Knowledge Portal, the average temperature in South Korea was 11.03℃ in 1965, when diplomatic relations with Japan were normalized, and 13.32℃ in 2023, an increase of 2.29℃ in just less than 50 years. Japan’s average temperature was 10.04℃ in 1965 and 12.99℃ in 2023, an increase of 2.95℃ in the same period.   The 2015 Paris Agreement, which marked a milestone in the global governance of climate change, committed parties to limit the increase in the average global temperature to 2℃ above pre-industrial levels, with a goal of 1.5℃. However, the Paris Agreement’s goal is becoming irrelevant as it is estimated that the average global temperature increase will have already exceeded 1.5℃ by 2024 (WMO 2024). Furthermore, South Korea and Japan are on track to experience higher temperature increases than the global average as mentioned above. Since climate change is a global phenomenon, the effects of rising global temperatures will affect everyone, and the impact on South Korea and Japan in 2050 could be greater than in other parts of the world. Therefore, adaptation is becoming an increasingly important issue for both societies.   The damage caused by climate change will be multifaceted. First and foremost, natural disasters will not only become more frequent, but also more intense. Japan has always been prone to earthquakes and volcanoes due to its location on the Pacific Ring of Fire, but typhoons and heavy rains are likely to be even more damaging. South Korea, which is less prepared for natural disasters than Japan, could also be at increasingly serious risk.   Second, climate change also affects food security. Living in temperate regions with four distinct seasons, people in both countries need a variety of proteins from meat and seafood, not just grains like rice, to sustain their diets. Rising land and sea temperatures are already changing the types of crops and fish that can be produced in both countries. By 2050, this will only accelerate, deepening food security concerns.   Another challenge that both countries share in common is the security situation. Both countries are allies of the world’s most powerful nation, the U.S., and share the burden of security based on the alliances, and both have relied on strategic assets such as the nuclear umbrella provided by the U.S. to drive their economies forward. The year of 2023 was a particularly significant year for the South Korea-U.S.-Japan triangle, as the three leaders met at Camp David in August to solidify their commitment to security cooperation. This was an effort to effectively respond to the escalating nuclear threat from North Korea and to provide a deterrent against China’s increasingly coercive behavior in the region. In short, the three countries’ security cooperation was driven by the common threat of North Korea and, by extension, China. Assuming that this situation will not have changed significantly in 2050, arguably, it can be expected that the three countries will maintain or even develop their security cooperation further.   Meanwhile, technology is bound to become increasingly important in the security cooperation of the three countries, South Korea, Japan, and the U.S.. In particular, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and space technology are key parts of the competition for future technological supremacy, and securing a stable energy supply, or energy security, is an indispensable condition. As digitalization and electrification progress, the demand for energy in both nations is projected to rise significantly. AI-driven systerns, data centers, and electric vehicles (EVs) will exacerbate the strain on energy systerns. The International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasizes that the backbone of this transition must include scalable renewable energy sources (IEA 2021, 73-74).   In particular, South Korea and Japan have virtually no resources within their territory, and assuming that relations with continental countries have not improved dramatically in 2050, it is less likely that they will be able to share energy infrastructure with the Eurasian continent, so we can expect that they will continue to rely heavily on importing energy sources through maritime transportation.   However, as mentioned earlier, combating climate change is a very urgent issue for both countries, so it is important to accelerate the energy transition. In addition, the two countries announced their “carbon neutrality by 2050” goals within days of each other in 2020. They also enacted this goal into law. IEA notes that achieving net zero (being used interchangeably with carbon neutrality) by 2050 will require an extraordinary alignment of policies, technologies, and investments (Ibid. 14). For South Korea and Japan, these challenges are amplified by their dependence on imported energy, aging populations, and increasing urbanization. In short, the future of both countries in 2050 will depend on how quickly and steadily they move forward with the energy transition while ensuring energy security.   The shift to green energy technologies has intensified global competition for critical minerals and renewable energy components. South Korea and Japan rely heavily on imports for these resources, making them vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. In 2019, Arup, a British multinational company that provides engineering, design, and project management services for the environment, published a report providing scenarios for 2050. Arup presents four scenarios for the future of the world, including (1) post anthropocene, (2) greentocracy, (3) extinction express, (4) humans inc. One of the key variables that distinguishes these scenarios is global cooperation, and scenario 3, with low global cooperation, is the most damaging, as it will ultimately hinder the energy transition and accelerate temperature rise (Schemel et al. 2019). In a scenario where international cooperation is not as smooth as it could be, the energy transitions in South Korea and Japan are also unlikely to move as quickly as desired.   It is hard to say how fast the energy transition can be, but as long as both countries are committed to tackling climate change with the goal of being carbon neutral by 2050, it will continue to happen. In addition, as the energy transition coincides with the fourth industrial revolution, the transformation to a hyper-connected society, both countries will be concerned about cybersecurity. The integration of smart grids and Internet of Things (IoT)-based energy systerns, while enhancing efficiency, exposes critical infrastructure to cyberattacks. IEA also emphasizes that cybersecurity is an increasingly important issue for electricity systerns and that policymakers have a critical role to play (IEA 2021, 174).   III. Prospects for Bilateral Cooperation   Based on the common challenges outlined in the previous chapter, I believe that both South Korea and Japan should aim for either the first or second of Arup’s scenarios as they move toward 2050.   The first scenario, post anthropocene, is described by Arup’s report as “The world of 2050 boasts a balanced biosphere: humanity and ‘spaceship Earth’ are thriving in harmony.” There is a high level of global cooperation, clean energy penetration is very high (over 90%), income inequality is low, and weather variability is stable. To realize this scenario, advances in science and technology are key, jobs are created through the green economy, and public-private partnerships prioritize the sustainability of the planet (Schemel et al. 2019, 12-23).   For the second scenario, greentocracy, Arup’s report describes it as “In 2050, societies are highly divided, unequal and suppressed. Most of the Earth’s ecosysterns are on a clearly chartered recovery plan.” In this scenario, global cooperation for the environment is moderate, so clean energy utilization is high, but the gap between rich and poor is wide because some people are unwilling to trade off opportunity costs for a higher standard of living, and population is concentrated in urban areas, making space very expensive (Ibid. 24-35).   The scenario that South Korea and Japan should pursue is more likely to be the first, but given the realities that South Korea and Japan face as of January 2025, the second seems more likely. To avoid a worst-case scenario like extinction express, global cooperation will be a key variable. Accordingly, I would argue efforts to move closer to scenarios 1 and 2 through collaboration between the two most physically close countries, South Korea and Japan, are necessary.   The positive effects of cooperation between South Korea and Japan can be summarized as follows. First, the cooperation between the two countries can contribute to the expansion of the culture and norms of global cooperation. Although their economies will be relatively smaller in 2050, as described in the previous chapter, the fact that two countries that are not only ahead of the E7 in economic development but also have a certain advantage in future technologies could have significant implications for other countries in the E7 and beyond.   Second, if the two countries, which have historically had many twists and turns, can work together on energy and climate change, it will contribute to the improvement of their relationship, and a sustainable friendship between the two countries can contribute to the stability of East Asia as a whole. If we remember that the history of European integration began with the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community, by European leaders who recognized that coal and steel were the fuels of World War II, the French and German experience of flying the flag of European integration can be replicated by South Korea and Japan in Asia.   Third, as the economies of these two countries continue to shrink, their cooperation could expand the economic benefits of economies of scale: examples are the supply of natural gas, which is likely to remain an important energy source even during energy transition (Maxwell 2023, 5-6; 9-10), the supply of critical minerals, essential for the expansion of renewable energy, and the supply of nuclear fuel for nuclear power plants, expected to become an increasingly important source of decarbonized energy, cooperation between the two countries to strengthen their purchasing power and expand their markets can contribute to enhancing their energy security and accelerating decarbonization.   But even so, there are many factors that limit cooperation between the two countries. First and foremost, I cannot but emphasize the variables arising from the differences in the political systerns of the two countries. After the Democratic Party of Korea’s landslide victory in the April 2024 general election, the presidential and parliamentary conflicts and confrontations that followed culminated in President Yoon Suk-yeol announcing emergency martial law on December 3. The subsequent impeachment was a demonstration of the risks of a divided and politically polarized South Korea. This, in turn, highlights the limitations of the presidential systern and the fact that the two-party systern is prone to large swings in policy as social divisions and conflicts become more acute. This is also the case in the U.S..   By comparison, Japan, which operates a parliamentary systern, is much more stable than South Korea in terms of policy coherence. Of course, Japan has its share of problems, and Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru is currently struggling to lead the Liberal Democratic Party, which has become a minority party in the Japanese Diet, but it has not seen as many policy swings as South Korea. While it cannot be said that the policy-making process in Japanese society is the same as it was in the past, when Japanese experts such as Chalmers Johnson illuminated the role of Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) in Japan’s industrial policy and emphasized that Japanese policies are made by elite bureaucrats rather than politicians (1982), I would say that Japan’s policy stability is higher than that of South Korea, at least in the sense that the policies of the previous government do not change to the point of being completely overturned. Japan is also limited by the fact that change and reform are slower than in South Korea. In the end, this difference is a factor that makes cooperation between the two countries difficult.   The second is the structural difference between the two countries’ energy markets. While Japan’s energy market is fully liberalized, [3] South Korea’s is still vertically integrated and more centralized, with public energy corporations as the main actors. Moreover, the leadership of public corporations tends to change significantly depending on the government, which adds to the aforementioned political instability and can lead to large swings in policy direction. Adding to this is the huge amount of debt that South Korea’s public energy corporations are carrying (The Korea Times 2024). While there may be structural changes to South Korea’s vertical and rigid energy market in 2050, it is clearly different from Japan’s market, where private companies are the main actors, making coherent cooperation difficult.   Finally, there is a risk that nationalistic tendencies, which are latent in both countries, could come to the forefront of policymaking, making it difficult for the two countries to cooperate if they are driven by national emotions rather than economic realities or strategic interests.   Despite these challenges, South Korea and Japan are well-positioned to leverage their complementary strengths for mutual benefit. Both nations have demonstrated leadership in renewable energy technologies and have ambitious goals for carbon neutrality. In the next chapter, I will propose policies that could help South Korea and Japan move closer to Arup’s scenario 1.   IV. Proposed Areas for Korea-Japan Cooperation in Energy and Climate   South Korea and Japan, as technologically advanced nations and key players in the East Asian region, are uniquely positioned to lead global efforts in the energy transition and climate adaptation. By cooperating across a range of strategic areas, they can enhance mutual energy security, contribute to global sustainability goals, and set a standard for bilateral partnerships worldwide. Below, I elaborate on the ten proposed areas of cooperation.   1. Building a Common Market for Natural Gas   Natural gas remains a critical transitional energy source in the journey to carbon neutrality, offering a relatively lower carbon alternative to coal and oil. A common market for natural gas between South Korea and Japan can enhance energy security by pooling resources, stabilizing prices, and diversifying supply chains. Joint procurement initiatives could reduce costs and mitigate risks associated with geopolitical disruptions, such as tensions in the Middle East, a key supplier region.   It was recently reported that Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS), originally planned to withdraw from the upstream (development) business of the Senoro gas field in Indonesia after 2027, extended the contract until 2047, and the KOGAS-Mitsubishi 20th Regular Meeting resumed for the first time in five years after the pandemic (Choi 2024). Business-to-business cooperation should continue despite potential political instability. Additionally, integrating natural gas storage and distribution networks would improve resilience against supply shocks while encouraging LNG infrastructure development across the region.   2. Sharing Battery Tracking Information for Recycling   Both nations are leaders in battery technology, with industries heavily investing in EVs and renewable energy storage systerns. Establishing a shared battery tracking systern would facilitate recycling and the recovery of critical materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel.   Europe is already designing a battery passport scheme. Starting in February 2027, all electric vehicles and industrial batteries over 2 kWh on the EU market will be required to have a unique battery passport that can be searched using a unique product identifier in the form of a QR code. The idea is to increase the recovery rate of key minerals, which is expected to be 50% for lithium, 90% for nickel, 90% for cobalt, and 90% for copper (Stretton 2023).   By leveraging digital tools like blockchain, South Korea and Japan can create a transparent tracking mechanism that monitors the lifecycle of batteries from production to disposal. This collaboration not only addresses resource scarcity but also promotes circular economic practices, reducing environmental harm from mining and waste.   3. Enhancing Enrichment Capacity for Stable Nuclear Fuel Supply   With nuclear power remaining a key component of their energy mix, stable access to enriched uranium is vital for both nations. Already, since Russia caused the war in Ukraine in 2022, enriched uranium, the fuel for nuclear power generation, has emerged as a new thorn among major powers. With the U.S. legislating a ban on imports of enriched uranium from Russia starting in 2028 (U.S. Congress 2024), and Russia responding with export restrictions (Reuters 2024), an invisible war is being waged over the nuclear fuel supply chain. The problem is that Russia has the largest uranium enrichment capacities, while the U.S., UK, and France have inferior capacities. [4]   Joint efforts to enhance enrichment capacity or secure diversified sources of nuclear fuel between South Korea and Japan can reduce dependency on external suppliers and geopolitical vulnerabilities. This cooperation could involve shared research facilities, technology transfer agreements, and collaboration with global partners to meet international safety and non-proliferation standards. Enhanced enrichment capacity will also support the safe expansion of nuclear energy, contributing to long-term carbon neutrality goals.   In addition, the type of fuel will change in the future as new reactors such as Small Module Reactors (SMRs) emerge, so if the two countries and their ally, the U.S., can take the lead in technological cooperation and market expansion, including in High-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) manufacturing process, it will be a significant contribution to energy security of the two countries.   4. Joint Renewable Energy Projects Such as Offshore Wind Farms   Offshore wind presents a significant opportunity for renewable energy generation in East Asia, with both countries boasting substantial technical expertise. In May 2023, Shizen (自然), a private Japanese company, formed a joint venture called Shizen International with South Korean companies to expand its renewable energy business. Shizen is already working on offshore wind projects around the Japanese island of Kyushu and plans to apply this experience to renewable energy projects in Korea (Jang 2023).   Collaborative offshore wind projects in the East Sea could reduce costs through shared infrastructure development and economies of scale. By coordinating on grid connections, turbine manufacturing, and operation and maintenance protocols, South Korea and Japan can unlock the full potential of this resource. These projects would not only provide clean energy but also foster regional cooperation and economic growth in coastal areas.   The importance of offshore wind is already emphasized in Japan’s green growth strategy (METI 2021), and it is an area of great interest and focus for South Korea as well.   5. Building a Common Market for Hydrogen Trading   Hydrogen is a cornerstone of both nations’ energy transition strategies, offering a pathway to decarbonize industries and heavy transport. In November 2023, President Yoon and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio announced their agreement to cooperate on hydrogen and ammonia during a sit-down meeting at Stanford University.   Establishing a common market for hydrogen trading would facilitate the development of hydrogen supply chains and infrastructure. By standardizing hydrogen production, storage, and distribution technologies, South Korea and Japan can enable seamless cross-border trade. Collaborative investments in green hydrogen production, particularly through renewable-powered electrolysis, can further strengthen their positions as global leaders in the hydrogen economy.   6. Promoting Circular Economies through Technologies such as CCUS   Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) technologies are critical for decarbonizing industries that are hard to electrify, such as cement and steel production. South Korea and Japan can jointly develop and deploy CCUS technologies, sharing costs and technical expertise. Additionally, the promotion of circular economic practices, such as using captured CO₂ to produce synthetic fuels or building materials, can reduce waste and drive innovation. These efforts would help both nations meet emissions reduction targets while creating new business opportunities in carbon-based products.   7. Expanding Joint Projects for Green ODA   As leading economies in Asia, South Korea and Japan are well-positioned to extend green Official Development Assistance (ODA) to developing nations. By pooling resources and expertise, they can jointly fund renewable energy projects, climate resilience initiatives, and clean technology transfers in Indo-Pacific and Africa. This collaboration not only strengthens their diplomatic influence but also contributes to global climate goals by supporting sustainable development in vulnerable regions. Establishing a Korea-Japan Green ODA Fund could institutionalize these efforts and ensure long-term impact.   8. Cybersecurity Collaboration   With the increasing digitization of energy systerns, including smart grids and IoT-based infrastructure, the threat of cyberattacks poses a significant risk. As cyberattacks from hostile actors such as North Korea become increasingly sophisticated, a joint response to cybersecurity could also be beneficial to the social stability of both countries.   Cybersecurity collaboration between South Korea and Japan could involve sharing threat intelligence, developing joint response protocols, and investing in advanced encryption technologies. Collaborative research in quantum cryptography and AI-driven threat detection systerns would further enhance the resilience of critical infrastructure. This partnership would not only secure energy systerns but also build trust and interoperability in other sectors reliant on digital networks.   