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With President Barack Obama setting out the policies for his second term in office, there will be much focus on how he will shape his approaches to East Asia. His first term in office was characterized by a “pivot” to Asia as his administration recognized the growing strategic importance of being engaged in the region, particularly with the rise of China. As part of the Council on Foreign Relations expert roundup, EAI Chair of Asia Security Initiative Center Professor Chaesung Chun provides his policy recommendations for the Obama administration’s Asia policy. Although Professor Chun sees continuity in the region, he outlines how the United States will still face some major challenges in the future. In responding to this, he believes that the United States will be recognized as playing a beneficial role if it is able to deal wisely with some the key flashpoints in the region. The Expert Roundup is a new monthly feature of the Council of Councils initiative launched by the Council on Foreign Relations, which brings together the views and thoughts of partner institutions on current issues. The East Asia Institute is one of the founding members of the Council of Councils, an initiative consisting of twenty leading foreign policy institutes from around the world.
Chair of Asian Security Center Chaesung Chun in the Council of Councils Expert Roundup Continuity will be the most important feature for the Obama administration's second-term foreign policy, particularly in Asia. On the basis of the achievements during the first term in pivoting American strategic weight to Asia, the new foreign policy team will seek to exercise leadership in the region as an Asia-Pacific power. Another factor that will support the prospect for continuity in Washington's Asia policy is the strategic orientation of the new leaders in East Asia: Except for Japan and North Korea, new leaders in China, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan will continue with the strategic approach of their predecessors. Only the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party and North Korea under the young Kim Jong-un increase unpredictability in the region. Despite this continuity, President Obama will still face four new tasks during his second term: First, the United States needs to elaborate more on the so-called "new forms of great power relationship" with China. Despite announcements from leaders in both countries that a peaceful and stable coexistence of two great powers is possible during a period of power shift, it is still not evident how they will reduce strategic mistrust and heighten the level of cooperation. Second, as the alliance network built by the United States transforms itself from the "hub-and-spoke" model to an "inter-spoke" network to ease tensions between China and its neighbors, Washington's role to encourage cooperation among its alliance partners will become a more important task. For example, faced with rising tensions between South Korea and Japan due to territorial disputes and historical issues, President Obama's role to mediate between these countries will draw much attention. Third, East Asia is suffering from its own regional problems: territorial disputes, rising nationalism, conflicting interpretations of history, and power transition coming from the rise of China. The U.S. attempt to design a new regional architecture should be based upon deep regional sensitivity. Only by understanding the issues affecting East Asians at home will President Obama's Asia policy be able to take root in the region. Fourth, dealing wisely with regional flashpoints, such as the North Korean nuclear problem and the South China Sea dispute, will strengthen U.S. credibility and create a lasting legacy. In particular, since the North Korean nuclear problem originates from the existential instability created after the end of the Cold War, the Obama administration should pursue a more positive initiative in resolving it during his second term in office.
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