[Global NK Newsletter] Possibility of ROK-DPRK Conventional Warfare

  • 2024-01-17

December 11, 2023

[Global NK Commentary] Crisis Management Strategies for a Potential Conventional Escalation on the Korean Peninsula

Ho-ryung Lee, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, explores the possibility of a conventional warfare on the Korean Peninsula drawing on the cases of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict. Based on the analysis of North Korea’s weapons and tactics, the consolidation of an anti-U.S. coalition, and the remilitarization of the JSA due to the termination of the 9.19 Military Agreement, Lee assesses that North Korea`s capability for a surprise attack has been enhanced. As North Korea attempts to test the military readiness of the ROK-U.S. alliance by increasing strategic uncertainty and vulnerability on the Peninsula, Lee urges South Korea to bolster its defense posture while also developing measures to mitigate military tensions and uncertainties.

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