[Editor's Note]
동아시아연구원 는 올해 초부터 지속된 북한의 미사일 도발에 대한 미국 정책커뮤니티의 반응과 새로 취임하는 윤석열 정부와 바이든 행정부 간 대북정책 협력 전망을 논의하기 위해 제니 타운 38노스 공동대표를 초청하여 대담을 진행했습니다. 타운 공동대표는 최근 일련의 북한 미사일 시험 발사는 대내정치 차원에서 김정은 정권이 가시적인 정치적 성과를 보여주기 위한 목적에서 비롯되었다고 분석했습니다. 다가오는 한미정상회담은 윤석열 정부 시대 한미관계 강화 방향 및 미국 외교정책 무대에서 북한문제가 차지하는 비중을 알 수 있는 상징적인 행사가 될 것이라 전망했습니다. 아울러, 미국의 정책 커뮤니티는 미중 경쟁 문제에만 매몰될 것이 아니라 동아시아지역 개별국가 및 양자관계에도 주목해야 할 것이며, 대북정책 논의과정에서 한국 전문가들의 관점을 더욱 적극적으로 반영해야 한다고 제언했습니다.
1. The Socio-economic and Political Context of Pyongyang’s Missile Tests
- Ms. Town views that Pyongyang’s weapons proliferation gives Kim “concrete tangible successes” for the path he set forward for North Korea, serving as a tool to showcase the tenacity of his leadership against the backdrop dire socio-economic circumstances in North Korea.
- On top of that, greater U.S.-China strategic tension discouraged the two countries from cooperating on North Korea issues. In turn, “China and Russia have continued to advocate for sanctions relief for North Korea for humanitarian and livelihood purposes.”
- Under such a political environment, Ms. Town forecasts that “we are not going to get the same sort of international response we got in the past” outside of unilateral actions.
2. Prospects for ROK-U.S. Relations Under the Yoon Administration
- Ms. Town states that Yoon’s plans to further develop and deepen ROK-U.S. ties have “been largely welcomed from Washington as a way to repair some of the mistrust that has grown over the past five years between Trump and Moon.”
- Regarding the ROK-U.S. summit set to unfold ten days after Yoon’s inauguration, Ms. Town predicts that the summit will likely be a symbolic meeting, signaling Yoon’s aspirations to “get off on the right foot” on ROK-U.S. relations.
- Nonetheless, the summit does show that “despite what’s going on in Russia, South Korea and the North Korea issue, the Korean Peninsula are not a low priority.”
3. Policy Response from Washington to North Korea Issues
- Ms. Town claims that North Korea’s recent provocations have generated greater interest on not on North Korea issues, but also on the Korean Peninsula in general in Washington, reflected by a notable increase in the number of relevant events, research, and outreach.
- “North Korea’s actions and continued provocative behavior is a real manifestation of what happens when we get too focused on great power competition.” In this regard, Ms. Town states that Washington’s tendency to focus on great power competition should be complemented with research into how that strategic environment affects individual countries such as South Korea and bilateral relationships in the region.
4. Incorporating South Korean Voices into Washington’s Policy Circle
- Ms. Town posits that policy circles in Washington are “always looking for ways to highlight South Korean voices and perspectives on the region, so that it isn’t fully dominated by U.S. narrative across the political spectrum.”
- She views that more Korean perspectives available in English will “help the global community better understand the concerns, threat perceptions, and challenges that we’re dealing with collectively.”
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■ 담당 및 편집: 이승연 _EAI 연구원
문의: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 205) | slee@eai.or.kr
