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Han-Kwon Kim, a Professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, provides an analysis of Xi Jinping’s “Work Report” to the 20th Party Congress, which includes an ideological and political framework for understanding the likely direction of Chinese domestic and foreign policy for the next five years. Dr. Kim claims that the chances of China shifting its foreign policy seem low as the report contained indirect criticisms of the United States by opposing all forms of hegemonism, coercive politics, Cold War thinking, interference in domestic affairs, and double standards. In addition, as 2027 marks the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the People’s Liberation Army of China and the time Xi Jinping should decide whether to run for a fourth consecutive term, he predicts that Chinese leadership could move toward armed unification by 2027. Accordingly, Dr. Kim suggests that South Korea should investigate possible future scenarios in the Taiwan Strait and prepare for concrete countermeasures.

Heung Seog Lee, Professor at Kookmin University and Secretary-General at Global Defense Research Forum, claims that the institutionalization of the Suryong’s rule and Party-Government-Military Complex in accordance with the revolutionary tradition has made the North Korean regime’s hereditary succession possible. Until now, North Korea has not established an institutional mechanism for a contingency of the Suryong, as preparing for the absence of the leadership could trigger a power struggle and jeopardize the transition of power. Notably, signs of change have been detected after rumors of Kim Jong-un’s ill health and regime instability arose in 2020. North Korea revised party rules to create the post of a “first secretary,” who would act as a representative of Kim Jong-un and share Kim’s executive power in his absence or as his substitute. Dr. Lee highlights this is worthwhile to focus on as the changes in the Suryong system require a new method of succession and can provide maneuvering space for alternative political forces to emerge accordingly. 

Ji Hwan Hwang, a professor at the University of Seoul, indicates that the current international order seems to provide a better strategic environment for Pyongyang as the relationships between North Korea, China, and Russia have been growing increasingly tight after the Russia-Ukraine war, which is, in turn, makes it harder for South Korea to handle the denuclearization issue. In the situation that North Korea is employing aggressive foreign policy and producing provocative measures, Professor Hwang stresses the importance of strengthening its alliance with the United States and closely consulting the ways to enhance the effectiveness of extended deterrence.

In this month’s NK Update, Minah Kang, Ph.D. Candidate at John Hopkins University discusses the U.S.-ROK combined military exercises, suspicion of arms trade between Russia and North Korea, and the legalization of North Korea’s nuclear force policy.