9. Nuclear Safety Cooperation   As both nations continue to rely on nuclear energy, ensuring the highest standards of safety is paramount. As China’s nuclear power plant construction is underway on a very large scale, [5] if South Korea and Japan can work well together in this area and bring China along with them, it will contribute significantly to the safe use of nuclear energy in East Asia, which will have the highest concentration of nuclear power plants in the world.   Joint efforts in nuclear safety could include shared research on reactor designs, improved waste management technologies, and coordinated emergency response protocols. Collaborative training programs for nuclear engineers and regulators would further enhance safety standards.   Additionally, South Korea and Japan could work together to establish a regional nuclear safety framework, promoting best practices and fostering transparency in the nuclear sector.   10. Joint Investment in Future Green Technologies   To maintain their leadership in the energy transition, South Korea and Japan must invest in cutting-edge green technologies. Joint R&D initiatives in areas such as solid-state batteries, advanced solar panels, and next-generation wind turbines could accelerate innovation and reduce costs. By establishing bilateral innovation hubs or funding mechanisms, they can support startups and research institutions working on transformative technologies. These investments would not only benefit both nations but also position them as global hubs for green technology development.   These ten areas of cooperation illustrate the immense potential for South Korea and Japan to lead in the energy transition and climate response. By working together on projects that leverage their technological expertise and shared goals, they can address critical challenges such as energy security, resource scarcity, and climate risks. Beyond bilateral benefits, these initiatives have the potential to set a global standard for international collaboration in sustainable development. Through sustained commitment and mutual trust, South Korea and Japan can pave the way for a greener, more resilient future.   V. Conclusion   The cooperation between South Korea and Japan in the energy and climate sectors is not only essential but also a strategic necessity for addressing shared challenges and achieving mutual benefits. Despite historical tensions, political differences, and structural dissimilarities in their energy markets, the two countries have demonstrated the potential for collaboration that transcends these barriers. This paper underscores the importance of such cooperation, emphasizing that a strong partnership is indispensable for advancing sustainable development and ensuring regional stability in the face of an uncertain future.   The challenges outlined in this paper, including energy security, climate change adaptation, and the global competition for critical resources, highlight the urgency for joint action. South Korea and Japan share many of the same vulnerabilities—aging and shrinking populations, reliance on imported energy, and exposure to climate risks—which necessitate a collective response. Cooperation in these areas offers an opportunity to leverage complementary strengths and foster innovation that can benefit not just these two nations but also the global community.   However, successful cooperation will require a pragmatic and step-by-step approach. It is essential to focus on areas of mutual benefit, starting with niche strategies where collaboration can yield tangible results. For example, building a common market for hydrogen trading, sharing battery tracking systerns for recycling, and jointly investing in renewable energy projects such as offshore wind farms are practical and achievable starting points. These initiatives can serve as trust-building exercises, paving the way for broader and deeper partnerships.   Moreover, a step-by-step approach acknowledges the limitations of existing cooperation and works to mitigate them incrementally. Establishing pilot projects, such as joint green ODA in developing regions or collaborative research in carbon capture technologies, can provide valuable lessons and set the stage for larger-scale initiatives. This method not only reduces risks but also allows for adaptive policymaking based on real-world outcomes.   In parallel, both nations must embrace the concept of niche strategies to address the structural and political disparities that complicate their partnership. For example, while South Korea’s energy market remains centralized, Japan’s liberalized systern could be leveraged to create hybrid models that bridge these differences. Similarly, bilateral collaboration in cybersecurity and nuclear safety can bypass market constraints, focusing instead on shared vulnerabilities and goals.   Ultimately, the success of South Korea-Japan cooperation will depend on a shared vision for the future. By working toward a balanced and sustainable relationship, the two countries can not only overcome immediate challenges but also set a global example of how historical adversaries can transform their relationship into one of strategic partnership and mutual benefit. Through sustained efforts, South Korea and Japan can position themselves as leaders in the global energy transition, contributing to a greener, more resilient, and cooperative future. ■     References   Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). n.d-a. “Japan.” https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/japan/climate-data-historical.   _____. n.d.-b “South Korea.” https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/korea-rep/climate-data-historical.   Choi, In-su. 2024. “Indonesia’s Senoro granted 20-year license extension…KOGAS and Mitsubishi Move from Conflict to Cooperation (in Korean). Energy News. April 23. https://www.energy-news.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=202094.   International Energy Agency (IEA). 2021. “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy.” May. https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050.   Jang, Yong-seok. 2023. “Dohwa Engineering and Shizen Energy of Japan to Develop Renewable Energy (in Korean).” Global Economics. May 11. https://www.g-enews.com/article/Global-Biz/2023/05/2023051110403580736ed0c62d49_1.   Johnson, Chalmers. 1982. MITI and the Japanese Miracle: The Growth of Industrial Policy, 1925-1975. Stanford: Stanford University Press.   Lim, Eunjung. 2018. “Japan’s Energy Policy under Abe: Liberalization of the Energy Market and Nuclear U-turn.” Seoul Journal of Japanese Studies 4(1): 103-131.   Macrotrends. n.d. “Japan Fertility Rate 1950-2024.” https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/jpn/japan/fertility-rate.   Masuda, Hiroya. 2014. Local Extinction: The Rapid Population Decline Caused by Tokyo's Overconcentration (in Japanese). Tokyo: Chūō Kōron Shinsha.   Maxwell, Victor. 2023. High and Dry: The Global Energy Transition’s Looming Impact on the LNG and Oil Shipbuilding Industry. Berlin: Climate Analytics.   Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). 2021. Green Growth Strategy Through Achieving Carbon Neutrality in 2050. June 18. https://www.meti.go.jp/english/policy/energy_environment/global_warming/ggs2050/pdf/ggs_full_en1013.pdf.   Morse, Anne. 2024. “Population Trends across the Globe.” The U.S. Census Bureau. November 26. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2024/11/idb-population-trends.html.   PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). 2017. “The Long View: How Will the Global Economic Order Change by 2050?” in World in 2050. February. https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-summary-report-feb-2017.pdf.   Reuters. 2024. “Russia Restricts Enriched Uranium Exports to the United States.” November 16. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-restricts-enriched-uranium-exports-united-states-2024-11-15/.   Schemel, Stephanie et al. 2019. 2050 Scenarios: Four Plausible Futures. London: Arup.   Statista. 2024a. “Japan: Degree of Urbanization from 2013 to 2023.” July 4. https://www.statista.com/statistics/270086/urbanization-in-japan/.   _____. 2024b. “South Korea: Urbanization from 2013 to 2023.” November 22. https://www.statista.com/statistics/455905/urbanization-in-south-korea/.   Stretton, Chris. 2023. “EU Battery Passport Regulation Requirements.” Circularise. December 11. https://www.circularise.com/blogs/eu-battery-passport-regulation-requirements.   The Korea Times. 2024. “14 Troubled Public Firms to Slash $23.9 Bil. of Debt by 2026.” September 2. https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2024/12/129_381682.html.   U.S. Congress. 2024. “H.R.1042 - Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act.” https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/1042.   World Meteorological Organization (WMO). “2024 Is on Track to Be Hottest Year on Record as Warming Temporarily Hits 1.5°C.” (Nov. 11, 2024), https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/2024-track-be-hottest-year-record-warming-temporarily-hits-15degc.   World Nuclear Association (WNA). 2024. “Uranium Enrichment (Updated Nov. 19).” https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/conversion-enrichment-and-fabrication/uranium-enrichment.   _____. 2025. “Nuclear Power in China (Updated Jan. 14).” https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power.     [1] A “super-aged” society is a society with one in five people aged 65 or older, according to the UN’s criteria.   [2] In May 2014, the Japan Founding Conference and Subcommittee to Study the Problem of Population Decline, chaired by Masuda Hiroya, a Japanese construction bureaucrat who served as chief cabinet secretary in the first Shinzo Abe cabinet and the Fukuda Yasuo cabinet, published a list of 896 potentially vanishing cities, and in the same year, Masuda published a book entitled Local Extinction! The Plummeting Population Caused by Tokyo’s Unipolar Concentration (in Japanese) was published, sparking a public debate (Hiroya 2014).   [3] For a study of Japan’s energy market liberalization, see the following paper by the author. Eunjung Lim. 2018. “Japan’s Energy Policy under Abe: Liberalization of the Energy Market and Nuclear U-turn.” Seoul Journal of Japanese Studies 4(1): 103-131.   [4] For information on the enrichment capacities of major countries, refer to the following resource. World Nuclear Association (WNA). 2024. “Uranium Enrichment (Updated Nov. 19).” https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/conversion-enrichment-and-fabrication/uranium-enrichment (Accessed on Dec. 30, 2024).   [5] As of January 25, China had 58 nuclear reactors in operation and 29 under construction. In addition, more than 80 reactors are proposed for construction. WNA. 2025. “Nuclear Power in China (Updated Jan. 14).” https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/china-nuclear-power (Accessed on Feb. 12, 2025).     ■ Eunjung Lim is Professor at the Division of International Studies, Kongju National University.     ■ Typeset by Chaerin Kim, Research Assistant     For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | [email protected]  

Eunjung Lim 2025-04-01Views : 2607
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[Korea-Japan Joint Work on the World 2050] ⑧ Prospects of Cooperation between Japan and Korea toward Carbon Neutrality

I. Response to Global Energy Transition   The Japanese government revises its energy plan about every three years (ANRE-METI 2018). The plan is formulated based on the Basic Energy Policy Law enacted in 2002. FY2024 is the year to formulate new 7th plan. The latest 6th one, approved by the Cabinet in October 2021 (see Figure 1), set goals for Japan’s energy mix to 2030 and presented various scenarios to 2050. The plan outlined nuclear energy to remain a key national energy source, as it predicted that it would account for 20-22% of the country’s electricity generation up to 2030. In addition, hydrogen and ammonia, new forms of energy that have recently captured public attention, have been newly added and estimated to contribute 1% to Japan’s generated electricity by 2030 (ANRE-METI 2022).   [Figure 1] Japan’s Energy Outlook for Primary Energy Supply in 6th Basic Energy Plan (2021)   While Japan is 70% dependent on the fossil fuel in its primary energy supply, the recent trend of de-carbonization, led by the EU initiative accelerated in 2020, also promoted Japan’s declaration of “Net-Zero by 2050,” which it declared to follow up other countries. This movement has been a huge earthquake not only for energy policymakers in the government but for most industries who will suffer by such drastic change even though there will be 30 years from now.   The utilization of energy, especially solar power, is restricted in Japan geographically, and wind power will be dependent upon a sufficient level of security against typhoon seasons. Hydro has already been fully exploited. Nuclear energy is currently a hot topic of discussion, particularly regarding how to reduce its use given forecasts predicting another mega-earthquake within 30 years. A realistic and concrete approach to realizing the goal of Net-Zero is required, even though the use of fossil fuels will remain inevitable in the future. The solution will involve energy saving (though this has limited potential for Japan) and diversification of energy sources such as hydrogen (ammonia), carbon-neutral LNG (or possibly ‘green oil’), and CCS/CCUS (not only blue hydrogen and ammonia but also exporting CO₂ by pipeline and by ship), as well as forest sinks (controversial but not negligible) and the purchase of emission rights from abroad.   The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) of Japan has finally disclosed the draft of the new 7th Energy Basic Plan, including the outlook toward 2040 (METI 2024). It will undergo public comment in January before being approved by the government in February. The most noteworthy aspect of this draft is that it shows a shift toward maximum use of nuclear power generation. This is a major shift from the previous policy, which implied reducing Japan’s dependence on nuclear power as much as possible.   Regarding the 20% share of nuclear power generation in 2040 (see Figure 2), the important factor is not the share itself but the actual amount of power generated. The current plan’s target for 2030 sets a share of 20-22% of total power generation (0.93 to 0.94 TkWh, Figure 1). In that case, the amount of power generated by nuclear energy will be 180-200 billion kWh. However, this new draft indicates that nuclear power in 2040 will account for 20% of total power generation, equivalent to 220-240 billion kWh, indicating that nuclear power generation will increase by about 17-18% by 2040. This also indicates the possibility of not only restarting nuclear power plants but also constructing new nuclear power plants.   [Figure 2] Japan’s Newly drafted Energy Mix for 7th Basic Energy Plan (FY2024)   Korea is also now at a point where it needs to revise its Energy Basic Plan from the current 10th to the 11th. Both countries have been following a similar path since their energy situations are largely the same. While Japan’s outlook shows the primary energy mix as a base, Korea’s electricity mix shows trends that Japan is also moving toward, such as nuclear as the baseload, fossil fuels as the dominant energy source, and ambitious perspectives for hydrogen and ammonia as new energy sources (see Figure 3). Several sources say that the upcoming 11th Energy Basic Plan will outline Korea’s energy mix for 2036, and it is forecasted that LNG use in the electricity mix will further decline from the current 26.8% to 9.3%, quoting the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy’s statement: “Korea will rely more on nuclear power generation and renewables instead of fossil fuels and LNG. The balanced energy mix will advance the effective use of renewables to better achieve carbon neutrality (The Korea Times 2024).” This will be one of the controversial points and a key difference in the path that Japan and Korea take in the future.   [Figure 3] Korea’s Electricity Generation Mix Outlook by Source ※New & Renewables contains Fuel Cell. Others contains Heat Pump systern   The game has started to destroy and recreate the present structure and superiority in technology within a fossil fuel society. It seems that the EU’s prohibition of hybrid cars toward 2035 is the one of their strategies to change the market by excluding Japanese global companies such as Toyota and Honda, which have already had advanced and leading tech in those areas.   While hydrogen now becoming a star symbol of clean, future energy, we should also note that new forms of energy, such as green hydrogen, are not primary energy. They are primarily by-products that utilize other energy sources for production, which increases their price in comparison to primary energy sources. They are additionally still unreliable sources of energy in the contexts of security, supply volume, versatility, calorie by unit, and most importantly, economics (which includes problems of production, transportation, and stockpiling, which unanimously turn out to be highly expensive). If we choose to go for using hydrogen, we will lose our money as far as becoming a buyer. We should think it over how we can be a seller of hydrogen (upstream stakes) and its tech (for production and transportation).   There is always a possibility of the emergence of several factors that may put this global de-carbonization trend to an end or make it be forgotten, as we have already experienced in Kyoto-Protocol (agreed in 1997 and effective in 2005). The several factors can be: 1) If global cooling starts, 2) If Covid-19 is stamped out or there is a global acceptance of coexisting with the virus, 3) If world cannot be united in Net-Zero and each country recognizes unfairness on spending huge budget on realizing ‘Net-Zero’ without seeing and feeling climate improvements.   [Figure 4] Year 2020, the First Year of Carbon Neutrality   The COP26 summit was a significant event as it became a symbol of global commitment to decarbonization. On the other hand, it might also have marked the peak of excitement, as we did not see many other countries setting new carbon neutrality (CN) targets after the event, except Oman (October 2022). At this moment, over 80% of countries have set CN goals between 2045 and 2070. The remaining 20%, from Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Middle Eastern countries, are still considering whether to join this very expensive millennium game. While 20% is a minority at this moment, the global population projection by the UN shows an increase from 8 billion to 10 billion by 2058, and this increase of 2 billion will mainly come from these 20% of countries.   The decarbonization flagship, the EU’s energy balance, will faithfully reflect the removal of fossil fuels and an increase in carbon-free sources instead. Through the transition, there will be difficulties to face, such as how long to rely on nuclear energy, the procurement of natural gas as a transition energy source and as a hydrogen source, disparities among EU member countries, and now unprecedented soaring energy prices following the Ukraine crisis. In Asia, on the contrary, not all countries are heading in the same direction for decarbonization, even though some countries have set goals for CN. In addition to the shift toward natural gas, cheap coal would continue to play a staple and important role in the energy mix for some large energy-consuming countries.   Russia was considered to keep the same importance for Japanese energy security as it does now for fossil fuels because new energy sources such as hydrogen (ammonia) are expected to be produced mainly from natural gas, as is done now. For Russia, the present decarbonization trend is not a threat at all. They believe that the global market will change, but some countries will still prefer cheaper fossil fuels, while others must buy expensive hydrogen from Russia. This represents new business opportunities for them.   In addition, Japan’s desired solutions, as written above, include not only hydrogen (ammonia) but also carbon-neutral LNG (or possibly ‘green oil’) and CCS/CCUS (not only blue hydrogen and ammonia but also CO2 export via pipeline and ship). These are dependent upon Russia’s potential. In other words, Russia is the only country that can provide such sources and solutions to Japan.   Moreover, Russia has started announcing and advertising its ability of the forest absorption of CO2 emissions (1.5billion CO2t emissions against 2.5 billion CO2t absorption by annum) (Presidential Office of the Russian Federation 2021). While there are discussions if it is true or not, it is obvious that Russia has huge potential to support Japan’s Net-Zero by 2050.   II. Toward the Future Beyond Ukraine Crisis   Japan is poor in energy resources and relies on imports from overseas for most of it. Ensuring energy security is the utmost importance to protect the living standards of the people, prevent economic activities from stagnation, and prepare for unforeseen contingencies. Diversification of supply sources (countries) and supply routes plays major efficient roles in strengthening energy security.   Over the past 30 years, especially after the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia had been recognized as a major oil and gas-producing country closest to Japan and as one of the most important countries with projects in which the Japanese government and Japanese companies participate as stakeholders in upstream operations. In addition, the Northern Sea Route, which has been utilized commercially year by year due to climate change, enables Japan to connect with the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic is the last resort of hydrocarbon potential on Earth, with abundant natural gas reserves that emit less CO2 compared with coal and oil and are expected to become the transition energy toward realizing a Net-Zero world. Also, natural gas is expected to serve as a future supply source of hydrogen. The Northern Sea Route has also been attracting attention as a new supply route that does not cross chokepoints or areas with high risks of disputes. Under these circumstances, Japan-Russia energy cooperation has been gradually deepening through upstream projects from Sakhalin in the 1990s, to East Siberia in the 2000s, and to the Arctic in the 2010s.   