The survey found 60.3 percent of Japanese think China’s regional clout in the coming decade will increase, while 52 percent of Americans, 80 percent of South Koreans and 82.5 percent of Chinese share that view.
“The public in the four countries see changes in Asia over the next 10 years will evolve on the back of China’s increasing influence,” Yasushi Kudo, president of the Genron NPO , told a news conference in Tokyo.
The poll surveyed roughly 1,000 Japanese and South Koreans, 2,000 Americans and 3,100 Chinese. It was conducted by Genron in Japan, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in the U.S., East Asia Institute in South Korea and Horizon Research Consultancy Group in China.
Meanwhile, despite Washington’s vaunted military, political and economic pivot toward the region, 46.2 percent of Japanese, 52 percent of Americans, 52.2 percent of South Koreans and 40.6 percent of Chinese believe U.S. influence in Asia will not increase but will remain static over the 10-year period.
Kudo said the U.S. rebalancing has yet to be fully understood in some countries. Only 22.9 percent of Japanese, 31 percent of Americans, 28.8 percent of South Koreans and 29.3 percent of Chinese believe Washington’s clout will increase.
Asked which country would deal “responsibly” with global issues, 14.9 percent of Japanese believe “a great deal” and “a fair amount” that China would do so. Thirty-four percent of Americans agreed.
By contrast, 90.1 percent of Chinese and 70.6 percent of South Koreans felt that China would handle worldwide issues responsibly.
About 77 percent of Japanese believe the U.S. would deal with global problems in a responsible manner, while 58 percent of Americans see Japan in that way, according to the survey.
Meanwhile, the survey found that people in the U.S. and China are concerned that China’s burgeoning military might and U.S. presence in the region could be a possible source of conflict.
About 79 percent of Americans saw it as “very likely” and “somewhat likely” that the growth of China’s military power could be a potential source of conflict in Asia, while 58.9 percent of the Chinese thought likewise.
In the meantime, 63 percent of Americans found it “very likely” and “somewhat likely” that the U.S. military presence in Asia and the Pacific could spark conflict in the region, while 65.2 percent of Chinese concurred.
The poll also revealed reluctance among the U.S. public to send their troops to deal with conflict in Asia. Asked about what situations might warrant the use of U.S. force, 33 percent of Americans answered China’s initiation of a military conflict with Japan over disputed islands, while 64 percent of them expressed opposition to the use of force in such a case.
Japan and China are at odds over the sovereignty of the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. Beijing claims the islets, which it calls Diaoyu.
“The American public doesn’t know the details of the dispute about these islands,” said Ivo H. Daalder, president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. “The idea of going to war over disputed islands in the East China Sea is a difficult one to grasp for the average American and yet one in three says the answer should be yes.”
Daalder added: “If one in three Americans can say yes under these circumstances, once the context becomes clear, and there is a confrontation, and the United States is willing to make the political case for why going to war using U.S. troops is the important thing to do, support should rise significantly, above one in three Americans.”
In other situations in the survey, 48 percent of Americans favor the use of U.S. troops if North Korea attacks Japan, and 47 percent are in favor of their use if North Korea were to invade South Korea.