니시노 준야(Nishino Junya) 게이오대 교수는 일본이 자체적인 방위 태세와 미일 동맹 강화, 국제사회와의 연대를 통해 점증하는 북핵 위협에 대응하고 있다고 설명합니다. 북한이 국방발전 5개년 계획과 핵무력정책법을 발표하고, 지난 10월 전술핵 운용부대의 실전훈련을 단행한 것은, 김정은 정권이 국방력 강화를 통해 미국과의 협상에서 전략적 우위를 점하려는 의도에서 비롯된 것이라고 봅니다. 이런 맥락에서 니시노 교수는 앞으로 북핵 문제를 해결하기는 무척 어려워졌다고 보고, 한미일 안보협력은 우선 대북 억지력 강화에 집중해야 한다고 강조합니다. 그러나 동시에 궁극적인 문제 해결을 위해서는 비핵화 로드맵을 포함한 보다 포괄적인 대북 정책 마련이 필요하다고 주장합니다.

I. Japan's View of the North Korea Missile and Nuclear Threats

• On October 4th, North Korea tested an intermediate-range ballistic missile that flew over Japanese airspace. In response to Pyongyang’s increasing nuclear threats, professor Nishino Junya claims that “Missile defense system may be insufficient… The move comes as Japan is trying to develop its own standoff missiles, capable of attacking enemy vessels from outside their firing range.”

• He elaborates on Japan’s defense policy, which is enhancing Japan’s defensive capabilities, strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance and expanding cooperation with neighboring countries in the region. Meanwhile, Japan seems to have a fundamental shift in its thinking about a national defense that professor Nishino mentions that “Japan is planning to have revisions to the National Security Strategy done by the end of this year.”

II. Korea-Japan Relations: Strategic Priorities and Historical Issues

• Relations between South Korea and Japan have been strained over disputes. Professor Nishino says that “Japan welcomes the Yoon administration’s commitment to improvebilateral ties... and after the summer, the Japanese government began showing signs of greater openness towards Korea.”

• Yoon administration has recently announced its Indo-Pacific strategy. He mentions that “This leaves room for diplomatic cooperation between the two, in the same breath with Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific Policy line.” • To develop South Korea-Japan relations in a forward-looking manner, he claims that “It is necessary to restore bilateral trust between the defense authorities of the two countries... Ties should evolve and go beyond countering North Korea and should cooperate for a peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific.”

Ⅲ. Japan’s Support for the Yoon Government’s Audacious Initiative

• Professor Nishino is pessimistic about the possibility of DPRK’s denuclearization. He mentions that “By implementing the five-year military plan and adopting a new law on its nuclear forces that includes a condition of using nuclear weapons against non-nuclear powers, North Korea seems to boost nuclear capabilities for revising the status quo and buttressing its bargaining power against Washington.”

• Professor Nishino highlights the need for South Korea-Japan coordination to strengthen deterrence and prepare a long-term roadmap. In addition, he suggests that “The two countries could deepen diplomatic ties between them based on their new Indo-Pacific strategies.” ■

■ Nishino Junya_Nishino Junya is a Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Politics, Keio University. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from Yonsei University. His research focuses on contemporary Korean politics, international relations of East Asia and Japan-Korea relations. Previously he served as a Special Analyst on Korean Affairs in the Intelligence and Analysis Service of the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2006-2007), and was a Special Assistant on Korean Politics at the Japanese Embassy in Seoul (2002-2004).

■ Typeset by Junghoo Park, Research Associate
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