However, Russia’s invasion against Ukraine forced Japan to reconsider its strategy with Russia. As a member of the international community, Japan quickly aligned itself with the Western countries, and sanctions have expanded to the import ban of Russian oil, the core of Russia’s financial revenue just in three months after the invasion. While Japan still understands the importance of Russia in terms of energy security, showing a resolute stance to the world against Russia’s reckless act of ignoring international law is essential to protecting Japan’s national interests in the international community and much more important than the energy strategy with Russia, at least at this moment.   We must also pay attention to the fact that Russia, as a major oil and gas producing country, has now begun to take advantage of its impact on the oil and gas market in response to Western sanctions strategically. Until 2022, Russia was ‘the reliable energy supplier’ to Europe for more than half a century. Even during the Cold War and the turmoil of the Soviet collapse, the flow of Russian oil and gas never stopped. But now, Russia seems to have decided to abandon such precious trust and its status built over years by breaking existing contracts, actively creating turmoil in the oil and gas market, and driving up prices by controlling gas export volumes.   [Figure 5] Russia’s Tree Biggest Potentials for Realizing Decarbonization   Under these new circumstances, there are several points that we should pay attention to in relations with Russia to re-evaluate and review its energy strategy and security.   First of all, we must understand the crucial change; Russia is no longer what it used to be. This means that Russia has ceased to be a reliable partner that emphasizes economic relations and adheres to international commercial practices, which was the tacit premise for deepening Japan-Russia cooperative relations. Forced ruble payments to Europe for violating existing contracts (March 2022), suspension of Nord Stream supply (June-August 2022), and mandatory transfer of the stakes and rights of each Sakhalin 1 and 2 project to Russian entity (June-August 2022) have decisively discredited Russia. Second, it is inevitable that Russia’s energy income will shrink as a result of Europe’s accelerated leave from Russia in the long term. Russia has already been forced to provide cheap energy to the Chinese market: oil from 2010 and gas from 2019. And it will be accelerated by its losing of the European market now. Power of Siberia 2 would be the coming symbol of Russia-Sino energy cooperation, but this pipeline can be realized only by Russia’s discount of gas price for China, as it was done in Power of Siberia, which was agreed in 2014 (started operation in 2019). This trend will most probably not be short-term and likely be prolonged in conjunction with the situation of Ukraine Crisis and its post-war process. In other words, it is expected that Russia will no longer be a major power that enjoyed economic revival by the soaring crude oil prices in the early 21st century. Its energy income that was the driving force for the economy will be cut off over the long term, weakening power of the state.   [Figure 6] Ongoing Negotiation on Power of Siberia (POS)   With those perspectives, it is necessary to consider how the bilateral and trilateral relationship with Russia will change and whether it can be rebuilt from a long-term period. What kind of changes in the balance of power will a weakening Russia bring about in Northeast Asia? What opportunities does Japan and Korea can maximize its national interests amid changes with weakening Russia?   Both Japan and Korea have declared to achieve the Carbon Neutrality toward 2050. There is an urgent need to secure natural gas supply as the transition energy for coal and oil, moreover as the source of hydrogen as a new energy. Also, CCUS has potential, along with the utilization of forest sinks. Russia has the world’s largest assets in those areas, and their importance for the rest of the world will increase in the next decades. We must consider how Japan and Korea can utilize these assets owned by Russia while its national power weakens in long term.   III. How to Be on the Winning Team in the Decarbonization Game: Potential Cooperations between Japan and Korea   1. Decarbonization Technology Innovation   The winners and losers in this game are clear, and it is directly linked to whether or not energy security can be strengthened. In other words, the winners are those who sell low-carbon energy and technology for production and manufacturing, which are the core of realizing decarbonization, and those who are on the buying side will be losers.   In this grand game, Japan and Korea, as major energy consumers without abundant indigenous resources, are in a position of the buying side. On the other hand, both countries hold the key for the development of decarbonization technologies that both countries’ high-tech companies already have. Japan, followed by Korea and Germany, has the highest GX-related patent score. In this field, Japan and Korea have already taken a pole position for the race.   Furthermore, technological innovation might significantly redraw the current map of energy between producing and consuming countries. Combination of electricity from renewable energies with Direct Air Capture (DAC) technology may even trigger the possibility for Japan and Korea to become fuel producing (manufacturing) countries. At present, it is not competitive with conventional fuels derived from fossil fuels, and it cannot be a business unless it relies on government subsidies and carbon credits. However, if the cost of electricity from renewable energy sources and DAC technology decreases gradually by incessant efforts and innovations, both countries may emerge as new fuel and oil producing countries.   2. Promotion of Continuous Investment for Upstream, Especially LNG   It is natural that the path towards decarbonization differs from country to country, and the greatest concern is that the time-bound goal of achieving decarbonization will take precedence, with emphasis placed solely on meeting that deadline. Continued upstream investment for the world energy demand including fossil fuels for transition is essential to meet the sufficient supply of energy that humanity still needs, and we must not forget that current divestment will manifest itself in the form of tight supply and demand due to reduced production and the associated rise in market prices over the medium to long term from now on.   3. Coalition for LNG Emission Abatement toward Net-zero (CLAEN)   Methane, one of the greenhouse gases (GHG), is a major component of LNG and 28 times higher greenhouse effect than CO2. It is emitted from the value chain including the production process of LNG. Accelerating methane mitigation is a critical global challenge. In order to reduce methane emissions, the Coalition for LNG Emission Abatement toward Net-zero (CLEAN) was announced in LNG PCC 2023. It is an initiative launched by JERA, KOGAS and JOGMEC. CLEAN stresses the importance of enhancing transparency for methane emissions associated with the LNG value chain and sharing best practices. It aims to make the LNG value chain cleaner by allowing major LNG buyers in Japan and Korea to talk to LNG producers regarding reducing methane emissions. It is expected that this framework will be extended to involve other private companies in the future all over the world.   4. Creating and Nurturing Markets for H2 from LNG Practice   Japan and Korea also have long experience and knowledge in LNG market development history. Best practices in LNG industry such as upstream, middle-stream, downstream, SPA contracts, and establishment of new market with accountability and transparency will be required in the beginning of merging H2 and Ammonia market. Taking the initiative and contributions through rules making in this field by Japan and Korea might benefit both countries’ energy security. ■   References   Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE-METI). 2018. “Strategic Energy Plan (in Japanese).” July 3. https://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/category/others/basic_plan/past.html.   ANRE-METI. 2022. “Here’s more about the 6th Strategic Energy Plan Efforts to overcome ‘grid constraints’ toward expanding the introduction of renewable energy.” April 28. https://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/en/category/special/article/detail_174.html.   Presidential Office of Russian Federation. 2021. “Leaders Summit on Climate.” April 22. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65425.   Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). 2024. “The 67th meeting of the General Resources and Energy Investigation Council, Basic Policy Subcommittee (In Japanese).” December 17. https://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/committee/council/basic_policy_subcommittee/2024/067/.   The Korea Times. 2024. “Korea to Increase the Proportion of Nuclear Power.” October 10. https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2023/01/419_343496.html#:~:text=Korea%20will%20increase%20the%20proportion%20of%20nuclear%20power,to%20below%2015%20percent%20and%2010%20percent%2C%20respectively.     ■ Daisuke Harada is Project Director of the Research and Analysis Department at the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC).     ■ Typeset by Chaerin Kim, Research Assistant     For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | [email protected]  

Daisuke Harada 2025-04-01Views : 2547
Working paper
[Korea-Japan Joint Work on World 2050] ④ Shaping the Future: Strategic Economic Governance and Collaboration for Japan-South Korea Partnership towards 2050

I. Introduction: The Issue   The Indo-Pacific is surrounded by complex geography. In such an environment, changes in security threats shape the unique views of actors’ perceptions in diverse manners. Though the distribution of power has changed to date and will constantly change toward 2050, one of the unchanging factors would be geography.   ... [TRUNCATED FOR BREVITY IN THIS INTERFACE] ...   V. Conclusion   Security cooperation between Japan and South Korea has suffered not only from political and diplomatic distrust but also from inherent divergences of geostrategic interests. But this does not mean that the two countries will never benefit from security alignments when the approach is cautiously crafted. This paper highlighted this dual aspect by designing the “Foundational Cooperation” construct. The inaction has been the luxury of the relatively moderate security environment in this region after the Second World War, especially for Japan. The recent trends show that this moderate environment ceased to exist, necessitating immediate actions for both countries.   I. Introduction Japan and South Korea are geographically close yet politically distant states, whose complex and often strained relations have posed challenges to fostering bilateral political and economic cooperation. Despite their shared democratic values, economic interdependence, and strategic importance in the Asia-Pacific region, historical grievances and geopolitical tensions have often impeded the development of a truly collaborative partnership. However, the potential benefits of strengthened bilateral economic cooperation extend far beyond their borders, offering significant promise for the stability and growth of the Indo-Pacific as a whole. As two of Asia’s largest and most technologically advanced economies, Japan and South Korea are uniquely positioned to lead regional efforts in promoting economic resilience and good governance. Together, they could serve as a model for other nations, demonstrating how pragmatic collaboration can overcome historical challenges and effectively address pressing global issues such as currency volatility, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical uncertainties.   This partnership is not merely a bilateral necessity but a regional and global opportunity to establish a framework for sustainable growth, innovation, and stability. In an era marked by rising economic nationalism, fractured global institutions, and intensifying geopolitical rivalries between China and the US, it is imperative for Japan and South Korea to forge a robust future-oriented partnership to safeguard regional stability and ensure mutual prosperity. Recognising these challenges, this paper explores how the two nations can navigate the political and economic uncertainties of the mid-21st century and positions their collaboration as a cornerstone of regional governance.   This paper proposes three strategic initiatives to advance bilateral economic cooperation and prepare both nations for a rapidly evolving global landscape: 1) Establishment of a high-level economic “3+3” dialogue involving ministers of foreign affairs, trade/economy, and finance, designed to institutionalise collaboration and tackle complex economic and geopolitical challenges; 2) Japan’s support for South Korea’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which would enhance South Korea’s economic resilience, strengthen trade governance in the region, and diversify trade dependencies; and 3) Promoting private-sector collaboration with government support, focusing on semiconductors to enhance innovation and supply chain resilience. Each of these proposals is designed to make the partnership sustainable over the long term, with an emphasis on institutionalisation to ensure continuity despite potential changes in government. By implementing these measures, Japan and South Korea can not only ensure their economic survival but also solidify their leading role in regional governance and global stability towards 2050.   II. Establishment of High-level Economic “3+3” Dialogue Predicting the geopolitical and economic challenges of 2050 is inherently difficult, but one shortcoming in the current Japan-South Korea relationship is the lack of a regular high-level framework for jointly addressing common interests and challenges. To fill this gap, this paper proposes the establishment of a robust and innovative “3+3” ministerial dialogue involving the foreign affairs, trade/economy, and finance ministers. This mechanism would serve as an essential platform for tackling pressing bilateral and regional issues as the two nations move towards 2050. A key advantage of this framework is its ability to function independently of political changes. Japan-Korea relations have tended to be vulnerable to changes in government and public sentiment, which have often disrupted cooperation. An institutionalised mechanism, with regular meetings and pre-determined agendas, would provide stability and continuity, ensuring consistent engagement despite political dynamics. This long-term vision is crucial for fostering deeper bilateral ties and addressing complex economic challenges.   Although the existing ministerial dialogues between Japan and South Korea, as well as globally, tend to focus on diplomatic and defence issues, recent years have seen an increase in economic “2+2” dialogues. These frameworks, which reflect the blurring of the economic and political spheres, have become increasingly important on the international stage, and this trend may continue towards 2050. In particular, Japan has established its first economic “2+2” ministerial dialogue with the United States in 2022 (Ministry of Foreign Affairs Japan 2022), followed by a similar initiative with the United Kingdom in 2025, both involving foreign affairs and trade ministers (The Japan Times 2024). This paper argues that the conventional economic “2+2” framework can be expanded to include finance ministers, creating a first-of-its-kind “3+3” dialogue.   This approach can address common macroeconomic vulnerabilities and promote resilience to global economic fluctuations and regional instabilities, such as the volatility of the South Korean won, as witnessed in the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis, underscoring the importance of involving finance ministries in discussions on exchange rate stabilisation, financial safety nets, and coordinated monetary policies. Looking ahead to 2050, a “3+3” dialogue offers a forward-looking solution to the multifaceted economic and geopolitical challenges that Japan and South Korea face. By involving finance ministers alongside foreign affairs and trade officials, this mechanism can holistically address issues ranging from trade sanctions to supply chain alert notification.   Financial policies are intrinsically tied to trade competitiveness and broader geopolitical stability, as they influence the economic environment in which nations operate and interact. For example, currency stabilization is critical for maintaining predictable trade dynamics. When a country’s currency fluctuates significantly, it creates uncertainty for exporters and importers, potentially discouraging international trade. This is particularly evident in South Korea’s experience with the volatility of the Korean won during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, which disrupted trade flows and investor confidence. Stable exchange rates not only support predictable prices for goods and services, but also encourage long-term trade agreements, making them an essential tool for enhancing trade competitiveness.   Another case is geopolitical risks, such as the intensifying competition between the US and China, which require equally integrated and synchronised responses. Finance ministers alone cannot address the multiple effects of such rivalries. For example, financial sanctions against Chinese companies involved in sensitive industries such as telecommunications or artificial intelligence need to be coordinated with broader trade policies to ensure a coherent national strategy. A fragmented approach—where financial sanctions undermine trade objectives or diplomatic outreach—can weaken a country’s overall position.   Consider the semiconductor supply chain. The US has imposed export controls on advanced semiconductor technologies to limit China’s access. For Japan and South Korea, aligning with these measures requires coordination across finance (e.g., funding R&D to develop domestic alternatives), trade (e.g., ensuring access to global markets for non-restricted technologies), and diplomacy (e.g., maintaining alliances to secure critical rare earth materials). A lack of synchronisation could expose vulnerabilities, such as retaliation from China or disruption of key supply chains. A traditional and siloed meeting of finance ministers may miss broader implications for trade agreements or diplomatic alliances.   The Ministry of Finance, which is responsible for tax collection and budget allocation, wields enormous power in the Japanese bureaucracy, and its peculiar nature extends to the international arena, where currency diplomacy and international monetary cooperation rarely involve other ministries and agencies and tend to be conducted independently. Therefore, it is uncertain how cooperative the “3+3” framework will be in practice, but as economic power increasingly defines international relations, the involvement of the government agencies that control money will become more important to effectively exert influence in international affairs. Recognizing this trend, Japan and Korea should actively work to establish its “3+3” dialogue as a precedent for other bilateral and regional cooperation by promoting proactive and strategic alignment. This framework would empower both nations to navigate uncertainties, harmonize financial strategies with trade and foreign policy goals, and build a resilient partnership capable of thriving in 2050.   III. Strategic Importance of Korea’s CPTPP Membership and Japan’s Support Given that Japan and South Korea are highly trade-oriented economies, ensuring stability in regional and global trade governance is critical to their sustained growth and influence. The CPTPP holds immense promise as a cornerstone of trade governance through 2050, particularly in light of the ongoing dysfunction of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The WTO’s inability to address critical trade issues, evident in the stalled Doha Round negotiations and the collapse of its dispute settlement mechanism following the United States’ refusal to appoint new Appellate Body judges, has left a significant void in rulemaking for essential areas such as digital trade, intellectual property rights, and environmental standards (Congressional Research Services 2021). In this context, the CPTPP has emerged as a robust and dynamic framework capable of filling the governance gaps left by the WTO’s dysfunction. Unlike the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which has struggled with limited liberalisation commitments and weak enforcement mechanisms despite covering 15 countries, the CPTPP offers a high-standard rule-making framework. Its provisions on intellectual property, e-commerce, labour rights, and environmental sustainability make it uniquely positioned to set the rules of 21st-century trade and investment. Additionally, the CPTPP operates with a smaller, more cohesive membership compared to the WTO’s 164 members, allowing it to respond more quickly to emerging challenges and opportunities while promoting a reliable, rules-based systern.   South Korea’s accession to the CPTPP would be a significant milestone for both the CPTPP and South Korea. With a $1.7 trillion economy, South Korea’s inclusion would increase the CPTPP’s economic clout, raising its share of global GDP from approximately 15% to an estimated 20%. The addition of South Korea’s advanced industries, such as semiconductors, electronics, and green technology, would strengthen the bloc’s capacity for integration and innovation. Furthermore, South Korea’s extensive trade networks, spanning major economies such as the US, EU, and China, would create new trade opportunities and improve connectivity between CPTPP members and external markets (Lee 2024).   