Author

Dong Sun Lee is an associate professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University.

Abstract

This paper presents prospects on the future orientation of the security order in Asia and proposes a security strategy for South Korea. By 2025 it is likely that four dominant powers will exist in the Asia region. As the primary great powers in the region, China and the United States would form their own spheres of influence, compete with each other in a limited way, and lead the regional politics. The United States has a decisive advantage in maritime regions having both superior air and naval forces whereas China will exercise its stronger land power on the continent. Other powers such as India and Russia will be unable to compete for hegemonic power. Instead, they will play a supplementary role as moderators while maintaining their own independence. Japan will actively support the United States by seeking to restrain China's rise. Given this expected future political outcome, the most feasible security strategy for South Korea would be to take on a balancing policy toward the neighboring continental countries of China and North Korea. In this regard, South Korea should engage in military cooperation with other maritime countries such as Japan and the United States in terms of naval forces and to further concentrate on the reinforcement of its own ground and air forces. It would also be beneficial for South Korea to strengthen militarily cooperation with India or Russia depending on the situation.

The full text in Korean is available here