동아시아연구원(원장 손열)은 우크라이나 사태의 안보적 함의와 바이든 정부의 2022년 대북 정책에 대한 전망을 논의하기 위해 앤드류 여(Andrew Yeo) 브루킹스 연구소(Brookings Institution) 한국 석좌(미국 가톨릭대학교 교수)와 대담을 진행했습니다. 여 교수는 미국이 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁을 계기로 권위주의에 대항하는 민주주의 국가들의 연대 공고화에 성공했다고 평가합니다. 그러나 다른 한편, 본 사태로 인해 대북 이슈가 미국의 우선순위에서 밀렸다고 분석하며, 북미대화 재개의 동력을 얻기 위한 방안으로 대북제재 완화를 제시합니다. 아울러, 향후 한미동맹 차원에서 윤석열 차기정부가 대통령 집무실을 용산 국방부 청사로 이전하기에 앞서 미국과 충분한 조율을 마쳐야 할 것이라고 강조합니다.

연구원은 서구 지식계가 대북 전략 및 북한 연구를 주도하고 있는 현실을 극복하고 보다 균형 있는 북한과 한반도 문제 연구 및 통일전략과 동아시아전략을 복원하고자 통일부 후원으로 영문 웹저널 를 운영합니다. 본 웹저널은 매달 1회 저명한 북한 전문가 1인을 인터뷰하여 북한 문제에 관한 시의적절한 분석을 제시합니다.

interviews leading North Korea experts for timely analysis on North Korea once a month. For this month, we invited Andrew Yeo (SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies, Brookings Institution; Professor, Catholic University of America) to analyze the implications of the Russia-Ukraine war on East Asia and discuss prospects for the Biden and Yoon administrations’ North Korea policies. While the Ukraine crisis has distracted the world from North Korea, Professor Yeo claims that its weapons development remains a grave concern for the U.S. and its allies. In this regard, he discusses the potential of sanctions relief in inducing North Korea to return to the negotiation table. Professor Yeo further discusses the U.S. response to the South Korean presidential elections — while the pro-U.S. Yoon administration may be conducive for strengthening the ROK-U.S. partnership, he emphasizes that it will not blindly give in to U.S. demands. Finally, Professor Yeo notes that U.S.-ROK military coordination is a key precondition for the relocation of the presidential office and other security matters.

The interview is comprised of three parts – “Part I: Russia-Ukraine War and East Asia,” “Part II: Biden Administration’s North Korea Policy in 2022,” and “Part III: Policy Recommendations for the New South Korean Government.”

I. The Russia-Ukraine War and East Asia: “Never waste a good crisis”

• The Russia-Ukraine War attests to the idea that “military coercion and invasion are a reality.” Defense and deterrence are still highly relevant in terms of international security.
• Professor Yeo states that “the Biden administration has done very well in rallying allies and partners around the world,” not only in Europe, but also in Asia. He claims that “the Biden administration has taken advantage of the Ukrainian situation to try to strengthen its allies and partners and sustain the order it prefers, which is a liberal international order.”

II. Implications of the War on U.S.-China Relations: “Xi Jinping is in a bad spot”

• Professor Yeo says that “Beijing did not expect an all-out invasion ... and fell into wishful thinking that Russia would only compel and threaten Ukraine, but not actually engage in a full-scale invasion of a sovereign country, which Beijing also supports.”
• “So we find Xi Jinping on this defensive, where it has to weigh and calculate its relationship with the West, with the U.S. and the EU on one hand and Russia with the other.” In other words, “Beijing is learning what it means to be isolated from the international community, especially the West.”

III. Biden’s North Korea Policy in 2022

• Professor Yeo casts doubts on the effectiveness of sanctions, stating that “North Korea has imposed its own sanctions with the border lockdown due to the pandemic and that's had a stronger effect in terms of closing off North Korea from the rest of the world than any UN or U.S. sanctions.”
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• He claims that the “U.S. should counterintuitively actually think about releasing some of the sanctions and trying to draw North Korea out of its shell.” In order to enhance security on the Korean Peninsula, Professor Yeo suggests that “engagement or dialogue” is necessary. “It wouldn’t be a huge loss to offer some level of sanctions relief in return (for engagement).”

IV. U.S. Viewpoint on the South Korean Presidential Elections

• “At a broad level, Americans, particularly policymakers in Washington including the Biden administration, are happy with the election outcomes.” Provided that the Biden administration aims to “establish standards and rules that can persist down the road,” it sees Yoon as “a partner to work with and establish common standards and rules that can establish a rules-based order for the region.”
• However, he notes that this does not necessarily entail full South Korean compliance to U.S.-led initiatives in the Indo-Pacific. While the Yoon administration will be more vocal towards China, it will still maintain friendly relations in order to secure economic ties.

V. ROK-U.S. Consultation Required for the Relocation of the Presidential Office

• The Yoon administration has been keen on moving the presidential office from the Cheongwadae (Blue House) to Yongsan, where the Ministry of National Defense is located. Professor Yeo notes that this requires “coordination between the U.S. and South Korean militaries for command and control.” Whether the Yoon administration’s decision to relocate can garner U.S support “remains to be seen.” ■

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VI. Biography

■ Andrew Yeo_ SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies at Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies. He is also a professor of politics and director of Asian studies at The Catholic University of America. His most recent book publication is State, Society and Markets in North Korea with Cambridge University Press. Yeo received his doctorate in government from Cornell University, and bachelor's in psychology and international studies (magna cum laude) from Northwestern University.

■ Typeset by Seung Yeon Lee,Research Associate
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