The economic benefits of South Korea’s participation go beyond GDP growth. Participation could increase intra-CPTPP trade by an estimated $20–30 billion annually, driven by improved market access and diversification opportunities, particularly in Latin America (e.g., Mexico and Peru). For South Korea, the CPTPP provides a strategic platform to reduce its dependence on China, which accounts for more than 25% of its exports. This dependence has become increasingly volatile due to China’s willingness to use trade, investment and tourism as tools of political influence (Terada 2019a). By joining the CPTPP, South Korea could diversify its trade partnerships, increasing economic resilience while gaining preferential access to key markets in East Asia and beyond.   The expansion of CPTPP membership further underscores its growing importance. The UK’s accession in December 2024 demonstrated the CPTPP’s ability to attract like-minded economies, with other potential members such as Costa Rica and Indonesia showing interest (Politico 2024). The inclusion of South Korea, which could account for more than 20% of global trade, would continue this momentum and position the CPTPP as a magnet for high-standard trade agreements. By promoting economic integration, the expanded CPTPP could act as a counterweight to rising protectionism and fragmented global trade.   As the largest economy in the CPTPP, Japan wields significant influence within the CPTPP and is uniquely positioned to facilitate South Korea’s accession. Japan’s leadership in concluding the CPTPP negotiations in 2017, following the US withdrawal, demonstrates its commitment to advancing high-standard trade frameworks (Terada 2019b). Advocating for South Korea’s accession would not only strengthen bilateral ties between the two nations, but also demonstrate a shared commitment to regional stability and cooperation. Together, Japan and South Korea could align their economic and geopolitical objectives within the CPTPP and advance shared priorities such as digital trade, sustainability and innovation.   China has already applied to join the CPTPP. It will therefore insist on starting bilateral negotiations for participation before South Korea. To do so, however, China will have to comply with the existing rules of the CPTPP, such as banning forced labour and child labour and ensuring a tariff elimination rate of 90% or more. Another important condition would be to refrain from economic coercion, such as raising its tariffs for political purposes, as Japan and Australia have consistently insisted. If these conditions, based on the fundamental principles of free trade, are fully met, not only would China not be seen as a threat to the economic security of many countries, but China’s accession to the CPTPP would also be desirable for existing members and could serve as an important benchmark for the formation of a free and open Indo-Pacific economic order (Terada 2020).   Looking ahead to 2050, the CPTPP is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the global trade landscape. Its dynamic membership, enforceable high standards and adaptability make it a critical instrument for countering protectionism and navigating geopolitical uncertainties. For South Korea, joining the CPTPP would solidify its position as a leader in trade governance, while for Japan, facilitating the inclusion of its neighbour would reinforce its leadership within the CPTPP. By working together, the two nations can transform the CPTPP into a model for regional integration and global cooperation, paving the way for a resilient and inclusive trading order in an increasingly fragmented world.   IV. Private-Sector Collaboration with Government Support   The rapidly evolving business and production landscape necessitates closer cooperation between Japan and South Korea to maintain their global competitiveness. Establishing a government-led framework to provide financial support and facilitate institutional matchmaking between Japanese and Korean companies is essential. Such a framework could foster structured joint ventures, particularly in strategic sectors like semiconductors, where both nations are global leaders. The semiconductor industry, a cornerstone of economic security, faces significant vulnerabilities due to geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic protectionism. Collaborative efforts between Japan and South Korea can address these challenges by leveraging their unique strengths. Japan excels in semiconductor materials and manufacturing equipment, while South Korea leads in semiconductor production, particularly in memory chips. By integrating these capabilities, both nations can forge strategic partnerships that enhance their competitive edge in an increasingly complex technological landscape. For instance, Samsung Electronics’ establishment of a research base for next-generation semiconductor packaging technology in Yokohama in 2024, supported by a ¥40 billion subsidy from the Japanese government, underscores the potential of public-private partnerships. Expanding such initiatives within a structured framework could amplify the benefits of Japan-Korea collaboration, ensuring mutual gains while strengthening the resilience of the semiconductor supply chain.   As the semiconductor industry evolves, the focus is shifting from miniaturization—now approaching its technological limits—to integrating semiconductors to enhance performance. This transition necessitates standardized circuit layouts and design methodologies, areas in which Japan and South Korea are well positioned to lead. Joint R&D initiatives could drive these standardization efforts, simplifying design processes and accelerating development cycles. For example, collaborating on unified design software and methodologies could establish de facto industry standards, reducing production costs and increasing global competitiveness.   A government-led framework provides a stable, long-term platform for business cooperation, ensuring resilience against political fluctuations and market volatility. Institutional mechanisms such as regular business matchmaking forums, coordinated funding initiatives, and policy support could foster sustainable partnerships between Japanese and Korean companies. For example, Samsung and Tokyo Electron could collaborate on next-generation semiconductor manufacturing technologies, while Panasonic and SK Hynix could strengthen ties in battery and storage innovation. These partnerships would not only fortify the supply chain but also diversify it, reducing dependence on single-source suppliers.   Establishing common design methodologies would simplify semiconductor integration while enhancing supply chain diversification. This aligns with the global push for supply chain rebalancing under the “friend-shoring” approach, enabling both nations to navigate economic security uncertainties effectively. By institutionalizing collaboration, Japan and South Korea can mitigate risks and maintain leadership in the semiconductor industry. In fact, SK Hynix and Toshiba have previously collaborated on NAND flash memory technology (SK Hynix News 2014). Expanding such joint R&D initiatives under a government-supported program could accelerate advancements in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and green energy, where semiconductor innovation is critical.   The recent upsurge in industrial policy in global semiconductor manufacturing can also support government-to-government cooperation between Japan and South Korea. Japan’s proactive government commitment, or industrial policy, further underscores the importance of strategic cooperation. For example, the Japanese government has pledged more than ¥476 billion ($3.5 billion) in subsidies since 2024 to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which has an advanced chip manufacturing facility in Kumamoto Prefecture. This facility, which specialises in chips for automotive and industrial applications, fills gaps in Japan’s domestic supply chain while integrating leading Japanese companies such as Sony Semiconductor Solutions and Denso Corporation (TSMC News 2024). Another example is Rapidus, a newly established advanced logic foundry primarily funded by the Japanese government, which leverages IBM’s extensive semiconductor research and design expertise. This partnership includes collaboration at the Albany NanoTech Complex in New York, where Rapidus scientists and engineers are working with IBM researchers to develop leading-edge technologies such as the 2-nanometre node, which promises significant improvements in performance and power efficiency (Dijitimes Asia 2025). Extending similar initiatives to South Korean companies would further strengthen supply chain security and foster regional collaboration to increase mutual benefits.   The global semiconductor market is projected to reach $602 billion by 2033, highlighting the need for innovation and resilience. Enhanced Japan-Korea collaboration in this critical sector would not only bolster their competitiveness but also contribute to the sustainability of the global semiconductor supply chain. By establishing a model for regional cooperation, the two nations can secure their positions as industry leaders while navigating the challenges of an increasingly dynamic global market.   V. Conclusion   Few would disagree that regional and global challenges can be more effectively addressed if Japan and South Korea, two of Asia’s most advanced economies, forge a stronger and more collaborative partnership. As global economic powerhouses with shared democratic values, they are uniquely positioned to lead by example in promoting stability and growth in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond. A unified approach would not only increase their influence but also provide the stability required to address pressing issues such as climate change, supply chain disruptions, and the intensifying geopolitical competition between major powers.   Their partnership has the potential to become a model for regional and global cooperation. By institutionalizing mechanisms for collaboration, such as the proposed “3+3” ministerial dialogue, joint participation in the CPTPP, a high-standard trade agreement, and government-backed frameworks for private-sector innovation, Japan and South Korea can create sustainable solutions that resonate beyond their borders. These initiatives would demonstrate the power of pragmatic cooperation, showing how even nations with complex histories can work together to address common challenges and seize shared opportunities and inspiring other nations to choose cooperation over conflict.   Looking ahead to 2050, the stakes could not be higher. The choices Japan and South Korea make today, if made together, will shape not only their bilateral relationship, but also the future trajectory of the Indo-Pacific region and its role in global affairs. By embracing their shared responsibilities and leveraging their complementary strengths, Japan and South Korea can emerge as co-leaders of a more integrated, stable, and prosperous world, with the shared intention of transforming historic challenges into the foundation of an enduring partnership, paving the way for regional stability and global progress, and demonstrating the capacity of trust and cooperation to achieve far more together than alone. ■   References Congressional Research Services (CRS). 2021. The World Trade Organization’s (WTO’s) Appellate Body: Key Disputes and Controversies. CRS Report, July 22. Dijitimes Asia. 2025. “Rapidus Tackles Three Major Challenges; Initial Production Yield Target Set at 50%.” January 14. Lee, Sohyun Zoe. 2024. “Presidential Agenda Setting and Foreign Economic Policy: Explaining South Korea’s Delayed Application to the CPTPP.” Asian Affairs 55, 2: 263-288. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan. 2022. “Japan-U.S. Economic Policy Consultative Committee Meeting (the Economic ‘2+2’).” July 29. Politico. 2024. “Britain’s Bold New World: As a Pacific Trading Nation.” Politico, December 16. SK Hynix News. 2014. “SK Hynix and Toshiba Forge Extended Collaboration.” December 19. Terada, Takashi. 2019a. “Japan and Northeast Asian Regionalism: Overcoming Political Animosity for Economic Integration.” In Japan and Asia’s Contested Order: The Interplay of Security, Economics, and Identity, ed. Yul Sohn and T.J. Pempel, 279–301. Springer. Terada, Takashi. 2019b. “Japan and TPP/TPP-11: Opening Black Box of Domestic Political Alignment for Proactive Economic Diplomacy in Face of ‘Trump Shock.’” The Pacific Review 32, 6: 1041–1069. Terada, Takashi. 2020. “Australia and Japan’s Alliance Can Beat China’s Interdependence Trap.” The Japan Times, February 20. The Japan Times. 2024. “Japan to Hold Regular Economic Security Talks with U.K. under Two-Plus-Two Model.” November 19. TSMC News. 2024. “JASM Set to Expand in Kumamoto, Japan.” February 6.

Takashi Terada 2025-04-01Views : 6003
Working paper
[Korea-Japan Joint Work on the World 2050] ③ Adjusting Net Imbalances of Benefits in Complex Geopolitics: Foundational Security Cooperation between Japan and South Korea

I. Introduction: The Issue   The Indo-Pacific is surrounded by complex geography. In such an environment, changes in security threats shape the unique views of actors’ perceptions in diverse manners. Though the distribution of power has changed to date and will constantly change toward 2050, one of the unchanging factors would be geography.   On the one hand, South Korea is concerned about security dynamics deriving from the Eurasian land mass. Needless to say, the most prominent threat is the closest North Korea, but the impacts of China and Russia always indirectly affect South Korea through the North. Japan, on the other hand, separated from the continent, had been less threatened by continental military buildup in the land domain. However, as China’s maritime expansion conflicts with Japan’s territorial control and maritime claims in the East China Sea, and as China’s ambition toward Taiwan and the South China Sea becomes evident, it has been driven by a strong sense to prepare for contingencies. Alliances with the United States have been consequential for both countries, but they work differently for their respective security. These are the reasons why the two closest states have not engaged in strong security cooperation so far even if putting aside the effect of their domestic political and diplomatic issues.   The central question in this regard would be whether both countries will be better off by keeping this separation toward 2050 in anticipation of the possible decline of US relative power. Existing literature on alliance politics does not seem to adequately answer this question because structural realism underpinning this literature presupposes alignment interactions between unitary actors whose power varies (Waltz 2010).   As a result, while various explanations came out to explain the dynamics behind the absence and emergence of alignments between US allies in the Indo-Pacific, none of these explicitly incorporate geographical factors into their models because this breaks the ground rule of structural realism that states are unitary actors, and its game-theoretic model of alliance politics may not be applicable to diverse cases (Cha 2000; 2010).   While this does not generate a big issue when assessing alliance politics in continental areas in Europe and the Middle East where most of the states involved are close to each other with land borders (Waltz 1994; Schweller 1998; Walt 1990), the problem looms large in cases where there are diverse combinations of land and sea powers. In the Indo-Pacific, no single security threat has symmetrical impacts on regional powers including Japan and South Korea. Accordingly, it would be misguided that the simple fact that China’s threat is growing, North Korea is developing advanced weapons, or the US power is declining in the Western Pacific does not automatically trigger a stronger security alignment between Japan and South Korea. Oversimplified optimism or deterministic pessimism as to security cooperation between the two could usually be inferred from existing theories.   However, while cautioning on these two extremes, both countries could explore a reasonable approach to cooperation amid geopolitical reality. As such an alternative, this paper proposes the “Foundational Cooperation” approach which is flexibly applicable to any security requirements of both countries despite divergences in interest. In doing so, this approach is expected to comprehensively mitigate the net imbalances of benefits in bilateral cooperation. Through this cautious approach, this paper shows that constructing a framework for bilateral security cooperation is still possible even though developing bilateral cooperation against a common threat is difficult.   II. Alliance Politics in Diverse Geography   Conventional studies concerning the lack of alliances or alignments between US allies in the region attribute its cause to either the US role or its intention. According to Victor Cha, on the one hand, the United States has tried to minimize its allies’ collective influence over its foreign policy by keeping separate bilateral alliances (Cha 2010). On the other hand, Cha also argues in another work that the US’s strong security commitments to Japan and South Korea in addition to asymmetrical fears of abandonment and entrapment between them have made it harder for both countries to cooperate with each other (Cha 2000). Yasuhiro Izumikawa joins the latter argument by adding that it was US allies that had advocated keeping separate bilateral ties with the United States by cautiously calculating the costs and benefits of having another (other) security tie(s) among them (Izumikawa 2020).   When applying this body of literature to the current situation, while the Joseph Biden administration’s initiative is facilitating trilateral security cooperation, its stronger US security commitments to both countries may have the effect of decreasing marginal values of bilateral cooperation between Japan and South Korea. Still, if US protégés are concerned about its security commitments to themselves or their capabilities to sustain such commitments in the long run, they may cautiously hedge against the uncertain future by increasing bilateral cooperation between them.   In fact, Japan’s 2022 National Security Strategy posits that “it is becoming increasingly difficult for the United States […] to manage risks in the international community and to maintain and develop a free and open international order (The Japanese Cabinet 2022).”   But because this sense of uncertainty is not acute at present, the urgency of the effort of the two countries would not be strong even though their surrounding security environment deteriorates. Divergent security interests of the two parties deriving from different geographical environments surrounding them would further serve as an obstacle to cooperation.   For South Korea, the primary threat is North Korea because of its geographical proximity. It is uncertain that North Korea can survive until 2050, but either its sudden and unpeaceful collapse or more aggressive military actions would have a serious impact on South Korea’s security. North Korea’s military posture leaned toward preemption because of its conventional inferiority and the lack of invulnerable second-strike nuclear capability. This is driving South Korea to build up conventional military capabilities focusing on preemption to prevent and neutralize North Korea’s nuclear first strikes. By contrast, while it is adjacent to China, South Korea is less threatened by China than Japan and other regional powers including Taiwan which are under the pressure of its maritime expansion. South Korea’s security would also be affected by the possible Taiwan contingency as a result of the direct confrontation between China and the United States and the disruption of its sea lines of communication (SLOCs). However, this concern has not culminated in the defense posture to deter China. Rather, its response to China’s maritime expansion seems to be what international relations literature calls “distancing” from its main targets like Taiwan (Schweller 1994).   This is why South Korea’s 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy referred to “the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait” while simultaneously naming China as “a key partner for achieving prosperity and peace in the Indo-Pacific (ROK Government 2022).” This ambivalent attitude is understandable when considering the geography surrounding the Korean Peninsula. Because China is a treaty ally of North Korea, and it can project its ground power through the North, South Korea has every reason to fear China’s aggressive response against South Korea’s support of Taiwan. Therefore, as long as North Korea exists, there will be a geopolitical structure in which South Korea cannot be too hardliner against China in the Taiwan contingency.   For Japan, on the contrary, the primary threat is China. Chinese maritime expansion has forced Japan to shift the center of gravity in Japan’s defense from the north to the south. But the fact that most of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF)’s troops are concentrated in the north and the geographically dispersed Southwest Islands are difficult to defend requires a more mobile and forward-leaned force posture (Hirohito 2023).   In addition to China’s operations in the water surrounding the Senkaku Islands, its forceful activities surrounding Taiwan have led the Japanese to fear that the security of the Southwest Islands is nearly inseparable from the security of Taiwan given the geographical proximity. By contrast, Japan’s fear of North Korea has been eased by the very existence of South Korea. While Japan’s efforts in strengthening its missile defense capabilities have been facilitated by North Korea’s missile threat, the effectiveness of its robust missile defense against North Korea’s missiles has not yet been lost, leading to the relatively benign threat perception toward the North.   As a result, as long as South Korea continues to exist and prosper, the strategic importance of South Korea is sometimes nearly invisible among the Japanese. Put differently, stronger South Korea serves Japan’s security interests, but this aspect is sometimes overlooked.   Two alliances with the United States further complicate the strategic calculus between the two. While the US-Korea alliance almost exclusively aims at the defense of South Korea, the US-Japan alliance has broader objectives at least from the US side and from other regional actors like South Korea. Conventionally, the US-Japan alliance has served a dual purpose: the defense of Japan and maintaining peace and security in the “Far East” including South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Therefore, it is natural that South Koreans expect Japan to provide a robust base for US forces to augment operations on the Peninsula, as Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol stated in 2023 that United Nations force bases in Japan have been functioning as the strongest deterrent against North Korea’s invasion to the South.   On the contrary, the Japanese had conventionally regarded this architecture as well as a stronger security tie with South Korea as something which could entrap Japan into the war in the Korean Peninsula, especially during the Cold War (Cha 2000). Additionally, its geographical proximity to nuclear-armed North Korea as well as the asymmetrical relationship in the US-Korea alliance always concern South Koreans about the credibility of US extended deterrence. Unlike South Korea, Japan’s concern about US extended deterrence is more benign due to the combination of the fact that it is separated from its threats by sea, the alliance’s broader strategic value, the assumption that Japan’s missile defense would work against North Korea’s missile strikes, and that China has a weaker incentive to employ nuclear weapons given its conventional superiority over Japan.   In sum, both Japan and South Korea have a geopolitical incentive to distance themselves from the other’s primary security concern even if putting aside domestic political dynamics. If that is the case, the next question would be how reasonable it is for the two to sustain this distancing strategy in the long run.   III. Changing Net Benefits of Bilateral Security Cooperation   To examine this question, it would be important to consider how net benefits for both countries would change toward 2050. Based on the assumption above, South Korea’s net benefit from cooperating with Japan would be higher than that of Japan in the short term. Even though South Korea is developing one of the most advanced military in the world in terms of its defense expenditure, North Korea’s focus on nuclear-armed short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) cause asymmetrical fears between South Korea and Japan; while those missiles may have overwhelming effect on South Korean soil and undermine the credibility of US extended deterrence, North Korea’s insufficient effort to modernize medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) has not made Japan desperate for cooperation with South Korea.   As a result, in addition to the reliance on US forces, South Korea would be better off by expecting Japan’s support in logistics, equipment, and operational intelligence when war breaks out. The war-sustaining capability would be key because attrition has become the dominant factor in contemporary warfare. The advent of new technologies such as precision-strike missiles, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) sensors, and drones has the effect of sustaining longer military operations rather than contributing to swift victory as we have seen in the war in Ukraine. The robust support by Japan could enhance South Korea’s war-sustaining effort in this regard.   In contrast, it would not be realistic for Japan to expect a consequential role for South Korea in confronting China given the unchanging geographical reality surrounding South Korea (although cooperation on North Korea issues would generate certain benefits for Japan). As a result, we may see that more eager South Korea and less eager Japan with respect to bilateral security cooperation in the short term (from a purely security-oriented perspective).   This could change over time. While North Korea continues to develop nuclear and missile capabilities, South Korea’s effort to strengthen its defense capabilities could enhance its defense autonomy in responding to North Korea’s threat in the long run. This would reduce the value of counting on Japanese support for Korea. On the contrary, once North Korea’s military technology on SRBMs and ICBMs reaches a certain level, it could finally undertake the modernization of MRBMs which is put off at present. If this materializes, Japan may feel directly threatened by North Korean missiles, leading to a stronger recognition of expecting security cooperation with South Korea.   Meanwhile, stronger China and declining US power in a relative term would generate an increasing necessity for Japan to cooperate with other partners including South Korea while South Korea’s difficulty in standing firm against China’s aggressiveness toward its neighbors may not be changed. As a result, we may see that more eager Japan and less eager South Korea with respect to bilateral security cooperation in the long run.   Of course, this shift in net benefits in cooperation is in a relative term and would not materialize overnight but would rather proceed gradually. Thus, it might be Japan’s benefit to take action early by taking advantage of the current net imbalances of benefits between the two.   IV. The “Foundational Cooperation” as a Cooperative Strategy   Even if moving early is a sensible strategy for Japan, the utility of cooperation will be limited for Japan when it is exclusively focused on North Korea. Therefore, binding South Korea to cooperation in a wide range of situations including China-initiated contingencies at earlier stages would serve Japan’s interest. But for South Korea, a too-explicit focus on China would conflict with its de facto “distancing” strategy. To mitigate these divergent requirements, the two countries could consider forging on the basic infrastructure of security cooperation which serves any situation affecting both parties flexibly. That is the approach that I call the “Foundational Cooperation.”   This approach may include the following areas. First, both countries should consider defense production cooperation ensuring war-sustaining capabilities in the age of the war of attrition. The responses to North Korean and Chinese threats would require expendable items like offensive and defense missiles as well as ammunition. While South Korea has developed a wide range of ballistic and cruise missiles to neutralize North Korea’s missile capabilities, the lack of adequate ISR systerns casts doubt on the operational utility of the strategy employing such missiles. On this point, Japan is developing options to enhance ISR and missile targeting capabilities such as satellites and expendable small observation missiles. South Korea may consider introducing these capabilities with Japan’s help.   In return, Japan’s defense industry lacks a robust production base for ammunition for ground assets primarily because of its low priority. But while the peacetime demand for such ammunition for ground systerns is limited, it is still necessary to prepare for expansion in demand in certain contingencies where Japan’s territorial defense is at stake. If this is the case, rather than maintaining a redundant production capacity for ammunition, Japan could examine the interoperability between Japanese ground systerns such as artillery and Korean shells and ammunition in expectation of wartime expanding demand.   Another area of cooperation would be rotational troop exercises of the JSDF and Korean troops between Japanese and Korean bases. Such exercises would enhance troops' readiness while increasing strategic depths and survivability from the enemy’s long-range missile strikes. South Korea’s advanced platforms such as F-35s are within the range of North Korea’s ballistic missiles. Likewise, Japan’s ports and airbases are under the threat of Chinese long-range missiles. The rotation of Japanese and Korean troops does not fundamentally change the nature of these threats, but North Korea and China may have a second thought about whether to target enemy assets located in another country because it could entrap the secondary threat into the war and escalate the conflict laterally.   Also, including Australian and Philippine military bases in the choices of rotation for Japan and South Korea might further complicate the enemy’s strategic calculations. To support this effort institutionally, the two countries could start discussions on having a visiting forces agreement (VFA) also called a reciprocal access agreement (RAA) in Japan.   Operational coordination would be a bit harder option, but it is worth considering provided that this would serve as infrastructure used for any regional contingency. Reciprocal embedding of military liaisons to the operational commands of both countries or bilateral coordination centers of alliances with the United States (Combined Forces Command (CFC) and Bilateral Operation Coordination Center (BOCC)) may be the first easier step for operational coordination.   The second step of operational coordination would be the planning phase. Although it would be difficult for both countries to fight shoulder-to-shoulder against a common adversary, it is worth considering how to count on the other’s logistical support in wartime. To optimally do so, prior joint planning on logistical support and establishing the necessary infrastructure (Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA)/Mutual Logistical Support Agreement (MLSA)) could increase the effectiveness of aggregate military capabilities.   In addition, joint engagement with regional partners, especially to help partners’ capabilities resist China’s assertive actions or stabilize two countries’ critical SLOCs in the Pacific would serve the interests of both parties while avoiding a strong response from China. The examples may include a joint effort to provide security assistance to the Philippines focusing on the capabilities of maritime domain awareness or to enhance Taiwan’s economic and social resilience against China’s gray-zone tactics such as increasing natural gas stockpiles and considering measures to protect undersea cable networks.   These measures do not necessarily have to specify target threats but could function as the basis for increasing the effectiveness of aggregate capabilities of both countries to respond to specific threats during contingencies. Moreover, because these measures could serve as a basis for and as a complement to two alliances with the United States, they would contribute to the integration of allies and partners in this region. Through the “Foundational Cooperation” consisting of these items, both parties might overcome the divergence of interests, priorities, and net benefits while minimizing geostrategic costs associated with cooperation. The adjustment between “binding” and “distancing” is the core of this approach.   V. Conclusion   Security cooperation between Japan and South Korea has suffered not only from political and diplomatic distrust but also from inherent divergences of geostrategic interests. But this does not mean that the two countries will never benefit from security alignments when the approach is cautiously crafted. This paper highlighted this dual aspect by designing the “Foundational Cooperation” construct. The inaction has been the luxury of the relatively moderate security environment in this region after the Second World War, especially for Japan. The recent trends show that this moderate environment ceased to exist, necessitating immediate actions for both countries.■   References   Cha, Victor. 2000. “Abandonment, Entrapment, and Neoclassical Realism in Asia: The United States, Japan, and Korea.” International Studies Quarterly 44, 2 (June): 261–91.   _______. 2010. “Powerplay: Origins of the U.S. Alliance systern in Asia.” International Security 34, 3 (January): 158–96.   Mearsheimer, John. 2014. “Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin.” Foreign Affairs, 93, 2: 77–89.   Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea. 2022. Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region, December 28. https://www.mofa.go.kr/eng/wpge/m_26382/contents.do.   Hirohito, Ogi. 2023. Evolving Japan-US Command and Control Cooperation for Forward Denial. Sydney: United States Studies Center, University of Sydney. https://www.ussc.edu.au/evolving-japan-us-command-and-control-cooperation-for-forward-denial.   Izumikawa, Yasuhiro. 2020. “Network Connections and the Emergence of the Hub-and-Spokes Alliance systern in East Asia.” International Security 45, 2 (October): 7–50.   The Japanese Cabinet. 2022. National Security Strategy of Japan (NSS). December. https://www.cas.go.jp/jp/siryou/221216anzenhoshou/nss-e.pdf.   Schroeder, Paul. 1994. “Historical Reality vs. Neo-Realist Theory.” International Security 19, 1: 108.   Schweller, Randall L. 1994. “Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In.” International Security 19, 1: 72.   _________. 1998. Deadly Imbalances: Tripolarity and Hitler’s Strategy of World Conquest. New York, NY: Columbia University Press.   Walt, Stephen M. 1990. The Origins of Alliances. Cornell Studies in Security Affairs. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.   Waltz, Kenneth N. 2010. Theory of International Politics. Long Grove, IL: Waveland Press.       ■ Hirohito Ogi is Senior Research Fellow of the Asia Pacific Initiative (API) and the Institute of Geoeconomics, International House of Japan     ■ Edited by Chaerin Kim, Research Assistant     For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | [email protected]    

Hirohito Ogi 2025-04-01Views : 11277
Working paper
[Korea-Japan Joint Work on the World 2050] ② Future Military and Security Environments Toward 2050: Challenges and Opportunities for Korea-Japan Relations

I. Major Variables to Assess Future Military and Security Environments Toward 2050   This paper examines the changes in the military and security environment surrounding South Korea and Japan at the regional (Northeast Asia, East Asia) and global levels. It also explores the directions and possibilities of security cooperation between South Korea and Japan. Addressing changes in the military-security environment over the next 25 years is a complex topic. Thus, this discussion will be guided by overarching logical structures rather than a precise temporal framework to accommodate the mid-to-long-term perspective. The future military-security environment involves various factors of change, but this paper will focus on the following key aspects:   First, changes in the global strategy of the United States and its security strategy in East Asia. As evidenced by the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the United States’ grand strategy in foreign and security affairs is undergoing fundamental transformation. These changes go beyond shifts between Republican and Democratic administrations or the emergence of unconventional leaders such as former President Donald Trump. The unipolar hegemonic systern that has persisted over the past 30 years has caused numerous issues, and the American public perceives the burdens of maintaining hegemony as increasingly unsustainable. The recent presidential election reflects the public’s evaluation and concerns regarding the country’s foreign and security direction. Consequently, the U.S. grand strategy in foreign and security affairs is expected to undergo significant changes. Notably, the weakening commitment to global engagement and East Asian involvement will substantially impact the security environment for South Korea and Japan. Given that both countries have maintained their security through strong military alliances with the United States, changes in U.S. military-security policies will be a major factor.   Second, the intensification of strategic competition between the United States and China. Strategic competition between the two nations initially emerged in the economic sphere but has evolved to encompass various aspects of national governance, including economic securitization, economic-security issues, politically influenced supply chain decoupling, the Biden administration’s de-risking policies, and broader decoupling policies under the Trump administration. Looking ahead, U.S.-China strategic competition is increasingly likely to shift into military rivalry and confrontations around key conflict areas in East Asia. This dynamic will significantly influence the military-security environment surrounding South Korea and Japan.   Third, changes in the nuclear environment in East Asia. Notably, China is rapidly modernizing its nuclear weapons and delivery systerns. Nuclear parity between the United States and China could be achieved within the next decade, potentially signaling the emergence of mutual assured destruction (MAD). Such developments in nuclear dynamics will have significant implications for U.S.-China gray-zone conflicts and broader military competition. Furthermore, the New START Treaty between the United States and Russia is expected to expire in February 2026. The potential collapse of strategic nuclear agreements, which have been a cornerstone of U.S.-Russia relations since the 1970s, could usher in a new era of nuclear competition among major powers. Given the ongoing war in Ukraine, further deterioration in U.S.-Russia relations is anticipated, intensifying nuclear competition as a grave threat. Additionally, North Korea’s advanced nuclear and missile capabilities will remain a significant variable. Though North Korea has long posed a continuous threat to the security of South Korea and Japan, its strengthening strategic cooperation with China and Russia is likely to further impact security cooperation involving South Korea and Japan.   Fourth, advancements in cutting-edge technology will profoundly affect the military-security environment. The rapid development of automation and autonomy technologies is driving transformative changes in military technology. Emerging technologies, such as generative AI, anticipated general and superintelligence, quantum computing, quantum encryption, and quantum communication, will have substantial applications in the military domain. As these technological changes accelerate within the next decade, understanding their impact on the security environment of South Korea and Japan will be crucial.   Fifth, non-traditional military-security issues, such as environmental challenges, ecological crises, and health emergencies, will increasingly influence matters within the realm of the military and security. These critical issues, potentially escalating to existential threats, could intensify interstate conflicts and may necessitate military measures for resolution. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the strengthening of state jurisdiction and regulatory power to manage crises. Looking ahead, ecological crises driven by climate change are expected to worsen. In this context, states may resort to military conflict to protect their populations, making this an area of significant concern.   II. Changes of the U.S. Strategy and the Future of U.S.-China Rivalry   The 2024 U.S. presidential election signals long-term changes in America’s security strategy. Since World War II, the United States has pursued a foreign and security strategy aimed at establishing and maintaining a liberal international order. While ostensibly promoting collective security, this strategy has in practice involved providing security as a public good based on alliances.   This hegemonic strategy has allowed U.S. foreign policy to encompass a broad spectrum, combining elements of neo-isolationism, restraint, and balancing, particularly evident in the Republican Party’s grand strategy. However, after three decades of experiencing a unipolar hegemonic systern, the U.S. is now adopting a security strategy increasingly focused on its national interests.   A more fundamental concern, as revealed in the last presidential election, is that former President Trump not only opposes the liberal grand strategy but also appears averse to U.S. global leadership itself. Should the U.S. abdicate its global leadership role or its hegemonic position in international politics, significant changes to the international order would ensue. If the U.S. prioritizes its own interests while disregarding the existing multilateral, rules-based order, the world could undergo its most fundamental transformation since World War II.   Trump’s foreign and security strategy is likely to pose significant challenges to U.S. allies, including South Korea and Japan. Traditionally, the U.S. hegemonic strategy has been characterized by a benevolent approach, providing security as a public good in exchange for economic concessions from its allies. However, the Trump administration’s simultaneous demands for economic concessions, increased defense cost-sharing, and greater military contributions may be perceived as a coercive hegemonic strategy. This shift may erode trust between the U.S. and its allies, creating opportunities for China to exploit divisions within the U.S. alliance systern. Indeed, China appears to expect that Trump’s pressure will accelerate independent foreign and security strategies among U.S. allies, weakening the overall alliance framework.   President Trump is expected to strongly demand increased defense cost-sharing from allies while also seeking greater military contributions to bolster global deterrence, particularly against China. These demands deviate from traditional U.S. hegemonic strategy and are likely to generate confusion and resistance among allies.   South Korea and Japan are particularly sensitive to Trump’s foreign policy approach. Both countries rank among the top nations with trade surpluses with the U.S. and are perceived by Trump as not contributing enough to defense costs. Additionally, both nations host some of the largest U.S. overseas military bases and a substantial number of U.S. troops.   Along with Trump, key Republican figures have also publicly argued that U.S. military support should now be leveraged not only against North Korea but also to contain China. South Korea and Japan must carefully evaluate their responses to Trump’s demands for increased defense contributions while also determining their roles in U.S. efforts to counter China. This includes addressing the potential changes in the role of U.S. forces in the event of a contingency involving Taiwan and preparing strategies to North Korea’s continued provocations. These challenges necessitate a diplomatic approach that balances security and economic interests for both nations.   III. Emerging Technology and Uncertain Future of Security Environments   The recent wars in Ukraine and Gaza demonstrate that AI is already being utilized across multiple dimensions of warfare, a trend that is expected to accelerate and persist in the medium to long term. As nuclear weapons, conventional arms, and psychological and information warfare converge with AI, these domains will rapidly evolve into AI-based nuclear weapons, autonomous weapon systerns, and cognitive warfare. South Korea and Japan are also expected to face changes in the military-security environment driven by advanced technologies in the future. As democratic nations, they have strived to establish common norms, but going forward, there is a need for more pragmatic responses in addressing military and security challenges.   AI, as a general-purpose technology, functions as a meta-enhancement that strengthens existing technologies. It not only improves specific weapon systerns but also transforms the operational frameworks of warfare, decision-making processes related to conflicts, and the perceptions and responses of governments, military institutions, and societies. AI’s multidimensional nature ensures its pervasive influence on the future of conflict.   Given the geopolitical competition among nations, the likelihood of preventing the military utilization of AI technology is slim. Moreover, there is a possibility that AI could rapidly develop in unintended directions, potentially escaping human control. Nations widely recognize AI as an innovative tool for bolstering national security, making it unlikely that proactive caution regarding military AI technologies will emerge until an event demonstrates the shared harm AI poses to the international community. It is imperative to comprehensively assess the current applications of AI in nuclear weapons, autonomous weapon systerns, and cognitive warfare. Equally critical is anticipating the common challenges these advancements might present and initiating serious discussions to address them in a timely manner.   The integration of AI into nuclear systerns significantly increases the risk of unintended nuclear conflicts. First, AI-driven decision-making can lead to miscalculations based on flawed data or misinterpretations of adversary actions, potentially escalating tensions. The accelerated decision-making enabled by AI leaves less time for human deliberation, increasing the likelihood of errors and misjudgments. Second, AI systerns are highly vulnerable to cyberattacks, such as data manipulation, hacking, or “data poisoning,” which could distort nuclear command systerns, trigger false alarms, or hinder appropriate responses. The interconnected nature of networked systerns also amplifies the risk, as a single malfunction can cascade through the entire systern. Third, over-reliance on AI or distrust in its judgments may undermine human control in critical moments, delaying or misguiding decisions on nuclear weapon use. The opacity of AI’s decision-making processes, known as the “black-box” problem, further complicates oversight and correction. Lastly, AI integration threatens strategic stability by enhancing surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, potentially enabling preemptive strikes and increasing “use-it-or-lose-it” pressures on nuclear arsenals. Moreover, the adoption of AI fosters a technological arms race, exacerbating global military competition and instability.   Second, the rapid development of autonomous weapon systerns (AWS) integrated with AI has escalated global military competition, raising significant ethical, legal, and strategic concerns. AI-driven AWS, such as autonomous drones and swarm technologies, pose challenges due to their unpredictable behavior in dynamic environments, accelerated decision-making that heightens the risk of unintended conflict escalation, and the ease of mass production, making these systerns accessible to non-state actors and terrorists. Moreover, their potential use for targeted killings, including ethnic cleansing, amplifies risks of bias and disproportionate harm, as evidenced by flaws in facial recognition technologies. Despite international calls for regulation, major powers like the U.S., China, and Australia are advancing military AI projects, further fueling the arms race.   In the long term, AWS development is expected to significantly alter warfare dynamics, enabling faster, automated combat while minimizing human involvement. However, the potential for systern errors and malfunctions increases the likelihood of heightened tensions between nations. In the context of U.S.-China strategic rivalry, both nations are aggressively pursuing military AI advancements to secure dominance, risking strategic stability. This competition not only threatens global military balance but also introduces complex ethical and legal dilemmas that demand international cooperation to address the far-reaching consequences of autonomous weapon systerns.   Third, cognitive warfare, conducted at the international level by adversarial forces, represents a form of cyber conflict where organized groups manipulate online discourse and discredit political opponents through misinformation, propaganda, and manipulative techniques. This includes tactics such as spreading unfounded claims to destroy reputations and using profile-based micro-targeting to weaken political institutions, potentially leading to widespread insurgency and the collapse of existing political orders. AI significantly enhances the sophistication and effectiveness of cognitive warfare strategies by enabling precise psychological manipulation, dissemination of false information, and influencing beliefs and behaviors. Emerging technologies like AI and neurotechnology act as key enablers of cognitive warfare, driving nations to militarize dual-use technologies and accelerate technological arms races. This competitive dynamic often undermines ethical, legal, and normative constraints, as states prioritize disruptive capabilities to maintain national security. As a result, cognitive warfare normalizes the militarization of the mind, fosters irresponsible actions in the cognitive domain, and hinders the establishment of norms protecting mental privacy, autonomy, and integrity. Furthermore, these dynamics exacerbate technological decoupling among major powers, intensifying global tensions (Chun 2024).   IV. Shifting Nuclear Balance among East Asian Countries   1. China’s Nuclear Modernization   According to DoD annual report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China, China’s longstanding national strategy is to achieve “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049 (Office of the Secretary of Defense 2022). This strategy determinedly pursues political, social, economic, technological, and military development to increase the PRC’s national power and revise the international order in support of the PRC’s systern of governance and national interests. The PLA has sought to modernize its capabilities and improve its proficiencies across all warfare domains to become a joint force capable of the full range of land, air, and maritime as well as nuclear, space, counterspace, electronic warfare, and cyberspace operations.   In the first stage from 2021 to 2035, the CCP aims for the PRC to “basically” meet its initial thresholds for becoming a “great modern socialist country.” In this stage, the PRC will likely continue to prioritize economic development as “the central task” but, rather than rapid economic growth, it will seek to address its uneven economic development and inequalities that Beijing recognized as the new “principal contradiction” in PRC society in the “New Era.” By 2035, the PRC seeks to increase self-reliance through enhancing its economic and technological strength, including “basically” completing its military modernization by becoming a “global leader in innovation” and enhancing self-sufficiency in key areas like food supply. The PRC intends to significantly strengthen its cultural “soft power” and improve its domestic rule of law and governance systerns.   In the second stage from 2035 to 2049, the PRC aims to attain national rejuvenation and Chinese modernization, realizing an international status that Xi describes as a “global leader in terms of comprehensive national strength and international influence.” A renewed PRC will have attained—among the CCP’s many goals—its objectives to field a world-class military and assume a leading position in an international order revised in line with the PRC’s overall foreign policy goal to establish what it refers to as a “community of common destiny” or, the PRC’s preferred official English translation, “community with a shared future for mankind.”   Over the next decade, China is expected to rapidly modernize, diversify, and expand its nuclear forces to provide options across the escalation ladder, from low-yield precision strike missiles to high-yield ICBMs. The Department of Defense (DoD) estimates that China’s nuclear stockpile surpassed 600 operational warheads in 2024 and is projected to exceed 1,000 by 2030, with further expansion planned through 2035 to achieve the PLA’s modernization goals. Beijing’s use of fast breeder reactors and reprocessing facilities, ostensibly for peaceful purposes, likely contributes to its nuclear weapons program. Additionally, China is arming its solid-propellant silo fields, which include 320 silos across three new fields, and expanding its DF-5 liquid-silo force to approximately 50 silos. These efforts align with Beijing’s strategy to establish an “early warning counterstrike” posture, enhancing the survivability and responsiveness of its launch sites (Kristensen et al. 2024, 49–72).     Projections for the growth of China’s nuclear weapons stockpile depend significantly on assumptions about how China’s three new solid-fuel missile silo fields will be armed.     Source: (Kristensen et al. 2024).   China’s growing nuclear capabilities enable the PLA to target more U.S. cities, military facilities, and leadership sites, marking a shift from a minimal deterrence strategy focused on MAD to one capable of inflicting greater damage in a nuclear exchange. This modernization includes the development of advanced delivery systerns to counter U.S. missile defenses and lower-yield weapons for more discriminate strikes, suggesting that Beijing aims to sustain multiple rounds of counterstrikes and increase its ability to dominate in a nuclear conflict. These advancements highlight China’s long-term commitment to achieving a “world-class” military by 2049.   China’s nuclear strategy emphasizes deterrence against a first strike and counterstrike capabilities to retaliate against an adversary’s military, population, and economy, aiming to de-escalate conflicts and return to conventional warfare while maintaining sufficient force to deter further aggression. Although Beijing upholds a no-first-use (NFU) policy, ambiguities exist, as the PRC may consider nuclear first use in response to non-nuclear threats endangering its nuclear forces, command and control (C2), or the survival of the CCP regime, particularly in scenarios involving Taiwan. The combination of conventional and nuclear missile forces and the dispersal of mobile systerns during conflicts complicate the identification of missile types and escalation management, increasing the risk of inadvertent attacks on nuclear assets and “use-or-lose” pressures. This strategic ambiguity remains a key challenge for adversaries attempting to navigate deterrence and escalation dynamics with the PRC (Kristensen et al. 2024, 101–102).   China’s nuclear forces, when developed to achieve parity or near parity with the United States, could enable China to adopt a more assertive gray zone strategy. To date, China has adhered to a minimum deterrence strategy aimed at countering potential U.S. aggression. However, as U.S.-China military competition accelerates and China’s gray zone strategies become increasingly aggressive, its nuclear forces are expected to play a more significant role. In a scenario of military conflict between China and the U.S. and Taiwan over Taiwan, China may utilize its nuclear strategies in various ways.   Currently, China’s comparatively weaker nuclear forces make it wary of escalation in gray zone disputes, fearing they may lead to full-scale conventional warfare and potentially nuclear conflict with the U.S., where China’s nuclear capabilities remain inadequate. However, in a decade or more, when nuclear parity or mutual assured destruction is achieved, China may feel less compelled to exercise restraint in gray zone strategies.   China has already demonstrated the use of complex strategies in gray zone conflicts, and if nuclear capabilities are incorporated, it is likely to adopt even more assertive approaches. This could lead to an expansion of China’s aggression in areas such as the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Taiwan, posing significant security threats to South Korea and Japan.   2. Multipolar Nuclear Strategic Environment in Northeast Asia   The challenges to strategic stability in a multipolar world are becoming increasingly evident as the erosion of US-Russia arms control frameworks, exemplified by the suspension of New START, highlights the fragile nature of bilateral agreements. The shift toward a multipolar nuclear order, with China’s growing arsenal and its potential role in a broader arms race, complicates efforts to maintain stability. Meanwhile, Russia’s actions in Ukraine, including its misuse of nuclear deterrence, expose the limitations of existing arms control and nonproliferation agreements in addressing modern geopolitical crises. These developments raise concerns about the adaptability of traditional strategic stability concepts to a multipolar environment, where technological advancements and the integration of emerging nuclear powers demand new approaches (Kühn 2023).   As the post-Cold War order concludes, great power geopolitical competition intensifies, with the emergence of what could be termed “the axis of revisionism.” This includes the ongoing Ukraine war, closer strategic ties between China and Russia, the military alliance between North Korea and Russia formalized in June 2024, and Iran’s military support to Russia’s Ukraine war through drone supplies. Well-documented missile cooperation between North Korea and Iran further adds to these dynamics. Together, military cooperation among North Korea, China, and Russia is likely to have profound implications for Northeast Asian geopolitics.   While the bilateral nuclear balance between the U.S. and Russia has been pivotal, the emerging era will prioritize a multipolar nuclear order. Strategic agreements between the U.S. and Russia may not be extended, and the likelihood of nuclear arms negotiations between the U.S. and China remains extremely low. Meanwhile, North Korea continues to enhance its nuclear and missile capabilities despite international sanctions. The strategic cooperation among North Korea, Russia, and China is accelerating in this context (Eom 2024).   Although a formal trilateral alliance has not yet emerged, strategic contradictions and overlaps exist among these nations’ interests. Nonetheless, their common opposition to the U.S. could drive closer collaboration, particularly if the U.S.’s relative military strength declines. If Russia utilizes nuclear power to alter the status quo in Europe, China and North Korea may similarly combine their nuclear capabilities to seek changes in Northeast Asia. Such developments would compel the U.S., South Korea, and Japan to address a multifaceted nuclear threat.   In such a scenario, challenges arise over how the U.S. could extend nuclear deterrence to South Korea and Japan, and how the region could collectively respond to a hybrid nuclear threat posed by North Korea. Conversely, international and multilateral cooperation to address these developments remains limited.   V. Prospects for South Korea-Japan Security Cooperation Toward 2050   Long-term security cooperation between South Korea and Japan becomes increasingly critical. First, if the U.S. East Asia security strategy undergoes fundamental shifts, both nations could face heightened security threats. Since World War II, South Korea and Japan have relied on close alliances with the U.S. to ensure their security. During the Cold War, their strategy was centered on countering the military threats from communist forces, with the U.S. alliance serving as the axis of this framework. As Victor Cha has noted, when U.S. security commitments to East Asia weaken, South Korea and Japan have historically accelerated security cooperation despite bilateral tensions (Cha 1999). While this trend has not always been consistent, a weakening U.S. security commitment underscores the growing necessity for South Korea-Japan security collaboration. If U.S. foreign policy shifts further toward Trumpian “America First” doctrines or offshore balancing strategies, the security needs of South Korea and Japan will inevitably increase. Managing bilateral issues effectively while establishing new frameworks for security cooperation will be crucial.   Second, as U.S.-China strategic competition intensifies, South Korea and Japan will face similar security challenges. The U.S. may leverage the South Korea-U.S. and U.S.-Japan alliances to counter China’s security threats, requiring both countries to increase defense spending and adapt their strategic frameworks. This burden is heavier for South Korea. Japan already maintains direct military tensions with China, particularly in the East China Sea, and has been proactively pursuing changes in the U.S.-Japan alliance to counter China’s military rise. In contrast, South Korea has yet to formulate clear strategic responses, despite the Taiwan Strait crisis posing a significant threat to its supply chains and economic security.   In the long term, if China secures dominance in the first island chain and integrates regions within the Belt and Road Initiative into its security sphere, South Korea and Japan will face shared exposure to China’s threats. As U.S.-China competition escalates into military confrontation, and as Taiwan Strait and South China Sea issues impact the protection of supply routes, economic security, and military security in South Korea and Japan, the need for cooperation will only intensify.   South Korea and Japan also face the challenge of balancing their deep economic ties with China while addressing U.S. demands for military containment of Beijing. The broad areas of cooperation under frameworks such as China-South Korea-Japan trilateral initiatives further complicate strategic responses to U.S.-China competition for both countries.   Third, amid the rapid advancement of cutting-edge technology, South Korea-Japan technological cooperation is increasingly vital. On the one hand, both countries must prevent the military exploitation of advanced technologies that could destabilize strategic stability in East Asia. As liberal democracies, they should collaborate to establish international norms to prevent the militarization of AI and other emerging technologies.   At the same time, they must prepare for great power geopolitical competition leveraging advanced technologies. China’s potential to surpass the U.S. in military AI and quantum technology could rapidly shift the military balance. Despite changes in the U.S. global strategy, technological cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan remains indispensable. Even with lukewarm U.S. engagement, sustained South Korea-Japan cooperation in advanced technology is crucial. This necessitates close dialogues to evaluate security environments and align security strategies between the two nations.   Fourth, the issue of the future global nuclear order is directly linked to the security interests of South Korea and Japan. If the U.S. extended deterrence commitment weakens while nuclear capabilities of China, North Korea, and Russia grow, coupled with strengthened cooperation among these states, it would pose a critical threat to the security of both South Korea and Japan. Therefore, it is important to identify areas where South Korea and Japan can cooperate to address challenges.   First, South Korea and Japan need a shared understanding of the weakening and possible collapse of the global nuclear order. As non-nuclear weapon states surrounded by nuclear-armed nations, South Korea and Japan share a common predicament. Thus, they should strongly advocate for the strict adherence to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the suppression of vertical nuclear proliferation among major powers, and the necessity of arms control negotiations among nuclear-armed states. In this process, efforts should also be made to establish a multilateral framework that addresses the complete denuclearization of North Korea. Additionally, it is crucial to recognize that the nuclear order in Northeast Asia carries significant global implications and to devise joint measures to address this issue on a global scale.   Second, though immediate prospects for nuclear arms control agreements between the U.S. and China are limited, the importance of dialogue and laying the groundwork for future negotiations must be underscored. South Korea and Japan, as key U.S. allies, should actively support U.S.-led efforts to initiate crisis management discussions with China, emphasizing the need for transparency and responsible nuclear strategy. Both nations must strengthen regional coordination with the U.S. to ensure unified messaging while enhancing their own deterrence capabilities, particularly in missile defense, to complement U.S. efforts and maintain regional stability. Furthermore, they should advocate for China’s inclusion in multilateral arms control frameworks, such as through the P5 or regional security mechanisms, encouraging broader engagement and accountability. By aligning closely with U.S. strategies and promoting multilateral dialogue, South Korea and Japan can contribute to reducing risks and ensuring stability amidst increasing U.S.-China strategic competition (Santoro 2023).   Third, given the growing nuclear threats, joint efforts between South Korea and Japan are necessary to strengthen the U.S. extended deterrence commitment. Although South Korea and Japan maintain bilateral alliances with the United States, they face common challenges due to nuclear threats from neighboring countries. The Camp David Agreement includes provisions for immediate consultations in the event of issues significantly affecting regional security. Similarly, close cooperation among South Korea, Japan, and the United States is essential when nuclear threats from neighboring countries escalate. The core of this effort lies in the U.S. extended deterrence commitment, and it will require a shared understanding between South Korea and Japan as well as coordinated demands on the United States to continuously enhance this commitment.   Fourth, if North Korea’s nuclear threat intensifies and the U.S. extended deterrence weakens, South Korea may feel an increasing necessity for independent nuclear armament. In such a scenario, South Korea would inevitably face concerns about economic sanctions from the United States and the international community, as well as fears of a nuclear domino effect involving Japan and potentially Taiwan. If South Korea finds no alternative to independent nuclear armament, it will need to work closely with Japan in advance to establish mechanisms to convince Japan that South Korea’s nuclear armament contributes to Japanese security and regional nuclear deterrence in Northeast Asia. Exploring the feasibility of prior consultations or dialogues between South Korea and Japan will be crucial to prevent South Korea’s nuclear armament from undermining the global nuclear order.   Lastly, both South Korea and Japan need a common preparation for the scenario where nuclear parity is achieved between China and the United States, accompanied by mutual assured destruction. As aforementioned, if China attains nuclear parity with the United States, it is likely to adopt more aggressive gray zone strategies in conflict zones across East Asia. This would pose shared threats to South Korea and Japan, necessitating the sharing of threat perceptions and coordinated responses. Both countries should demand greater transparency from China and effectively convey their shared intent to both the United States and China to encourage nuclear arms control negotiations between the two powers.   Despite existing differences and perception gaps between South Korea and Japan on various issues and within security contexts, they will ultimately face common military threats and the necessity for long-term cooperation. Thus, sustaining multidimensional consultative efforts from now is vital to fostering long-term cooperation.   References   References   Ahn, Kyungmo. 2024. “The New Cold War and the North Korea-China-Russia Triangle: Strategic Implications.” Global North Korea (EAI) Special Report, December 20.   Cha, Victor D. 1999. Alignment Despite Antagonism: The United States-Korea-Japan Security Triangle. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.   Chun, Chaesung. 2024. “Military Challenge ②: The Development of AI-Based Autonomous Weapon systerns, Cognitive Warfare, and Changes in the Military Security Order.” EAI National Security Research Center Special Report, September 6.   Eom, Gu Ho. 2024. “The DPRK-Russia-China Triangle Under Trump 2.0: Future Prospects and Strategic Responses.” Global North Korea (EAI) Special Report, December 13.   Jun, Jaewoo. 2024. “China’s Calculus on DPRK-Russia Alignment: A Geopolitical Perspective.” Global North Korea (EAI) Special Report, December 13.   Kristensen, Hans. 2024. “The 2024 DOD China Military Power Report.” Federation of American Scientists, December 18.   Kristensen, Hans M., Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, and Mackenzie Knight. 2024. “Chinese Nuclear Weapons, 2024.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 80, 1: 49–72, 101–102.   Kühn, Ulrich. 2023. “Strategic Stability in the 21st Century: An Introduction.” Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament 6, 1: 1–8.   Office of the Secretary of Defense. 2022. Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China: Annual Report to Congress Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000. Washington, DC: Department of Defense.   Santoro, David. 2023. “Getting Past No: Developing a Nuclear Arms Control Relationship with China.” Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament 6, 1: 68–86.       ■ Chaesung Chun is Chair of EAI’s National Security Research Center and Professor at Seoul National University.     ■ Translated and edited by Chaerin Kim, Research Assistant     For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | [email protected]    

Chaesung Chun 2025-04-01Views : 3488
Working paper
[Korea-Japan Joint Work on the World 2050] ① Taking a Future-Oriented Approach to ROK-Japan Partnership

The frequent employment of the term “future-oriented Korea-Japan relations” reflects the fact that bilateral relations have been predominantly characterized by both diplomatic dialogue and conflict regarding historical issues. The two nations have long been at odds on the interpretation of history, particularly in relation to Japan’s colonial rule and wartime actions during the years of modern transition.   The normalization of diplomatic relations between Korea and Japan, achieved sixty years ago, was the result of a compromise on historical disputes. However, subsequent decades have necessitated continued diplomatic efforts to address contentious matters, including the narrative of Japan’s history textbooks, the Japanese Prime Minister’s visits to Yasukuni Shrine, and the unresolved statuses of wartime “comfort women” and forced laborers. Even in 2025, these issues remain a significant source of controversy.   With regard to the comfort women issue, the two governments reached the “Korea-Japan Agreement of December 28, 2015, on the Issue of ‘Comfort Women’ Victims.” However, disputes persist concerning both the content of the agreement and its implementation. Similarly, the South Korean government proposed a “third-party reimbursement” plan in 2023 as a resolution for the victims of forced labor, but the issue remains unresolved due to Japan’s insufficient cooperation in meeting South Korea’s expectations. Furthermore, the designation of Sado Island Gold Mines as a UNESCO World Heritage Site has provoked severe backlash within Korea.   In this context, historical conflicts between the nations go beyond being unresolved conundrums in the diplomatic realm, but has evolved into obstructions instrumental in bilateral relations that wield significant influence in areas beyond history and diplomacy, such as in the economy and national security. For instance, former President Lee Myung-bak’s 2012 visit to Dokdo and his demand for an apology from the Japanese Emperor came with the breakdown of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) negotiations and the termination of the Korea-Japan currency swap agreement. Tensions escalated in 2013 following then-Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s statement denying Japan’s military aggression in the 1930s and 1940s, along with his visit to the Yasukuni Shrine. In 2014, disputes over a resolution to the comfort women issue, coupled with heightened international public diplomacy efforts, further strained bilateral relations.   While the 2015 agreement on comfort women initially provided an opportunity for rapprochement, relations soured again in 2018 following the dissolution of the “Reconciliation and Healing Foundation” and the South Korean Supreme Court’s rulings on forced labor compensation. These developments triggered a series of retaliatory measures, including the radar lock-on dispute in the East Sea, Japan’s 2019 trade restrictions against South Korea and Seoul’s countermeasures, and South Korea’s announcement of its intention to terminate GSOMIA.   The persistent emotional hostility and mutual distrust surrounding history issues has led both governments to hesitate in engaging in cooperative initiatives, to undervalue each other’s strategic significance, and, at times, to adopt overtly adversarial policies. Although the Yoon Suk Yeol government’s proposal of a “third-party reimbursement” plan in 2023 has facilitated a tangible improvement in bilateral relations, historical disputes remain a substantial impediment to achieving long-term stability.   In this regard, the concept of a “future-oriented relationship” serves as a discourse that seeks to transcend the reality in which Korea-Japan relations remain mired in historical disputes, thereby hindering progress on cooperative agendas. In other words, the term “future-oriented” should be understood as a call to prioritize collaborative functional agendas over historical controversies. It emphasizes that historical disputes should not obstruct bilateral cooperation in key areas such as trade, technology, security, and climate change.   Korea and Japan face a multitude of challenges that necessitate joint responses, including North Korea’s nuclear and missile development, China’s attempts at economic coercion, rising protectionist pressures from the United States, the climate and environmental crisis, maritime transport security, and the stable supply of energy resources. The breadth of these shared concerns underscores the significant convergence of national interests between the two countries.   However, merely addressing these areas of cooperation does not inherently constitute a future-oriented Korea-Japan partnership. It is necessary to reconsider the very notion of “future.” The context of Korea-Japan relations must be considered in an extended temporal and spatial dimension that primarily concerns to the younger and future generations, rather than the current generation, which remains primarily concerned with the past and present. For the younger generation, the future is a tangible reality set to unfold in a few decades, around 2045 or 2050, when they come to dominate leadership roles in society and assume the role of the mainstream generation. When that inflection point comes, what kind of future will these generations encounter, and what vision of Korea-Japan relations will they seek to realize?   This study aims to identify the key challenges that the younger generations of Korea and Japan will encounter in the next two decades, define the critical tasks necessary to address these challenges, and explore strategic directions for effective responses. While many initiatives marking the 60th anniversary of Korea-Japan diplomatic normalization in 2025 focus on finding solutions to current bilateral issues, this study takes a forward-looking approach by envisioning the future of Korea-Japan relations for the next generation and formulating a vision for sustained cooperation.   Future Challenges   First, the security challenges of 2050 will likely involve existential threats to humanity. For South Korea, traditional security concerns have been centered on the division of the Korean Peninsula and North Korea’s nuclear and missile development. For Japan, the primary security focus has been on the perceived threat from China. Consequently, the current generation’s security framework is predominantly shaped by the U.S.-South Korea alliance and the U.S.-Japan alliance. However, as future generations become the mainstream of society, key security challenges will include the worsening climate crisis, great power nuclear rivalry, and the risks of AI misuse and loss of control.   [Figure 1] Trends and Projections of Global GDP Share   A critical factor in shaping the future security order is the evolution of the United States’ global strategy and its regional security strategy in East Asia. As illustrated in [Figure 1], a key determinant of this evolving security landscape is the long-term decline of the U.S. economy. By the 2030s, China’s economy is projected to surpass or closely rival that of the United States. If this occurs, the military power gap—where the U.S. has traditionally maintained a distinct advantage—will inevitably shrink, intensifying strategic competition between the two nations.   As Chun (2025)’s analysis suggests, the U.S. is pursuing strategic adjustments amid a domestic consensus that it can no longer bear the costs of sustaining a unipolar hegemonic systern. The rise and return of President Trump signify a departure from the U.S. commitment to the liberal international order, marking a shift toward a narrower pursuit of national interests and a retreat from its global leadership role. This strategic transformation is closely linked to shifts in the balance of power between the U.S. and China, leading to significant changes in the nuclear order, the governance of advanced technologies, and the alliance structures in East Asia.   Consequently, the future security order that South Korea and Japan will face will undergo a fundamental transformation in response to shifts in U.S. foreign strategy, all while the U.S.-China strategic competition continues to persist and intensify. In adapting to these structural changes, South Korea and Japan must, as Ogi (2025) emphasizes, seek “foundational cooperation” by aligning their policies toward China and North Korea.   The second major challenge is economic transformation. As shown in [Figure 1], the future global economic landscape indicates a marked decline in the economic share of the United States and Europe, while Asia is poised to become the dominant economic center. Over the next 20 to 30 years, ASEAN and India are expected to be the primary drivers of global economic growth. In particular, by 2050, India is projected to emerge as a major economic power alongside the United States and China, forming a tripolar economic structure. In light of these shifts, Korea-Japan economic cooperation must be reoriented from its traditional focus on the United States and Western economies toward deeper integration with Asia.   A more significant systernic change is de-globalization. As Lee (2025) highlights, the United States, which has long upheld a liberal economic order, is shifting toward protectionism, while the rise of economic security concerns has led to increased state control over economic activities. These trends indicate a broader retreat from globalization. While the current strategic challenge for major economies is to devise individual survival strategies (各生, “each seeking its own survival”), the long-term task for future generations will be to revive the benefits of globalization while simultaneously addressing income disparities and mitigating economic security risks, ultimately striving for re-globalization.   Future-oriented Korea-Japan economic cooperation must be structured within a broad framework that remains free and open while also promoting inclusivity and resilience in shaping a new international economic order. As Terada (2025) suggests, South Korea and Japan should establish a high-level “3+3” dialogue, with Japan supporting South Korea’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and both countries working to develop a government-private collaboration framework to enhance cooperation in advanced technology sectors.   The third major challenge is the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). As a transformative technology, AI is expected to drive fundamental shifts in military, economic, and political structures. Generative AI, in particular, enables cost reduction, data-driven decision-making, and increased corporate productivity, making it a key driver of national competitiveness. In response, major economies are escalating AI competition, accelerating corporate investments, and widening the global disparity in AI capabilities.   At the same time, AI poses significant risks, including the spread of disinformation, manipulation of public opinion, and heightened societal instability. Concerns are also growing over the potential for AI to be deployed indiscriminately in military applications or to operate beyond human control in various domains, leading to existential threats. Shiono (2025) underscores the critical importance of establishing guidelines that ensure the safe and ethical use of AI technologies.   Baek (2025) identifies the growing decoupling pressures on the global AI ecosystern—driven by U.S.-China AI competition—as a key challenge for South Korea and Japan. As AI middle powers, both countries would benefit from a more integrated AI ecosystern, making policy cooperation essential in addressing this issue. He suggests that the two countries align their mid-to-long-term AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) visions and foster trans-generational, full-cycle cooperation spanning the entire AI development process—from planning and design to implementation. Additionally, he proposes the joint development of AGI-driven projects aimed at achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).   The fourth major challenge is climate change and energy crisis. These issues pose existential threats to humanity, making them among the most formidable challenges that future generations will face. Consequently, compared to the current generation, younger generations inevitably exhibit a heightened sense of urgency. For instance, as shown in the 2024 EAI public opinion survey ([Figure 2, 3]), South Korean youth perceive fine dust pollution as a major threat, reflecting a distinct security perspective from that of the older generation.   [Figure 2] Perceived Threats to South Korea   [Figure 3] Perceived Threats to South Korea by Age Group   Given that both Japan and South Korea remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels for their energy supply, achieving “carbon neutrality by 2050” stands as one of their most pressing future challenges. Over the past six decades, South Korea’s average temperature has risen from 11.03°C in 1965 to 13.32°C in 2023, an increase of 2.29°C. Similarly, Japan has experienced a rise from 10.04°C in 1965 to 12.99°C in 2023, marking an increase of 2.95°C. Consequently, the carbon neutrality targets established under the 2015 Paris Agreement pose an immense challenge for both countries. Given that their rates of temperature increase are projected to exceed the global average, the impact of this transition on their energy and industrial sectors will be profound—akin to a seismic shift in their economic structures.   In this context, Harada (2025) and Lim (2025) emphasize that a comprehensive energy transition and international cooperation are essential. They argue that South Korea and Japan must actively pursue joint initiatives, including LNG co-development and market integration, advancements in decarbonization technologies, and enhanced collaboration in renewable energy and nuclear power.   The fifth major challenge is demographic change. This issue is particularly pronounced in South Korea and Japan, stemming from unique domestic factors. Currently, both countries rank among those with the highest life expectancy in the world. In 2022, South Korea’s life expectancy was 83.5 years, while Japan’s was 84.7 years, significantly exceeding the OECD average of 80.5 years. A longer life expectancy increases the proportion of elderly individuals, contributing to the overall aging of the population. However, both countries also have the lowest fertility rates globally, further accelerating population aging. As shown in [Figure 4], the sharp decline in birth rates has led to a decreasing proportion of young people, while the elderly population is expanding at a rapid pace.   [Figure 4] Drops in Fertility Rate, 1950-2049   As 2050 approaches, both countries will face a demographic crisis with far-reaching consequences. Several critical challenges are anticipated. First, a declining population, particularly within the working-age demographic, will lead to severe labor shortages. Second, a fiscal crisis is likely to emerge due to the escalating costs of social welfare, driven by an aging population. Rising healthcare expenses and increasing pressure on the pension systern will further exacerbate financial instability. Third, the risk of local depopulation will intensify as younger generations increasingly concentrate in metropolitan areas. As urban migration accelerates, fertility rates in rural regions are expected to decline even further, placing these areas at risk of long-term socioeconomic decline and potential extinction. As Sagara and Han highlight, addressing these challenges is imperative for future generations; however, the current generation continues to defer difficult but necessary policy solutions.   Lastly, the future generations of Japan and South Korea share a common identity as advanced nations, characterized by their commitment to universal values as democratic states, their possession of cutting-edge technologies, and their high standard of living as leading global economies. According to the EAI public opinion survey ([Figure 5]), younger generations in both countries exhibit significantly higher levels of mutual affinity compared to older generations, particularly the elderly. Unlike the identity-based divisions prevalent among older generations—who often frame relations through the historical dichotomy of “empire vs. colony”—younger generations are less influenced by notions of superiority or inferiority. Instead, as indicated by Park (2025), they tend to evaluate each other through the lens of universal values and shared principles as advanced nations.   [Figure 5] Perceptions of the Other Country by Age Group   For instance, in response to the 2019 trade dispute triggered by Abe’s export restrictions on semiconductor materials, the South Korean government at the time framed the issue as “economic aggression” by Japan. However, younger generations criticized the Abe administration based on principles of “fairness” and “justice,” rather than perceiving it solely through the historical framework of colonial oppression. Similarly, historical issues are increasingly being assessed not just in terms of colonial rule and subjugation, but from a broader human rights perspective.   Furthermore, the primary consumers of Korean and Japanese popular culture are the younger generations. Increased engagement with each other’s cultural products—such as popular music (K-pop/J-pop), cuisine, films and dramas, manga/anime, and literature—correlates with a more positive national image and higher levels of mutual affinity. This cultural exchange reflects a growing convergence in cultural identity among younger generations in both countries.   If the values and identities of future generations are to develop independently, they must not be constrained by the fixed paradigms of the older generation, such as the “anti-Japan” vs. “anti-Korea” divide. However, if the current generation neglects efforts to resolve historical disputes and outstanding issues and instead defers them to future generations, it risks perpetuating intergenerational identity conflicts.   As South Korea and Japan commemorate the 60th anniversary of diplomatic normalization, concerns and uncertainties driven by leadership risks have, in many ways, overshadowed optimism for the future of bilateral relations. This makes it all the more imperative to adopt a long-term, strategic perspective and collaborate in jointly shaping a shared future. Crucially, this vision must be informed by and reflective of the experiences and aspirations of future generations. ■   References   Baek, Seoin. 2025. “Korea-Japan AGI for Science, Science for AGI Cooperation.” In Korea-Japan Joint Work on World 2050. EAI-KF-API Working Paper Series.   Chun, Chaesung. 2025. “Future Military and Security Environments Toward 2050: Challenges and Opportunities for Korea-Japan Relations.” In Korea-Japan Joint Work on World 2050. EAI-KF-API Working Paper Series.   Han, Joon. 2025. “How can South Korea and Japan Overcome the Impending Population Risk Together?” In Korea-Japan Joint Work on World 2050. EAI-KF-API Working Paper Series.   Harada, Daisuke. 2025. “Prospectives of Cooperation between Japan and Korea toward Carbon Neutrality 2050.” In Korea-Japan Joint Work on World 2050. EAI-KF-API Working Paper Series.   Lee, Junghwan. 2025. “The Long-Term Vision for ROK-Japan Economic Cooperation in the Era of Deglobalization and Shrinking.” In Korea-Japan Joint Work on World 2050. EAI-KF-API Working Paper Series.   Lim, Eunjung. 2025. “2050 South Korea-Japan Cooperation in Energy and Climate Change-Related Areas.” In Korea-Japan Joint Work on World 2050. EAI-KF-API Working Paper Series.   Ogi, Hirohito. 2025. “Adjusting Net Imbalances of Benefits in Complex Geopolitics: Foundational Security Cooperation between Japan and South Korea.” In Korea-Japan Joint Work on World 2050. EAI-KF-API Working Paper Series.   Park, Jisoo. 2025. “Youth as Catalysts: Building a Renewed Momentum for ROK-Japan Relations.” In Korea-Japan Joint Work on World 2050. EAI-KF-API Working Paper Series.   Sagara, Yoshiyuki. 2025. “Declining Population, Increasing Human-Machine Teaming.” In Korea-Japan Joint Work on World 2050. EAI-KF-API Working Paper Series.   Shiono, Makoto. 2025. “Safety and Ethics Guidelines for AI Cooperation between South Korea and Japan.” In Korea-Japan Joint Work on World 2050. EAI-KF-API Working Paper Series.   ■ Yul Sohn is President of East Asia Institute (EAI) and Professor at Yonsei University.     ■ Edited by Chaerin Kim, Research Assistant     For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | [email protected]    

Yul Sohn 2025-04-01Views : 5963
Commentary Issue Briefing
The China Challenge Prompts Recovery of a Strained ROK-Japan Relations: Analyzing ROK-Japan Relations Through the 9th Joint Korea-Japan Public Opinion Survey

[Editor's Note] Korea-Japan relations have been strained for the past 3 years as the feelings of fatigue between the two citizens has been steadily increasing due to the Korean Supreme Court’s ruling on the forced wartime labor in October 2018. Bilateral cooperation to reorganize the world order after COVID-19 also remains bleak. The East Asia Institue (EAI, President Yul Sohn) and Genron NPO (President Yasushi Kudo) conducted the “9th Joint Korea-Japan Public Opinion Poll.” Based on the results of the survey, this issue briefing examines the differences in public opinion between the two countries on security and economic cooperation. This briefing also analyzes the Korean public’s call to improve ROK-Japan relations and increase cooperation. President Sohn argues that ROK-Japan relations should be re-examined under the intensified U.S.-China strategic competition and the possible post-pandemic global risks. He also states that Japan should abandon its one-track approach and understand the Korean’s preference for “future-oriented” cooperation. Additionally, the next Korean administration should respond to public opinion and strive towards the reconstruction of ROK-Japan relations.     On September 28. 2021 the East Asia Institute (EAI) and Genron NPO released the results of the 9th Korea-Japan Joint Public Opinion Poll. The most notable result of this survey was the increased call made by the public for the improvement of Korea-Japan relations and their close cooperation. Since the ROK Supreme Court ruling on the wartime forced labor in October 2018, the public’s feeling of fatigue regarding a strained bilateral relationship has grown. As the relations between the two governments have come to a standstill, the two countries have been faced with considerable economic and strategic costs. Bilateral trade and investments have decreased, coordination and cooperation over the North Korean nuclear issues are difficult, and mutual distancing and slander have reduced diplomatic influence of the two states at the international stage. Currently, it is difficult to conceive of bilateral cooperation in the areas of the COVID-19 preventive measures, securing vaccines, and preparing for the post-COVID-19 world order.   This trend might change. In Japan, a political change took place when Prime Minister Abe, who had been at the center of the anti-Korean sentiment for the past year, was replaced by Prime Minister Suga and on September 29, by Prime Minister Kishida. With events such as the upcoming Korean Presidential election in Korea, the two countries are facing a fluid political situation. Now, citizens of both countries are sending signals for mutual cooperation whilst criticizing the government’s sluggish efforts to improve bilateral relations.   The results of this year’s survey demonstrate that the impression of the other country has improved along with the increased demand for the recovery of the bilateral relationship. The demand was stronger on the Korean side than on the Japanese side. This change should be understood in the context of the perceived change in the external environment, rather than of the internal dynamic of bilateral relations such as the progress in the negotiations of pending bilateral issues. Based on the recent public opinion surveys, I argue that the increasing demand for improved ROK-Japan relations, particularly on the Korean side, are brought on by the intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition and the rising concern over the China challenge. Under a perceived threat from China, the Korean public demands an improved ROK-Japan relationship cooperating through various channels including the U.S.-ROK-Japan trilateral security cooperation. But, the reaction from Japanese public is different, supporting the government policy line that keeps distancing from Korea and uses the existing strategic initiatives including the QUAD, the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision(FOIP), and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP).   The survey results pose two challenges to Korea. The first is the gap between the public and the government. Solutions need to be made on how to reduce the state of decoupling between the government and the public’s position on improving ROK-Japan relations and ROK-Japan cooperation (specifically, ROK-U.S.-Japan security cooperation, Quad cooperation, solution to the forced labor issues, etc.). The second challenge is the gap between the Korean public and the Japanese public. How to narrow the gap between the lukewarm Japanese public opinion on improving bilateral relations needs to be addressed. The aforementioned challenges are tasks that the next Korean President needs to take on.   1. The Korean Public Appraises “Future-Oriented Cooperation”   As shown in Figure 1, the “negative” Japanese public opinion toward Korea was expressed in the June 2019 survey. The negative perception of 49.9% reflects the Japanese government’s full-fledged campaign charging that the South Korean Supreme Court’s ruling in October 2018 on the wartime forced labor was a violation of the postwar international legal order. On the other hand, The negative perception of Japan in the Korean public which reached 71.6% was clearly expressed in the July 2020 survey, reflecting events such as, but not limited to, the Abe administration’s export control over chemical materials used for semiconductor production in South Korea, and security conflicts over the end of GSOMIA. It is interesting to note that this trend reveals the different perceptions of the Korea-Japan conflict between the two countries. While the Japanese public has expressed dissatisfaction and anger with the Korean government’s handling of the Supreme Court, the Korean public has displayed similar sentiments toward the Japanese government’s retaliatory measure. The public opinion of the two countries is in line with the stance of each government.     Perception of the Other Country     The dissatisfaction and anger of the public in the two countries decreased in a year. Japan witnessed a 5.9% increase in favorability and a 3.6% decrease in unfavorability in 2020, while South Korea noticed an 8.2% increase in favorability and an 8.4 decrease in unfavorability in 2021. The favorable impression of Japan increased from the lowest 12.3% in 2020 to 20.5% and the negative impression decreased from 71.6 percent in 2020 to 63.2%.   However, the negative perception of Korea in Japan increased slightly compared to the previous year, and the favorable impression decreased. Although the Japanese public’s favorable view towards Korea continued to decline from 2016 to 2019 (29.1%→26.9%→22.9%→20%), from 2020, there was a 5.9% rebound in favorability which was maintained to the current year. The unfavorable impression has also maintained a somewhat downwards trend. If this trend persists, we can confirm the bottom rock for the worsening of relations and the downward inelasticity of both countries.     Positions the Two Countries Should Take on ROK-Japan relations     The call for the improvement of ROK-Japan relations following the increased favorable perception of Japan is a natural and expected result. As shown in Figure 2, Korea has strongly expressed the need to improve relations that have continuously deteriorated due to history problems, trade conflicts and controversy over GSOMIA. 45.8% of Korean respondents expressed that conflicts should be overcome in a “future-oriented” way and 28.8% have expressed that at the least, political confrontation should be avoided. Therefore, an overwhelming majority of 74.6% recognize that the current status of confrontation should be avoided. In the case of Japan, 54.8% of the respondents, more than half, support this.   The support for overcoming conflict through a “future-oriented” way can also be found in the public opinion regarding the history problem, one of the main causes of the deteriorating bilateral relations. In Figure 3, compared to the previous year of 24.5%, there was an increase of about 14% in which 38.1% of Korean respondents believed that “as future-oriented cooperation (security, economy, health, climate change, etc.) between the two countries is facilitated, the historical dispute will also be gradually resolved.” The sharp decrease from 43.6% to 21.7% in the view that “no matter the state of cooperation and relations, the history dispute will not be resolved” shows that Korean citizens have a significant focus on “future-oriented cooperation.” Similarly, only 32.6% support the government’s current solution to the conflict regarding the Supreme Court’s ruling on forced labor. The prevailing opinion is that various alternatives should be sought (Figure 4).     ROK-Japan Relations and the History Dispute       Ways to Resolve Tensions Caused by ROK Supreme Court Decision     2. Anxiety about the Future leads to ROK-Japan Cooperation   What is the future envisioned by people who support “future-oriented cooperation”? Does it simply mean that “steps towards the future should be made without clinging to the past such as history issues?” The clue to this answer can be found in the changes in Korean public perception of security and economic issues. On the public opinion regarding “economically important countries,” the U.S. (74% in 2020 to 86.7% in 2021) and Japan (41.7% to 52.4%) increased by 12.7%p and 9.7%p respectively, compared to the previous year. Oh the other hand, China remained relatively the same from 78.7% to 80.4% (Figure 5). This trend is surprising, considering the fact that during the COVID-19 pandemic, China recorded positive growth and widened its gap with the U.S. Meanwhile, on the public opinion on “countries that are perceived as a military threat,” following North Korea (85.7%), China dramatically increased 17.5%p compared to the previous year to 61.8%. In contrast, Japan fell by 5.5% compared to the previous year to 38.6% (Figure 6). It is important to note that the “negative impression” of China has noticed a strong increase over the past two years from 51.5% in 2019 and 59.4% in 2020 to 73.8% in 2021. On the other hand, over the past two years, the “favorable impression” was halved to 22.2% in 2019 and 16.3% in 2020 to 10.7% in 2021 (Figure 7).     Countries that are Economically Important to Korea       Countries/Areas that are perceived to be Military Threat       Korean’s Impression on China     The aforementioned results suggest that for the Korean public, the future is linked to the China issue. Assuming that the biggest variable for the future security and prosperity of Korea is the U.S-China strategic competition, China’s challenge and the surge in threat perception and dislike for China becomes the main driver of Korea’s perception of foreign relations. In this context, the increase in favorable perceptions of the U.S. and Japan contrasts with the increase in perceived threat and hostility towards China.   The tendency of the Korean public to view ROK-Japan relations as part of the U.S.-ROK-Japan cooperation to keep China in check amid the U.S.-China competition can be seen in Figure 8. This graph displays the answers to the question “why the ROK-Japan relationship is important.” “Because we are important trading partners (79.7%)” and “because we are neighboring countries (62.4%) are followed by “because ROK-Japan cooperation is mutually beneficial amidst the U.S.-China tension,” which increased by 11.2%p compared to the previous year. “Because we share common security interests as allies of the U.S.” and “because we share common values like democracy” increased by 9.6% and 8.1%p respectively compared to the previous year.     Reasons for the Importance of ROK-Japan relations     Upon examining the trend in public opinion of specific issues as shown in Figure 9, the public opinion that Korea, the U.S., and Japan should strengthen trilateral military-security cooperation increased from 53.6% in 2020 to 64.2% in 2021. The number of respondents that answered “neither” decreased from 35.4% to 27.5%. Furthermore, 40% of respondents answered that they believe China’s rise should be kept in check (Figure 10). Regarding South Korea’s participation in the Quad, Figure 11 shows that 51.1% are for and 18.1% are against participation. Considering that the Quad is a new cooperative platform led by the U.S. and Japan to balance China, the favorable public opinion toward Quad reflects the China threat sentiment. In addition, in Figure 12, when asked what response should be taken regarding the suppression of human rights in China, 51% of respondents say that they should participate in the tough response led by the U.S. and other countries. It can be said that the China balancing sentiment rather than a deep interest in protecting international human rights, played a bigger role in this response.     Views on Strengthening the ROK-US-Japan Trilateral Security Alliance     In conclusion, uncertainty over the future due to the U.S-China strategic competition and the China challenge is expressed through the increased support for international responses such as military security cooperation between South Korea, Japan, and the U.S., Quad membership, Korea-Japan economic cooperation, and international solidarity on human rights issues. All of the aforementioned cases require Korea-Japan cooperation.     Reasons why the ROK-US-Japan Trilateral Security Alliance Should be Strengthened       Possibility of Joining the Quad       The Need for Tough Response on the Suppression of Human Rights in China     3. How to deal with the Divergence in Public Opinion between Japan and Korea   The Japanese public opinion also reflects U.S.-China tension and the Chinese threat. Perception of China as a military threat increased by 7.1%p compared to the previous year to 70.5% which was close to North Korea (76.5%) (Figure 6). Japanese public opinion also supported the restoration of ROK-Japan relations (Figure 13). Just as the support rose by 9.9% compared to the previous year in Korea, Japan also noticed an increase of 7.9%. While 71.1% of Koreans supported the strengthening of relations, only 46.7% of Japanese showed support, however. The Japanese public does not have high expectations for future-oriented cooperation with Korea and instead place focus on the settlement of the ongoing historical disputes. There is a tendency to converge on Korea’s past principal position (“future-oriented cooperation will be difficult without solving historical disputes”) (Figure 3). Therefore, the response regarding the strengthening of ROK-U.S.-Japan military security cooperation is lukewarm. The response to neither agree nor disagree to the trilateral security alliance only slightly increased from 50.6% in 2020 to 52% in 2021. The total amount of respondents that agreed decreased from 38.9% in 2020 to 36% in 2021 (Figure 9). Japan showed a negative response to Korea’s participation in the Quad (only 11.4% were in favor) and only 21.8% of respondents believed viewed Korea as an important economic partner despite Korea being Japan’s third-largest trading partner. The need for ROK-Japan economic cooperation also slightly decreased from 47.1% to 44% (Figure 14).     Efforts to Improve ROK-Japan Relations       Importance of ROK-Japan Economic Cooperation for the Future of South Korea/ Japan     There are two possible explanations as to the lukewarm response of Japan about improving ROK-Japan relations. First, in order to meet the China challenge, Japan maintains existing diplomatic initiatives such as the Quad, FOIP, and CPTPP while the Korean public expresses renewed interest in restoring the ROK-U.S.-Japan trilateral cooperation and ROK-Japan cooperation. As Korea is not a member of any of these initiatives, there is little incentive for Tokyo to restore bilateral cooperation. And the public most likely follows this position. Second, the primary attention of the Japanese public has focused on elements that can influence ROK-Japan relations such as the pending history issues (the wartime forced labor and the comfort women issues). In other words, unless the Korean government offers a reasonable solution to the historical dispute, it will be difficult for them to show genuine interest in improving bilateral relations.   Korea-Japan relations have entered a new stage in face of the new international environment brought on by the forces of the U.S.-China strategic competition and the China challenge. Under the new Biden administration, the U.S. has emphasized security cooperation between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan in order to respond to a rising China and strongly called on Korea and Japan to improve relations, emphasizing that historical issues should not undermine the core strategic interests for the region. It is the Korean public who accurately recognizes this situation and supports this idea. They propose a future that differs from the “future’s past” that previously dominated the ROK-Japan relations discourse. The ROK-Japan relations are to re-examine, keeping in mind the intensifying U.S.-china strategic cooperation, the China challenge, and global risks from the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a need for the Japanese public and the new administration to accurately understand the changes in the Korean public opinion and abandon its one-track approach that ties history issues to the rest of security and economic cooperation. The next Korean government should also promote and reconstruct ROK-Japan relations in a way that adapts to the accelerating changes by corresponding to the newly formed public opinion. ■     ■ Yul Sohn is president of the East Asia Institute and professor at the Graduate School of International Studies (GSIS) and Underwood International College at Yonsei University. He served as president of the Korean Association of International Studies in 2019, dean of GSIS from 2012 to 2016, and president of the Association for Contemporary Japan in 2012. Before joining Yonsei University, Sohn taught at Chung-Ang University and was a visiting scholar at the University of Tokyo; Waseda University; University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill; and University of California, Berkeley. Sohn has served on several government advisory committees, including the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the South Korean Ministry of Trade Korean National Diplomatic Academy, the Northeast Asian History Foundation, and the Korea Foundation. Sohn has written extensively on Japanese and East Asian political economics, East Asian regionalism, and global governance. His recent publications include Sohn received his Ph.D. in political science from the University of Chicago.     ■ Typeset by Ha Eun Yoon Research Associate     For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | [email protected]  

Yul Sohn 2021-11-01Views : 27576